Hurricane Agnes Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Low this morning was 43 and it's currently sunny and 60 with dp 44. Just seeing this new WPC product change for flood potential - I suppose it makes it easier to deal with although I always interpreted a Flash Flood Watch as a sudden, short duration event vs a Flood Watch as something that could go on for some time (although they apparently still plan to use the FF Watch for certain circumstances). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 65 after a low of 36 shooting for the big 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Looks like I'll top out at 67F today. Don't mind the warm days this time of year, save some on the heating bill. Got months of 33 and rain ahead to burn through my heating oil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 High of 68F * No yellow jackets today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 My high surprisingly hit 70 today after my full expectation that it would under perform here (I usually run ~3 below KPHL). I guess the full sun helped but then there was still a light "cool" breeze too so... Currently clear and 53 with dp now up to 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Beautiful day across the area - our normal high today is 55.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow). Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February Last February was cold with 30-40" snow and New England like snow depth so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. What's the last +12"+ December event in Philly? I feel a solid 4-8, 6-10 classic Dec 5 event this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Had a low of 48 this morning but didn't hit 70 today - "only" 65 but it was still a pleasant fall day. Currently 50 with dp 44. CPC was calling for an above average temp and equal chances precip winter due to La Nina - I think it will depend on how strong (or weak) the La Nina becomes. The chances for snow to rain are higher - although last year's La Nina resulted in an above-normal amount of frozen precipitation in the CWA, but some of us had a couple events that were absolute sleetfests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 You guys are slipping. Happy hour GFS hits are back....and only 10 days away 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 18 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You guys are slipping. Happy hour GFS hits are back....and only 10 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 The wind/rain overnight/tomorrow should knock a good bit of leaves from the trees just in time for weekend cleanup. Maybe some 40+ MPH gust... 60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Trash night, so no doubt winds will overperform. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Trash night, so no doubt winds will overperform. I'm a Sunday night put out trash guy so I'm good. I usually get screwed. Another good thing about snow, you can wedge the trashcan in the snow piles on side of the road....more stable. 57F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 So far this morning, all kinds of dry slots have opened up and I only started getting some rain about 5 am and then it sortof disappeared and then briefly returned and sortof went away. Currently have 0.26", with heavier bands to the west and east. I just lifted and replanted a peony yesterday hoping to get it rained in so we'll see. Since fronts are moving through (warm first and cold soon), my high so far just before the rain, was 63, with a low of 56 coming just after midnight. Currently overcast, misty and 62, with dp the same. SPC SWDY1 did put the eastern part of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 63F/DP 60F Trash cans standing their ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Kinda lame. Some showers then a gusty wind/downpour for 10 minutes. Now just some showers w/the backside approaching by 11-12pm... 58F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Yeah, this front has as much bite to it as a Jonathan Gannon coached defense. Still, picked up .40" so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Total rain 0.70" in bucket and 0.56" - Tempest and 0.52" on Vantage Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Looks like the back edge is past me now so I ended up with 0.39" from that today. There's a clipper that might blow through here over the weekend so will see what that does. Currently overcast, misty, and 59 with dp the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Got 0.40" here. Leaves everywhere, lol. Currently pretty sunny and 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Sun out and temp creeping up. Now at 62 here with dp 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals.. https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 59 minutes ago, RedSky said: DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals.. https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp He's getting like JB w/hype forecast for cash. You can't predict winter forecast. If you get it right it's luck and nothing more. Glenn said it correct, too many variables. I'm glad he quit doing it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/10/2021 at 2:46 PM, The Iceman said: Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. There will be more cold than usual to tap this year. The TPV shows no signs of being bullied around like the past few. However, there is still a neutral AO that has shown some negative tendencies in cooler months. NAO has been in a background negative state since mid Sept and should show some decent HL blocking at times this winter. With enso being in a weak/mod Nina state, and the TPV anchored, polar jet will be fast/progressive and very active. With lower heights forced under HL ridging at times, displacement of the PV into the NE down thru our region will occur. Won't argue we will have AN temps at times, but we should see some episodes of deep surface cad/non-snow frozen types. With that said, if NAO blocking can continue to show negative tendencies this year and force the powerful and active Polar jet to amplify and slide disturbances under us and around the bend, we could see an increased chance for deeper systems compared to average. I do like how we have seen the NAO and had it around most of last winter. Has certainly had an anomalous neg tendency last 12 months. Lets hope it doesn't flip positive, at least not for prolonged periods. Not sure we are going to be celebrating if we don't see the PJ visit the region via NAO ridging. All or nothing pattern this winter. Have suspicion we are going to struggle thru a fast flow for periods and pulling our hair out with stretches of mid/upper 40s to low 50s during parts of the winter with generally tame weather. Then missing out on late developing Miller b's as they crush New England and Nova Scotia. Generally expecting slightly BN snowfall here with an increased chance for a bigger storm. Whoever cashes in if/when blocking appears will do very well, higher chances for a KU event. Will also be interested to see how quickly enso goes into a nino state. Some guidance takes Nina to mod/strong before quickly going neutral and eventually weak Nino. How strong Nina gets when it peaks before crashing with play a huge key in how the season unfolds. I could see this season going quickly AN snow if the -NAO is anywhere near as prevalent was last winter. Im banking on it not being like last winter but appearing every so often as ridging propagates poleward from Scandinavia. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 hours ago, RedSky said: DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals.. https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't. I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did? Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 This could be interesting. Just had some pretty strong winds for a couple of minutes, with a leaf squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now