ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 9:38 PM, KamuSnow said: I should probably let it go, but what was your actual high? 69? Hi Kamu - 69.2 to be precise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Something really interesting I wanted to share... the October 2021 averaged PDO index value came out to -2.55. In the entire PDO historical data set dating back to 1900, that's the most negative it's ever been since 1961. In fact, in the entire data set which takes monthly values, there's only ever been around 9 months across the past 121 years that have had a lower negative PDO value. That means 9 out of 1,450 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Mixed signals for the winter is how I see it. It's been dry since the hurricane flood in early September that's not good. But it's a cold November and that pattern is really locked in going forward into December with cold delivery from Canada. Analogs for warm October - cold November have led to good winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 12z euro came significantly close to a snowstorm next Monday. The cold is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 There was a bee in my car today. 47F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z euro came significantly close to a snowstorm next Monday. The cold is there. Looks like a clipper redevelopment deal, those are notoriously hard to nail down this far out. CMC has something similar just further north as the clipper doesn't dig as far south as the Euro. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Even if we can score a 1-3" type deal with just the clipper, that'd be a nice score before December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 12z euro came significantly close to a snowstorm next Monday. The cold is there. Yea that was a close call, could be the euro over developing systems, but we'll see...any support for this on the individuals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Looks increasingly likely we will finish with below normal temps for November - this would be the 7th below normal November in the last 10 years here in NW Chesco. However, maybe a nice warm up to start December?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Ended up with a high of 52 yesterday and low of 47 - but my 51 high today came just after midnight as one front was about to come through, so the low is the current. The rain was a bit stingy (a line from last night basically evaporated as it approached) but I did get 0.10" this morning. Once the 2nd front came through, it sucked the moisture out of the atmosphere quite quickly. Did have stratocumulus obscuring the sun much of the day, although there were some breaks of sun. Currently 40 with a dp of 25. MJO Phase (90 days) FWIW - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 hours ago, RedSky said: Mixed signals for the winter is how I see it. It's been dry since the hurricane flood in early September that's not good. But it's a cold November and that pattern is really locked in going forward into December with cold delivery from Canada. Analogs for warm October - cold November have led to good winters. If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that. I don't know, that pattern looks like it could very easily flip into a +NAO/-EPO regime by mid month which wouldn't be as bad. No use extrapolating that far out when we're seeing such big changes every 24 hours though in the long range. If we do get skunked in Dec though, historically speaking, that's usually a death knell for winter around here in a nina. Almost every single nina that featured a skunked december is a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Beautiful day across the area albeit a bit chillier than normal. Of note this morning's low of 28.6 here in East Nantmeal was our coldest since the 26.3 back on April 3rd. The 30.2 in Sea Isle City NJ was the coldest and only the 2nd below freezing low this season. The 1st was last Saturday at exactly 32 degrees. Happy Holiday week to all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 It's friggin cold outside for November I find it interesting how this cold is far over performing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 38F at noon. No bees in sight but the squirrels must have found a bag of coke...racing around like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 12z euro for sunday, first clown maps of the season, gotta love it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z euro for sunday, first clown maps of the season, gotta love it! Only 5 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 I want to say Lucy is holding the first football but it has no support therefore not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: I want to say Lucy is holding the first football but it has no support therefore not yet Cmc and ukie for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc and ukie for SNE Were not merged yet dude so.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Were not merged yet dude so.. I post in every subforum. I'm like shit all over. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Flurries and 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 47 minutes ago, RedSky said: Were not merged yet dude so.. Eps enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps enthused Everything euro has become too jumpy the last few years. Besides even if it was on other guidance it's a clipper and you never know where they will hit until the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Flurries and 39F Yeah, some crumbs rolling down from the NW. Montgomery county issued a code blue from 8pm tonight to 8am tomorrow. I thought the criteria was way lower temps/wind chill than what is predicted. Hell, I sleep in a tent overnight just for shits and giggles in temps/conditions lower.. 39F....face smashed against the window looking for the elusive first snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yeah, some crumbs rolling down from the NW. Montgomery county issued a code blue from 8pm tonight to 8am tomorrow. I thought the criteria was way lower temps/wind chill than what is predicted. Hell, I sleep in a tent overnight just for shits and giggles in temps/conditions lower.. 39F....face smashed against the window looking for the elusive first snowflake. Yeah, I guess tonight qualifies for code blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Guess the 0z euro is uggge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Guess the 0z euro is uggge Coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Where have I seen this before? #delcosnowholestrikesagain Are we just living the new normal for the foreseeable future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 ECM crashed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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