Newman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 GEFS/EPS do exactly what I spoke about a few days ago wrt Scandinavian ridging propagating into the Greenland region and developing a -NAO. 1st, we need this to not just be some day 8+ fantasy. 2nd, we need to see this become a repetitive background state this winter at least showing up periodically. With the pig TPV still strengthening and anchored over the N Pole and a raging PJ ripping underneath we are going to need NAO blocking this winter to avoid a dud imho. Not saying we can't cash in without it, but as I said the NAO is going to be the biggest key to things this winter. Without it we are going to need alot of PNA/AO help. Good look on guidance post Thanksgiving....thats about all we can hope for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Current temp down to 30 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Current temp is 28 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Made it up to 48 yesterday after a low of 39, and although I had the same low this morning of 39, I'm already up to 60 at post time, so the warming trend is in place. Currently a new deck of clouds have moved in so it is mostly cloudy and 60, with dp up to 49, after having dps in the low-mid 30s the past bunch of days. Had to pull out the humidifiers today since the humidity in here had dropped down to the upper 20%s (not good). Finally got it back up to a reasonable 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Sun never made an appearance today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Sun never made an appearance today Tomorrow will make up for it…..at least temp wise.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Weather World 30 day outlook is 2/3 days below normal and they said their coldest in two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 FWIW Channel 6 had thier winter outook last night. Average year for snow. Some mild stretches followed by a cold shot or two. Isn't it pretty much the same each year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 66F per my wx station, 70F per Ambient. Either way, widows are open and am getting a nice breeze through the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 beautiful day here, currently 72F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 One yellow jacket and my pet red dragonfly landed next-door to me on the concrete, rather incredible. Confident the yellow jackets will be gone by Christmas with that 30 day outlook, but feel bad for the dragonfly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 After a low of 43 this morning, it's currently up to 69 with mostly blue sky. Saw the setting full moon through the window this morning knowing I won't be able to see it tonight with the incoming tempest. ETA - when I was out running errands earlier this morning, I took note that 1/2 of the trees are fully in leaf, although most of those have their fall colors. I know around here, the city would do their 2nd leaf removals (from the streets) around the first week of December and I definitely see why. It's possible that however gusty this incoming cold front gets, it might knock another batch of leaves down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 Current temp is 73 here. Warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 41 minutes ago, RedSky said: One yellow jacket and my pet red dragonfly landed next-door to me on the concrete, rather incredible. Confident the yellow jackets will be gone by Christmas with that 30 day outlook, but feel bad for the dragonfly Just saw a little garter snake slither across the walkway. Guess he came out to sun himself. 71F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 My pet dragonfly I named him Drachen. Winter's coming however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: My pet dragonfly I named him Drachen. Winter's coming however. He's cool, lol. Wish him well and Godspeed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now I should probably let it go, but what was your actual high? 69? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/16/2021 at 12:49 PM, RedSky said: In other news that rare 3am lunar eclipse on the morning of the 19th looks to be obscured by the frontal passage, c'est la vie It could be visible after all. I might be asleep though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: It could be visible after all. I might be asleep though. A lucky break odds look better than 50/50 it will be visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Hot damn! That front pushed the clouds and rain away and left a perfectly star-filled and moon-lit sky with the eclipse perfectly visible this morning! Yes the current temp is 40 (with dp a low 26) but was out there checking it out (between ~4:45 am - 5:15 am). ETA @6:42 am - from Mt. Holly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Viewing was perfect and the location among the major constellations made it the best lunar eclipse I have seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 One background state I've noticed for several weeks is the beat down/lack of any SER. One would think thats a better sign than a full lat pig SE ridge that we are fighting early in the season. Lets see when the Midwest starts accumulating snow. Thats a good indicator for us as the pattern steps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Overnight low of 27 here. Current temp 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Friday's low was 35 and yesterday's was a chillier 31, with the Friday high at 47 and yesterday's high 46. This morning was a bit surprising with some early fog and/or stratus (although with the temp/dp what they were and no wind between about 3 am - 5 am, I can see why)... but that has since lifted with a few puffs of wind. It's currently clear and and 37 with dp 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Three days ago I was certain the weekend cold doomed the remaining insect population. Nope. One yellow jacket and....and my dragonfly returned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Three days ago I was certain the weekend cold doomed the remaining insect population. Nope. One yellow jacket and....and my dragonfly returned Stink bugs and cucumber beetles/weevils still all over my jawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Kathy Orr/FOX29 winter outlook... https://www.fox29.com/video/1004628 Cecily/6abc winter outlook https://6abc.com/winter-weather-forecast-2021-cecily-tynan-adam-joseph-snow-philly/11248186/ 43F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 45 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Kathy Orr/FOX29 winter outlook... https://www.fox29.com/video/1004628 Cecily/6abc winter outlook https://6abc.com/winter-weather-forecast-2021-cecily-tynan-adam-joseph-snow-philly/11248186/ 43F These are essentially a blend of the thoughts I posted a week or 2 ago. Below avg snowfall, slow start, TPV anchored over the N Pole, and variability. We are going to get bored with mid/upper 40s to low 50s for stretches then get a few of those days where we struggle to get out of the teens. I do think our cold spells come via blocking not necessarily related to any SSWE. A bigger storm (deeper cyclone) threat is more likely this winter based on several factors, one of which is Nina potentially staying weak/mod but quickly moving to neutral or even weak Nino by late winter. Slow start, moderate middle, higher variability late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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