Heisy Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Eps has a minor signal for the 6th. Looks like a clipper on the heels of the December 4 front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Story of the next 7 days. That PJ is screaming: Then this signal has been showing for longer range into Dec. Fugly: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 So close! Just flip all those colors on the bottom map and we in bidness. 33F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: So close! Just flip on those colors on the bottom map and we in bidness. 33F Yes sir. Those blues and oranges are pretty much all in the opposite spots we would want to see them. GEPS isn't too far off. Maybe we can sneak something out around Dec 6-8 as the pattern flipper to that crud rolls thru, but more than likely and based on Nina climo would favor N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Looks like a low yielding clipper to me. I like those looks early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 0Z CMC is intriguing for the end of its run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 GFS with something for the 6th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 39 minutes ago, Newman said: GFS with something for the 6th Imo thats the one to keep an eye on for something. Nina climo says far N and W event or a white to wet changeover type event. It is after this the pattern looks to go to crud. GGEM op doesn't agree with its own ensembles on the system it shows a few days later. And those of us around a while know that in a fast PJ nina regime that LR storm tracking usually doesn't work. Overall longwave pattern and tellies can be looked at farther out but the smaller synoptic events tend to jump up and surprise under 100 hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Finally saw my first flurries around 12:30 pm today. Lots of CAA going on complete with cumulostratus clouds. Had occasional breaks of sun earlier this morning but the cloud deck is a bit thicker now this afternoon. Temp is a breezy 41 with dp down to 27 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 21F This is the biggest bust on a low temperature I have seen in a long time it was projected to be 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 An occasional flake drifting by. On the board for winter 2021-22 36F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Sn- - - - . 37F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Well with Met winter set to begin tomorrow I'm guessing 50-75% of normal snowfall for 95 and 75%-100% of normal snowfall for the NW burbs. I just don't like the way things look heading into december. Looks like a typical nina with a screaming PJ and +NAO/AO. I think most events will be nickel and dime or front end 1-3" over to rain. March is such a crap shoot though so who knows maybe we go gangbusters again like 2018. But DJF is looking rough right now imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Occasional flurries and another trace 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 A flurry....37F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Got some flurries yesterday and there are some going on here now. Had a low this morning of 26 and am currently at 40 with dp 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Had some light flurries this morning here as well. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 I see ABE reported their 18th coldest November in 90 years of records. Here in Chesco only good for 64th coldest in 128 years of records....but of note this is now the 10th below normal November in the last 15 years!! November is looking like our peak of cold season departure months during our current phase of cyclical climate change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Cold front passes thru on the 6th. Trailing wave slide thru around the 8th. GFS and CMC have a Tennessee Valley wave with CAA via HP N of ME. Euro is less enthused and cuts the wave. In any event, something to watch and quite possibly our last real threat for a while as this is the catalyst note previously for our pattern shift to crud Nina (-PNA/+NAO/++AO). With that said, if I eat crow and the pattern doesn't shift where it would in a typical Nina and the cold keeps coming and the poor tellies are transient, we might actually be in for a better run in Dec than what guidance is currently showing. However, if things change without batting an eye into the old familiar Nina look right on schedule, then we are going to need quite a bit of patience this winter. During Ninas we tend to nickel and dime our way to below avg snowfall with several coating-3" types and some thump to mix garbage. Right now, I dont see why this Nina would be any different, especially given the PDO phase that is locked in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cold front passes thru on the 6th. Trailing wave slide thru around the 8th. GFS and CMC have a Tennessee Valley wave with CAA via HP N of ME. Euro is less enthused and cuts the wave. In any event, something to watch and quite possibly our last real threat for a while as this is the catalyst note previously for our pattern shift to crud Nina (-PNA/+NAO/++AO). With that said, if I eat crow and the pattern doesn't shift where it would in a typical Nina and the cold keeps coming and the poor tellies are transient, we might actually be in for a better run in Dec than what guidance is currently showing. However, if things change without batting an eye into the old familiar Nina look right on schedule, then we are going to need quite a bit of patience this winter. During Ninas we tend to nickel and dime our way to below avg snowfall with several coating-3" types and some thump to mix garbage. Right now, I dont see why this Nina would be any different, especially given the PDO phase that is locked in. Too early to cancel winter but the cold and snow forecasts for December don't look good right now but that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 November stats below - on top of being the 64th coldest (+10th below normal in last 15 years) it was the 16th driest on record since 1894. Warmest day 69.2 (18th) - coldest 26.9 (24th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Too early to cancel winter but the cold and snow forecasts for December don't look good right now but that can change. You're not thinking about cancelling winter are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 The mild break in December keeps getting pushed back in the guidance. November did the same. Not saying it doesn't get here but it may be short lived it wants to be cold for whatever the reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 28 minutes ago, RedSky said: The mild break in December keeps getting pushed back in the guidance. November did the same. Not saying it doesn't get here but it may be short lived it wants to be cold for whatever the reasons. GFS looks pretty mild overall. at least 3 days in the upper 50's low 60's from the 06th - 12th. Lots of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 CPC December outlook is average for most of this region and they have a torch bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 LR guidance definitely firm Nina look. Kissing 70 degrees in SEPA on the GFS this run. Shutout stretch incoming, hopefully it can remain transient. On a somewhat related note, TWC showed this the latest in any year they didn't have a named winter storm by now. Reflection of where we are at so far. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/1/2021 at 8:13 AM, MJO812 said: Too early to cancel winter but the cold and snow forecasts for December don't look good right now but that can change. Ji? 54F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 11/30/2021 at 8:18 PM, ChescoWx said: I see ABE reported their 18th coldest November in 90 years of records. Here in Chesco only good for 64th coldest in 128 years of records....but of note this is now the 10th below normal November in the last 15 years!! November is looking like our peak of cold season departure months during our current phase of cyclical climate change where did you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Cecily Tynan posted a stat last night on the news for the PHL Airport that winters have warmed almost 5 degrees in the last 50 years (see below) So of course I had to go back and do the analysis for 120 years for Chester County. To remove any bias of any one reporting station I used an average of all 8 available NWS COOP sites (with no less than 4 and as many as 8 sites) to see if on average our winters (DJF) have really warmed by almost 5 degrees? The answer of course away from PHL is a clear NO for the Chester County philly burbs! In fact from 90 years ago the most recent decade winters were actually 0.5 degrees colder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Went up to 57 here today after a low of 42. Got a couple hundredths of an inch of rain late last night this morning totaling 006" for the 2 days. I would say that the "traditional" met winter of DJF seems to have shifted to JFM, where we are getting "longer falls" but then "longer springs" on the back end, with AMJ being more "spring-like" due to more and more below-normal temps seemingly happening into June. That leaves a JAS as "summer" and OND as "fall". I guess technically the first day of winter (solstice) IS near the end of December so... Currently 56 with changeable skies (clearing to the west), with dp 46. Pretty nice out (I put the last of my outdoor decorations up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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