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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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GEFS/EPS do exactly what I spoke about a few days ago wrt Scandinavian ridging propagating into the Greenland region and developing a -NAO. 1st, we need this to not just be some day 8+ fantasy. 2nd, we need to see this become a repetitive background state this winter at least showing up periodically. With the pig TPV still strengthening and anchored over the N Pole and a raging PJ ripping underneath we are going to need NAO blocking this winter to avoid a dud imho. Not saying we can't cash in without it, but as I said the NAO is going to be the biggest key to things this winter. Without it we are going to need alot of PNA/AO help. Good look on guidance post Thanksgiving....thats about all we can hope for at this point.

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Made it up to 48 yesterday after a low of 39, and although I had the same low this morning of 39, I'm already up to 60 at post time, so the warming trend is in place.  Currently a new deck of clouds have moved in so it is mostly cloudy and 60, with dp up to 49, after having dps in the low-mid 30s the past bunch of days.  Had to pull out the humidifiers today since the humidity in here had dropped down to the upper 20%s (not good).  Finally got it back up to a reasonable 40%.

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After a low of 43 this morning, it's currently up to 69 with mostly blue sky.  Saw the setting full moon through the window this morning knowing I won't be able to see it tonight with the incoming tempest.

ETA - when I was out running errands earlier this morning, I took note that 1/2 of the trees are fully in leaf, although most of those have their fall colors.  I know around here, the city would do their 2nd leaf removals (from the streets) around the first week of December and I definitely see why.  It's possible that however gusty this incoming cold front gets, it might knock another batch of leaves down.

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41 minutes ago, RedSky said:

One yellow jacket and my pet red dragonfly landed next-door to me on the concrete, rather incredible.

Confident the yellow jackets will be gone by Christmas with that 30 day outlook, but feel bad for the dragonfly 

 

 

Just saw a little garter snake slither across the walkway. Guess he came out to sun himself. 71F

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Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now

I should probably let it go, but what was your actual high? 69?

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Friday's low was 35 and yesterday's was a chillier 31, with the Friday high at 47 and yesterday's high 46. 

This morning was a bit surprising with some early fog and/or stratus (although with the temp/dp what they were and no wind between about 3 am - 5 am, I can see why)... but that has since lifted with a few puffs of wind. It's currently clear and and 37 with dp 36.

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45 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

These are essentially a blend of the thoughts I posted a week or 2 ago. Below avg snowfall, slow start, TPV anchored over the N Pole, and variability. We are going to get bored with mid/upper 40s to low 50s for stretches then get a few of those days where we struggle to get out of the teens. I do think our cold spells come via blocking not necessarily related to any SSWE. A bigger storm (deeper cyclone) threat is more likely this winter based on several factors, one of which is Nina potentially staying weak/mod but quickly moving to neutral or even weak Nino by late winter. Slow start, moderate middle, higher variability late. 

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