RedSky Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't. I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did? Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already. I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: This could be interesting. Just had some pretty strong winds for a couple of minutes, with a leaf squall. All I know is that as waves started moving over me, I have been virga'd. Not a drop out of any of it although it has been breezy. So far my low has been 41 this morning and it's currently churning in the sky and 57 with dp 48. Looks like most of the action is north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Today has been much more windy than yesterday w/the line of "yellows" approaching W-->E and temps dropping... 49F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Gust front is coming through here at the moment and am getting a bit of a leaf-zard. Temp starting to drop quickly and down to 53 with dp 46. Still nothing in the bucket yet but there's a narrow line headed this way that might give me something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Down to 45F with wind whipped rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Finally getting a little rain and so far have 0.02" in the bucket. Temp has plummeted to 46 with dp 44. Yellow band hasn't come through yet but getting real close now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39. So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit. I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co. Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, yak said: First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39. So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit. I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co. Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter… I figured someone from the W or N saw some flakes. Although super wet, it's still flakes. None here but still windy w/some lighter rains... 42F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Wow. Looks like the yellow band just dissolved away as it approached NW Philly. Maybe it broke up over the hills or something. Temp is now down to 43 with dp 40 and have 0.06" from it so far. Winds are still gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Wow. Looks like the yellow band just dissolved away as it approached NW Philly. Maybe it broke up over the hills or something. Temp is now down to 43 with dp 40 and have 0.06" from it so far. Winds are still gusty. Weakened before it got here as well, still rained for a while. Sun's been out off and on for the last 15 minutes. Gonna blow some wet leaves, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Skies really brightened up and wouldn't be surprised if the sun pop out within the the hour w/the back edge of the precip approaching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Sun's out in full force. Still breezy and Fall-like brisk... 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Back edge has blasted through and sun is out with clearing and blue sky overhead and to the west. Even with a couple minutes of the yellow over me at the end (image of closest approach below), I still got hardly anything. Currently 0.07". Temp down to 42 and dp 39. Mt. Holly just lofted a Wind Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 45 minutes ago, yak said: First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39. So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit. I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co. Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter… Cat paw! And now it’s a gorgeous afternoon, temp down to 41F. Thought I heard some IP hitting the car but didn’t see anything “bounce”. I think it was just the wind making the rain drops hit extra hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 That cold front meant some business and I bottomed out at 32 for a few hours after 3 am and am now up to 37, with frost, a dp of 31, and variable skies with lots of whispy cirrus obscuring the sun most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Might see our 1st flakes of the season tonight and again before dawn tomorrow - especially in the higher spots in Western Chester County.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 ^ radar had snow imby but I didn't look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Tonight A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Currently not frozen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 55 minutes ago, RedSky said: Tonight A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Currently not frozen Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night... 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night... 39F Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow. Anyone under 75 who thinks this should start searching for a senior living community w/mental care...or close family members should tell them "it's about that time". 37F North Wales and 35F Quakertown at 12:40am. Any precip is 50-100 miles off shore and bone dry to the W.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 1:13 PM, RedSky said: I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. NAO and AO both look to be trending negative as we head towards the later part of the month. May see some threats begin to materialize then. I think it was @Wentzadelphia who said Dec.5 as the first real threat in these parts and if things keep trending the way they have, that may not be a bad idea. GFS is already throwing out some fantasy material in the day 8/9 time frame even though the CMC and Euro want nothing to do with it. Things are looking pretty good though to begin Met winter though. Definitely could be a lot worse to begin the season. Cold air doesn't seem to be a problem like the beginning of last year though. Seems to be a ton around and lurking nearby towards the end of the month into Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 We did see our 1st snow flakes of the year overnight and this morning here in NW Chesco. Now while November is certainly not a snowy month - we average only 1.2" of snow. We have had some significant (+6") storms during the month. Of note just 3 years ago on November 15 into the 16th we picked up 7.3" of snow - our top 5 snowstorms in November were: November 15, 1906 (9.5") November 6, 1953 (8.6") November 15-16, 2018 (7.3") November 26, 1938 (7.0") November 4, 1910 (6.6") 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 I did make it up to 48 today vs yesterday's high of 46. Lots of CAA and wind going on today and with a low of 36 this morning, and times of sun and clouds, am currently mostly cloudy with breaks in the cloud deck here and there, and 46, with dp 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 There is a yellow jacket outside the door what in the world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: There is a yellow jacket outside the door what in the world They must know that you are our resident entomologist, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: They must know that you are our resident entomologist, haha. It is moving slow I would say it needs a heavier jacket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 In other news that rare 3am lunar eclipse on the morning of the 19th looks to be obscured by the frontal passage, c'est la vie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 NAO/AO/PNA all trending where we want them to be late month Still early enough in the season though where cold air is likely to be an issue in any event especially in the coastal plain. Regardless, should begin to see some threats appear late month into early December. Can't ask for much more heading into met winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now