Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[BuffaloWeather]

9 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Turned more into a city and immediate southern burbs event. Constant thunder and lightning here in Derby. More than last night. Still no rain, it’s all 5-10 miles to my north. I’d imagine your getting fringed with the storms right now BuffaloWeather. 

Yeah a great lightning show. Looks like round 3 tonight. 

[TugHillMatt]

Wow, you guys in Western NY are getting lots more weather action this week than over here. Your best storms of the summer, coming in September!

[BuffaloWeather]

It's pretty rare to go 3 years in a row with below average snowfall, so at least we have that going for us heading into winter. It hasn't happened since the 1980s. @TugHillMatt

[BuffaloWeather]

Lots of rain last night. 3 day totals are going to be up there. 

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

By late afternoon, attention will be on incoming upper level
trough and associated cold front to south of low pressure which
by this time will be tracking northeast of Lake Superior.
Associated showers and thunderstorms with the front will be
encroaching on the western Niagara Frontier by 00z. Really like
the look of the 00z NSSL- WRF which is spot on right now with
mode, location of convection upstream albeit maybe an hour or
two too slow. Following this idea, expect thunderstorms to roll
across western NY and western Lake Ontario this evening before
settling south toward Southern Tier and east toward North
Country late evening or early overnight.

Convection should hold together initially before diminishing
some after midnight. Though slight risk from SPC is upstream and
our area is within a marginal risk for severe, there is
potential for at least gusty winds to 50 mph and heavy downpours
as the thunderstorms first move into the region as effective
shear and low-level shear are sufficient (boosted by LLJ of
45-50 kts) as are MLCAPES of at least 500J/kg if not toward
1000J/kg. Added enhanced wording for gusty winds and heavy rain
into forecast over WNY. With supporting low well to the north
and front becoming parallel to upper flow, front looks to only
slowly make it to Genesee valley and Finger Lakes by late
tonight. Potential another wave currently over NE/western IA
lifts along this front so main issue late tonight would be
pockets of heavier rain

[wolfie09]

Warm front slowly pushing north..I noticed kbuf, Kroc already reporting S/SW winds, ksyr-kart E/NE as of last update..

[BuffaloWeather]

Got a feeling an event like this is coming for Buffalo this year. How many people were in Buffalo to witness this one, still holds the record for 24 hour snowfall at kbuf. At bottom of page you can see the radar for it, unreal snowfall rates. 

Over two feet of snow fell in about eight hours across most 
of the city of Buffalo and its near northern and eastern suburbs 
during Sunday.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1995-1996&event=G

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, you guys in Western NY are getting lots more weather action this week than over here. Your best storms of the summer, coming in September!

We got nada along the S Shore last night. Really quite the precip total contrast in a pretty short distance this summer.

[DeltaT13]

 

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Got a feeling an event like this is coming for Buffalo this year. How many people were in Buffalo to witness this one, still holds the record for 24 hour snowfall at kbuf. At bottom of page you can see the radar for it, unreal snowfall rates. 

Over two feet of snow fell in about eight hours across most 
of the city of Buffalo and its near northern and eastern suburbs 
during Sunday.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1995-1996&event=G

Incredible event.  I remember this one vividly, however it was a heartbreaker for me as a North Towner.  We were at my grandmas house in West Seneca when it began and the snowfall rates had to be 3-5"/hr.  This forced us to make a hasty departure and head home to North Tonawanda.   As usual, by the time we got home there was virtually bare ground...I was pretty used to this by that point in my life but I always hoped the bands would sneak a little further North.  Back then though, it was very hard to ever see a radar unless you got a glimpse on the weather channel so tracking it real time was almost nonexistent.  

My house was where the arrow is pointing  

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

 

Incredible event.  I remember this one vividly, however it was a heartbreaker for me as a North Towner.  We were at my grandmas house in West Seneca when it began and the snowfall rates had to be 3-5"/hr.  This forced us to make a hasty departure and head home to North Tonawanda.   As usual, by the time we got home there was virtually bare ground...I was pretty used to this by that point in my life but I always hoped the bands would sneak a little further North.  Back then though, it was very hard to ever see a radar unless you got a glimpse on the weather channel so tracking it real time was almost nonexistent.  

My house was where the arrow is pointing  

I did not know you lived in Buffalo before moving to Rochester. I grew up on the west side of Buffalo for this storm and remember jumping out the 2nd story into a giant snowpile in the front of the yard. We lived on Breckenridge road and each side had cars parked as there are no driveways so the entire road was a giant snowpile. That was the storm that set off my fascination with weather. We lived in a duplex my mom/dad on the bottom floor and my uncle/aunt above. We had so much fun making snow castles during that one. 

In regards to the radar, it looks like this was the first real event that it was tracked. 

Buffalo's new Doppler radar was available for this entire event and 
it worked extremely well. The low 0.5 degree elevation angle allowed 
us to pinpoint the location of the snowbands to the nearest mile or 
two around Buffalo ...an immense aid in doing Nowcasts and SPSs. The 
suppression of ground clutter worked perfectly. We were even able to 
see the edge of the Lake Ontario band as far east as Oswego and some 
activity near the southern edge of Georgian Bay. The BUFKIT and 
BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and 
associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake 
Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both 
models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during 
Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but 
the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was 
closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector 
for most of Sunday. 

[DeltaT13]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I did not know you lived in Buffalo before moving to Rochester. I grew up on the west side of Buffalo for this storm and remember jumping out the 2nd story into a giant snowpile in the front of the yard. We lived on Breckenridge road and each side had cars parked as there are no driveways so the entire road was a giant snowpile. That was the storm that set off my fascination with weather. We lived in a duplex my mom/dad on the bottom floor and my uncle/aunt above. We had so much fun making snow castles during that one. 

In regards to the radar, it looks like this was the first real event that it was tracked. 

Buffalo's new Doppler radar was available for this entire event and 
it worked extremely well. The low 0.5 degree elevation angle allowed 
us to pinpoint the location of the snowbands to the nearest mile or 
two around Buffalo ...an immense aid in doing Nowcasts and SPSs. The 
suppression of ground clutter worked perfectly. We were even able to 
see the edge of the Lake Ontario band as far east as Oswego and some 
activity near the southern edge of Georgian Bay. The BUFKIT and 
BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and 
associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake 
Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both 
models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during 
Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but 
the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was 
closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector 
for most of Sunday. 

Oh heck yeah, I'm a Buffalonian at heart (even though I was a North Tonawandan, haha).  Moved to Rochester when I was 22 to start my job at the University or Rochester. 

It was Southwest wind lake effect events that ignited my passion for weather at a very early age, probably around 7 or 8 years old.  I was so baffled by how some places could have feet of snow while my yard had almost none.  I was convinced back then that if Grand Island didnt exist I'd get more snow, Haha! I didnt really have a good idea on the size and scale of lake effect at the time and just wanted to blame something for my frequent heartbreak.  I loved visiting my grandmas house in winter because there was always this outside chance that we'd get a ton of snow, weather was more exciting when you couldn't track it real time with radars, satellites, and models.  West Seneca seemed to do really well in the late 80's and 90's.  

[BuffaloWeather]

15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Oh heck yeah, I'm a Buffalonian at heart (even though I was a North Tonawandan, haha).  Moved to Rochester when I was 22 to start my job at the University or Rochester. 

It was Southwest wind lake effect events that ignited my passion for weather at a very early age, probably around 7 or 8 years old.  I was so baffled by how some places could have feet of snow while my yard had almost none.  I was convinced back then that if Grand Island didnt exist I'd get more snow, Haha! I didnt really have a good idea on the size and scale of lake effect at the time and just wanted to blame something for my frequent heartbreak.  I loved visiting my grandmas house in winter because there was always this outside chance that we'd get a ton of snow, weather was more exciting when you couldn't track it real time with radars, satellites, and models.  West Seneca seemed to do really well in the late 80's and 90's.  

West seneca has been the focal point of almost every major event the last 30 years. Even the Dec. 2001 event they got over 70". You get more events the farther south and southeast you go but the big dogs have a target from Buffalo to Hamburg usually. Makes sense as you get the entire fetch of the lake. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Got a feeling an event like this is coming for Buffalo this year. How many people were in Buffalo to witness this one, still holds the record for 24 hour snowfall at kbuf. At bottom of page you can see the radar for it, unreal snowfall rates. 

Over two feet of snow fell in about eight hours across most 
of the city of Buffalo and its near northern and eastern suburbs 
during Sunday.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1995-1996&event=G

Yep I lived in south buffalo on abbott rd for this one right next to KFC. The drifts from heathcock park across the street were ridiculous and snowmobilers were the only traffic down abbott.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

West seneca has been the focal point of almost every major event the last 30 years. Even the Dec. 2001 event they got over 70". You get more events the farther south and southeast you go but the big dogs have a target from Buffalo to Hamburg usually. Makes sense as you get the entire fetch of the lake. 

That dec 2001 event is my all time fav.

18 years old and stuck in my apartment for a week with two roomates, our gfs, a playstation and plenty of beer....surprised no babies were made.

[TugHillMatt]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's pretty rare to go 3 years in a row with below average snowfall, so at least we have that going for us heading into winter. It hasn't happened since the 1980s. @TugHillMatt

I love this word of encouragement! Hopefully we get that break from the "snow drought."

4 hours ago, vortmax said:

We got nada along the S Shore last night. Really quite the precip total contrast in a pretty short distance this summer.

Indeed! I would go on to say not just this summer, but last winter too! The cutoffs and contrasts have been pretty amazing.

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

 

Incredible event.  I remember this one vividly, however it was a heartbreaker for me as a North Towner.  We were at my grandmas house in West Seneca when it began and the snowfall rates had to be 3-5"/hr.  This forced us to make a hasty departure and head home to North Tonawanda.   As usual, by the time we got home there was virtually bare ground...I was pretty used to this by that point in my life but I always hoped the bands would sneak a little further North.  Back then though, it was very hard to ever see a radar unless you got a glimpse on the weather channel so tracking it real time was almost nonexistent.  

My house was where the arrow is pointing  

Thanks for sharing your weather stories! I love reading/learning how others become interested in the weather.

Growing up in a non-lake effect belt, the March Superstorm of 1993, the winter of 93-94, and the Blizzard of 1996 in my hometown of Lancaster, PA are what ignited my passion for weather...especially snowstorms!

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

That dec 2001 event is my all time fav.

18 years old and stuck in my apartment for a week with two roomates, our gfs, a playstation and plenty of beer....surprised no babies were made.

My friends and I actually drove through the lake effect band on our way to Niagara Falls, Ontario. We were there for a couple days...and then I remember driving back, I think through Lancaster?...and thinking HOLY CRAP, I HAVE NEEEVVVER SEEN SO MUCH SNOW OR SUCH HUGE PILES IN MY LIFE!!! My inner-Jim Cantore came bouncing out.

[BuffaloWeather]

9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

My friends and I actually drove through the lake effect band on our way to Niagara Falls, Ontario. We were there for a couple days...and then I remember driving back, I think through Lancaster?...and thinking HOLY CRAP, I HAVE NEEEVVVER SEEN SO MUCH SNOW OR SUCH HUGE PILES IN MY LIFE!!! My inner-Jim Cantore came bouncing out.

Dec 2001 had some insane piles across the area. Even more off the Tug. 

[TugHillMatt]

54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Dec 2001 had some insane piles across the area. Even more off the Tug. 

It's definitely the most snow I've ever seen in my life. My year on the Southern Tug didn't produce anything nearly so exciting. The next closest I've ever witnessed was my 2 winters living in the snowbelt of Muskoka in Ontario, Canada. Now, that place was AMAZING for consistent snowpack AND winter conditions. After living there, it's no surprise the winters of the Cuse come across as disappointing. lol

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's definitely the most snow I've ever seen in my life. My year on the Southern Tug didn't produce anything nearly so exciting. The next closest I've ever witnessed was my 2 winters living in the snowbelt of Muskoka in Ontario, Canada. Now, that place was AMAZING for consistent snowpack AND winter conditions. After living there, it's no surprise the winters of the Cuse come across as disappointing. lol

I did not know you lived there. You've lived all over, how do you move so much? Someone in the military? Did you get hit with any West wind LES bands there? They must average 200"+ in that spot. 

[BuffaloWeather]

84 degrees at KBUF today.

[vortmax]

Tempest shows a DP of 73. WTF

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I did not know you lived there. You've lived all over, how do you move so much? Someone in the military? Did you get hit with any West wind LES bands there? They must average 200"+ in that spot. 

There's a tornado warning in that area right now... Lol

[wolfie09]

WF is through most of the kbuf CWA(as of 18z),  CF trekking through MI..

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Gonna be a late one tonight.  Thinking 1-2am time frame.  Front just not moving east that fast.  See a little squall pushing out ahead over Western Lake Erie.  Should be another noisy night. 

[Thinksnow18]

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Got a feeling an event like this is coming for Buffalo this year. How many people were in Buffalo to witness this one, still holds the record for 24 hour snowfall at kbuf. At bottom of page you can see the radar for it, unreal snowfall rates. 

Over two feet of snow fell in about eight hours across most 
of the city of Buffalo and its near northern and eastern suburbs 
during Sunday.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1995-1996&event=G

What’s super interesting and something we have all pointed out on this blog before is the surprise to the meteorologists and how far north the band moved, owing to the warmer lake water bending or curving the band north, it states to subtract up to 20 degrees as the cold air doesn’t just follow the wind direction but actually bends at the tip of the lake…thus does not happen, as it states, on Ontario. I wonder if it’s due to the shallow waters?

[WNash]

10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

 

Incredible event.  I remember this one vividly, however it was a heartbreaker for me as a North Towner.  We were at my grandmas house in West Seneca when it began and the snowfall rates had to be 3-5"/hr.  This forced us to make a hasty departure and head home to North Tonawanda.   As usual, by the time we got home there was virtually bare ground...I was pretty used to this by that point in my life but I always hoped the bands would sneak a little further North.  Back then though, it was very hard to ever see a radar unless you got a glimpse on the weather channel so tracking it real time was almost nonexistent.  

My house was where the arrow is pointing  

This is the kind of storm that seemingly had a roughly 10 year return interval but hasn’t been seen in in 20+ years (with the exception of the one-of-a-kind October 2006 storm). I moved here in 2012, living in the northern half of the city - places that got buried by the 1995 storm, the six-pack storm, ‘77, and at least a storm a decade going way back in the Buffalo Blizzards book. I keep thinking we are going to get that monster storm every winter. Fingers crossed it’s this one.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

What’s super interesting and something we have all pointed out on this blog before is the surprise to the meteorologists and how far north the band moved, owing to the warmer lake water bending or curving the band north, it states to subtract up to 20 degrees as the cold air doesn’t just follow the wind direction but actually bends at the tip of the lake…thus does not happen, as it states, on Ontario. I wonder if it’s due to the shallow waters?

I don't believe this event was due to the warm lake, there was a trough crossing that caused the band to move north.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Gonna be a late one tonight.  Thinking 1-2am time frame.  Front just not moving east that fast.  See a little squall pushing out ahead over Western Lake Erie.  Should be another noisy night. 

Storms were a bit of a dud last night.  Probably for the better my dog has had enough after the past 2 late overnight wake ups from the thunder.  Love a good lightning show but these overnight storms are a bit boring in terms of intercepting real severe weather.

[Thinksnow18]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't believe this event was due to the warm lake, there was a trough crossing that caused the band to move north.

I mean it actually said it in the discussion…