PowellVolz Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Sell natural gas! Not investment advice. I'm just tired of the ECWMF weeklies choking. And don't sell natty in the face of this upward momentum. At least not today. However the weeklies might have MJO support. Both the EC and GFS weeklies have the cooler look. Legacy CFS goes warm. Let's see which works out. Check back in two weeks. Please do not share the image outside of our Region.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Anyway John is right about November correlation to winter. October is worthless. November tends to correlate with the balance of winter, Dec-Feb. Not every year, but over the years November and bal-winter have a decent correlation coefficient. March always does what March wants to do, haha! Deterministic models, Ensembles, and Weeklies all seem to want to start November cold. That's only the first week or two, and not the whole month. However it's baby steps if one is eyeing the November and balance of winter correlation. GFS wants to get mild by mid-Nov. GOA low yuck. Euro is still cool-ish. Canadian wants to reload cold, with another ridge poking into western Canada. MJO could favor the Euro in between solution. Champions Classic is in November. This year with have two versions. College basketball, and the three weather models. Check back in two weeks! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 29, 2021 Author Share Posted October 29, 2021 Maybe first high elevation snows next weekend? Euro looked robust for the northern Plateau and Smokies. Interesting track with marginally cold air in place or sliding in as precip arrives/departs(we know the drill). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 European and Canadian showing the first flakes early next week again tonight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Interesting chatter now about a Yukon Ridge. They are actually quite rare in late October and early November. Alaska or West Coast are more common. Over history Yukon ridges are rare this exact time of year, but have been particularly stubborn once set up. Models break it down around Day 15 but then some hint at a rebuild 16-20 day. That 5-day composite is still warm, but details lurk. Do we tee up a cold November? Then do we leverage that correlation into the rest of winter? I'm not sold. La Nina is notoriously variable. On the bullish side though, perhaps the warm interlude is brief in a cold Novie. Image was posted a few days ago, so it's not the current 11-15 day. However the argument remains valid. Plus that falling -QBO. Please do not share the image outside our Region. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 I’m not very familiar with Yukon ridges. Do present they a warm risk or a cold risk this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Yukon ridge would be cold down here November through Feb. In addition another stronger than forecast trip through MJO phases 5-6 would be colder than the 16-20 day models. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 A little food for thought. With most forecasters going for a mild Winter in the Eastern US based mainly on La nina and a neg. PDO , I thought i'd bring up a historical event that occurred during a similar setup. The "Great Appalachian Storm" of November 1950. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/appalachianstorm1950 There's many articles on it. Just google. Very interesting ! Of course, nothing of that magnitude in this climate era is bordering impossible, when you consider the time of year and the extreme cold associated. However, it does show the possibility of a cold/snowy pattern in the Eastern States during a La nina/-Pdo Winter. The rest of that Winter averaged basically normal with the Nashville area receiving a major Ice/Snowstorm in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Well that was an epic Euro run for Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure works south of the area and up into the Carolinas with heavy wet slop behind it, nails the Plateau/SE Ky. The Euro phases the southern stream and northern stream and really wraps in some cold air. No phase on the GFS. Early season model battle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 I swear John, I was just thinking yesterday, that we were in that window where it seems like this version of the Euro likes to wrap up a piece of energy dump some snow on someone, lol. Here is the evolution of the storm to go alongside John's map above: Here is the EPS (I'll just put Jacksboro up as the high end of the EPS til we get closer): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Wonder if the mountains above 6k are getting snow today. Clingmans Dome is 35° in a NW flow aloft. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 56 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wonder if the mountains above 6k are getting snow today. Clingmans Dome is 35° in a NW flow aloft. . We are seeing snow on this side above 5k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 We are seeing snow on this side above 5k.I apologize but your location?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: I apologize but your location? . Oh no problem. Im in WNC in Haywood county. They saw snow up in Yancy county and on Mt. Mitchell this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Oh no problem. Im in WNC in Haywood county. They saw snow up in Yancy county and on Mt. Mitchell this morning. Oh that’s awesome. I saw a video from Mitchell and it was snowing pretty good. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Oh no problem. Im in WNC in Haywood county. They saw snow up in Yancy county and on Mt. Mitchell this morning. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Wonder if the mountains above 6k are getting snow today. Clingmans Dome is 35° in a NW flow aloft. . It was snowing there yesterday evening according to WVLT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The Euro backed off that bonkers run from last night but still has accumulating snow on the Plateau and mountains. More in the 2-3 inch range rather than 3-6 inches. The Canadian also shows an inch or two along the same areas. MRX has introduced a chance of rain or snow showers here for next Friday. Says rain with a low of 32 Thursday night, rain and show showers Friday with a high of 43. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Coolish pattern persists first 12-15 days of November. It's a start. But we gotta get rid of this overcast no precip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Need the MJO to stay out of the Maritime,don't look like it will happen.Euro has been to strong with it last week into Africa,probably constructive interference from a KW.I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro comes out of the COD the next few days and shows it stronger into the IO,seems to be what the CFS has been showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Need the MJO to stay out of the Maritime,don't look like it will happen.Euro has been to strong with it last week into Africa,probably constructive interference from a KW.I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro comes out of the COD the next few days and shows it stronger into the IO,seems to be what the CFS has been showing Jaxjagman, do we want the mjo to not stay in MC long at all for a cold pattern to develop later on? I forgot how the mjo works for the fall as compared to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 13 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Jaxjagman, do we want the mjo to not stay in MC long at all for a cold pattern to develop later on? I forgot how the mjo works for the fall as compared to winter Probably have to wait and see,CFS could be wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 What do y'all think. Is the end of week system coming NW? It is only November after all, but gotta get warmed up chasing missed phases and NW trends somehow: This may jinx it, but I kinda suspect someone gets NAM'd between 12z tomorrow and 18z Wed. Even if it is only places above 3000' lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 European weeklies shift cooler second half of November. Normal instead of warmer, more in line with CFS. MJO would support. Also if ridging gets stuck in the Yukon, vs AK or West Coast. In the South we just hang onto Day 15. I've no thoughts on Friday. Actually I do but in kindergarten they said if you don't have anything nice to say... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 What's happening/not happening on Friday?Potential mountain snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Here's the Ensembles for Day 15. Warmer risks would be -GLAMM otherwise cold could happen. Welcome to the Cynical South @Blue Moon but I thought you're from here. As you know if it could snow in the South, still forecast rain. In Oswego NY, it's just the opposite. If it could snow in Upstate NY it will. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Man, it feels like winter out there. And the ensembles do not look warm after d10. Monster ridge going up right along the West Coast. Give it a few more runs, and I might be read to say that winter is about to begin north of I40 during the second half of November. Now, that doesn't mean snow necessarily, but it does mean we are about to flip cold. @Blue Moon, were you in this area for a time? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 To bad its not winter,East Asia is fixing to crank up for a bit 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 We might be able to get that to work courtesy of the ABNA however the wavelength is a little squirrelly like you note. This is the European weekly composite of weeks 5-6. Historically those weeks offer zero forecast value but it's fun to look! It's not far from the coldest group of historical years. Again, just garbage. Should I move this to banter? There is the China tie-in so will put it here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: We might be able to get that to work courtesy of the ABNA however the wavelength is a little squirrelly like you note. This is the European weekly composite of weeks 5-6. Historically those weeks offer zero forecast value but it's fun to look! It's not far from the coldest group of historical years. Again, just garbage. Should I move this to banter? There is the China tie-in so will put it here. Hi Jeff. My concern is if we dont get cold with shorter wavelengths, it may be tougher to get cold with longer wavelengths in winter. Is that a possibility or what do you think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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