Buffalo Bumble Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes and headed right for us. In fact this evening’s forecast was very poorly handled. At 749 the NWS text read the storms over southern Ontario MAY clip the waters of Lake Ontario… Yeah, surprised that dropped in. Don’t know if the warm lake has anything to do with it but lake temp in mid 70’s this time of year can lead to some funky weather. Awesome spout pics!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 NWS isn't necessarily wrong lol Everything is streaming NE over top of Kbuf and looks to possibly cross over Ontario later this evening.. It does look a little bit stronger than what guidance shows at the moment..So we'll see lol Diminished SB CAPE and lapse rates will have this convection continue to weaken as it moves across Lake Ontario, clipping the southern shoreline. Thunderstorms will still be possible through the evening, especially over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 53 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Yeah, surprised that dropped in. Don’t know if the warm lake has anything to do with it but lake temp in mid 70’s this time of year can lead to some funky weather. Awesome spout pics!!! Weird setup on that line tonight. Outflow boundary blew out ahead of the main line on approach to WNY and just got hung up over the lake. Looks like it made a bit of a firing line for storms moving NE off the outflow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Would have been some neat cloud structure with those storms building over the lake if it was day time. Caught one strike otherwise a bit of a boring night chase. Watching this next line swinging through but we all know it’s gonna get torn up on approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Would have been some neat cloud structure with those storms building over the lake if it was day time. Caught one strike otherwise a bit of a boring night chase. Watching this next line swinging through but we all know it’s gonna get torn up on approach. I think the lake shadow is done for the season…Reversed now to a lake hose. Line got reenergized on approach over the warm lake. Nice deluge here with some lightning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 39 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I think the lake shadow is done for the season…Reversed now to a lake hose. Line got reenergized on approach over the warm lake. Nice deluge here with some lightning. Quite a bit of rain north of the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I think the lake shadow is done for the season…Reversed now to a lake hose. Line got reenergized on approach over the warm lake. Nice deluge here with some lightning. Time to overseed!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Pretty slow moving CF..We have 0.14" on the day so far, more moderate/heavy showers moving in from the SW..You can tell by the anomalies that the front is just clearing kbuf CWA as of 18z(euro)..We won't see the convection that areas east do but we also won't see the heat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Man… those storms in Ontario just try and one up each other every day… 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Not much difference D7 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Absolute monsoon right now..Rates over 2" per hour, nearing 3/4" on the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 CF on the door step.. Showers are slowly pushing east, 0.90" on the day, currently 65°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Line has become more potent as expected..Old lady driving up from jersey stuck in it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Latest CPC probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Euro backed off it's crazy anomalies from 0z, still warmer than average but+15 is mainly to the south..(D7-10) As it stands now.. Strictly looking at daytime lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Latest CPC probabilities Good thing it's September, not July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Latest CPC probabilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Man… those storms in Ontario just try and one up each other every day… The last picture of waterspouts I posted was from Huron, I was incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Man… those storms in Ontario just try and one up each other every day… I've had nightmares of this very scene. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Just 8 weeks before we can realistically start thinking about snow. This junky is ready! I think we are due a bold year. 3 crap years are over. Hoping we can get good teleconnections prior to April. Might mean that we have to wait for it, which would beat having another robust November/ early December followed by weakness. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Just 8 weeks before we can realistically start thinking about snow. This junky is ready! I think we are due a bold year. 3 crap years are over. Hoping we can get good teleconnections prior to April. Might mean that we have to wait for it, which would beat having another robust November/ early December followed by weakness. Yes give me 1 good early season event in Nov/early Dec then let it warm up for a month or so mid Dec to mid Jan then let winter set in for real mid Jan to end of March and then it can warm up. Nothing better then the winters where it just seems like we can’t even make it above freezing for 2-3 months with frequent clippers dropping a few inches of snow at a time building the base up nice and thick with no thaws at all. It seems those are becoming far less common these days than even 10-15 years ago. It could be selective memory but I feel like when I was growing up in the 2000s we had frequent long periods of pretty sustained cold and snow which just hasn’t seemed to appear since 13-14 winter. Would love a good old fashioned winter this year of temps 2 degrees below average and snowfall at like 125-150% of normal with minimum thaws. Would really be awesome to have after the last several years, though last winter wasn’t horrible as it had numerous good lake effect events but lacked sustained cold and had frequent pack destroying thaws between events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Latest CPC probabilities Oh, for goodness sakes! How could anybody argue that we aren't accelerating climate change?!?! Above normal...above normal...GAAAAAHHH! I was born in the wrong century. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 More of a quasi-zonal flow will dominate across the CONUS through the long term period, with a series of progressive weak troughs and ridges, of which the timing of these features will be key to what our weather will be. Starting off Sunday, a weak cold front will sag south across the region, while the better mid and upper level dynamics will move across Quebec and northern NY. With weak forcing and marginal moisture availability will have just the SChc for a couple of showers for areas east of Lake Ontario closer to the better dynamics. Otherwise would expect a lot of dry time. This boundary then becomes stationary somewhere across southern NY/northern PA for Sunday night and Monday, before moving back northeast through the area as a warm front sometime Monday night or Tuesday. Several ill-timed weak mid level impulses will traverse the region atop the stalled boundary during this time. With this in mind, will go with SChc/low-end Chc PoPs for a few showers from time to time, with the thinking there will be a good deal of dry time as well. Discrepancies amongst the global models have lessened toward the end of the period, with the 08/12Z suite now advertising fairly good agreement that the next cold front will arrive across the lower Great Lakes toward the mid week timeframe bringing a renewed chance for some better organized precipitation. Otherwise, temperatures will be near to a bit above normal through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 Erie PA this morning 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 17 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Just 8 weeks before we can realistically start thinking about snow. This junky is ready! I think we are due a bold year. 3 crap years are over. Hoping we can get good teleconnections prior to April. Might mean that we have to wait for it, which would beat having another robust November/ early December followed by weakness. Welcome back Dave! When @ayuudcomes back you know winter really started. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 16 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yes give me 1 good early season event in Nov/early Dec then let it warm up for a month or so mid Dec to mid Jan then let winter set in for real mid Jan to end of March and then it can warm up. Nothing better then the winters where it just seems like we can’t even make it above freezing for 2-3 months with frequent clippers dropping a few inches of snow at a time building the base up nice and thick with no thaws at all. It seems those are becoming far less common these days than even 10-15 years ago. It could be selective memory but I feel like when I was growing up in the 2000s we had frequent long periods of pretty sustained cold and snow which just hasn’t seemed to appear since 13-14 winter. Would love a good old fashioned winter this year of temps 2 degrees below average and snowfall at like 125-150% of normal with minimum thaws. Would really be awesome to have after the last several years, though last winter wasn’t horrible as it had numerous good lake effect events but lacked sustained cold and had frequent pack destroying thaws between events. 2014-2015 was my favorite winter. Just endless LES events and not too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 There is some good news about the climate this summer. In regards to Arctic Ice coverage: "We may have reached the area minimum on 9/1....we're currently about 75k above the 9/1 value of 3.19 million sq km. Still a bit too precarious to call it, but if we had a 9/1 area min, that would be the earliest min since 1992." Also this is happening this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 The best part about a 17 game season and a late start to NFL season are quite a few chances at snow games in Orchard Park this year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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