Hurricane Agnes Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 My low ended up being 61 this morning and the rain that was supposed to evaporate before getting here, is here (although it hasn't tipped the bucket yet). Currently 70 with light rain and dp 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Quite the bust of a Sunday, cloudy dreary dank and wet holding near 70F not the day in the forecast all week. But 30% chance of shower was added yesterday the kiss of death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 My high for today appears to have been 74 and currently have 0.04" in the bucket (from 2 rounds of light rain). It's currently 71 and overcast with occasional light rain and drizzle, and dp 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Just like August we start off September with the 1st 5 days with well below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Storms Wednesday evening?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Newman said: Storms Wednesday evening?? Pretty hefty rainfall north and west...if that's correct looks like the storms will be doing the fizzle/fade as they move south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Ended up with 83 as a high yesterday and a low of 62 this morning. Currently mostly sunny and 78 with dp 61, so definitely not bad out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Tornado risk tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Flood watch already in effect for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Mount Holly on tomorrow: Guidance consensus suggests a stripe of MLCAPE values around 1000+ J/kg ahead of the front driven by low-level WAA and cooling in the mid-levels as it pushes into eastern PA and New Jersey. This combined with very favorable forcing for convection is expected to result in the development of widespread thunderstorms in the 21-00Z timeframe. The mesoscale and hi-res guidance has been consistent in developing a potent LLJ ~30-40 kts in the 00-03Z timeframe across Delmarva, SE PA, and New Jersey immediately ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front and leading mid-level shortwave. Forecast effective SRH values are fairly high (200-250 m2/s2) and effective inflow layer shear on the order of 25-30 kts. The 06Z and 12Z NAM hint at a secondary low pressure maxima developing along the front, which would further back the surface winds in the warm sector and increase the SRH. Deep layer shear appears to be on the order of 35- 40 kts immediately ahead of the cold front. These shear and kinematic values will be supportive of organized convection and rotating updrafts. The mean flow being largely parallel to the cold front suggests a mainly linear convective mode, but cannot totally rule out a few more discrete cells, especially ahead of the main front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Welcome to Delaware Tornado-Valley 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 LOL This is what WPC has for its twitter profile pic - It's definitely gotten juicy here today. Had a low of 64 but it's currently 84 with a dp of 72 and starting to cloud up but with breaks of sun. Mt. Holly has its precip outlook out and will see how this verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Looks tasty... In other news. I snapped this pic of what I believe is a lenticular cloud surfing a cumulous on the way home this afternoon... Possibly a pileus cloud? Heading north on 176. Neat! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said: Looks tasty... In other news. I snapped this pic of what I believe is a lenticular cloud surfing a cumulous on the way home this afternoon... Possibly a pileus cloud? Heading north on 176. Neat! Definitely looks like a lenticular cloud! https://www.weather.gov/abq/features_acsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 New MD just released for some of us: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1715.html Mesoscale Discussion 1715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...northwest New Jersey...southeastern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082015Z - 082215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather will gradually increase into early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are the main concerns. A conditional tornado threat exists in eastern Pennsylvania and southeastern New York. Timing and coverage of severe storms is uncertain. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...The 18Z observed Albany sounding showed relatively weak capping, but signs of subsidence aloft. This general profile seems to capture what is being observed on visible satellite across the Mid-Atlantic. Areas of cumulus, particularly within eastern Pennsylvania where temperatures are in the mid 80s F, have shown a gradual increase in depth. The subsidence aloft is likely limiting vertical development. With time, and additional mid-level cooling, storms should be able to initiate in the warm sector. Farther west, warm conveyor belt precipitation has generally been weak with only small embedded convective elements. A gradual increase in convective character may occur as this activity encounters more buoyant air. The greatest severe potential likely exists with any warm sector storms that can develop. Damaging winds, isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado could occur. Eastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York would be the favored zone for low-level rotation given slightly backed surface winds. Storms within the warm conveyor belt should exhibit a more linear storm mode and pose primarily a damaging wind gust risk. There is some uncertainty as to when storms will intensify this afternoon. Much of the guidance suggest it may not be until around or after 8 PM EDT. With potentially unfavorable timing diurnally, trends will have to continue to be monitored for a possible watch later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/08/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Timing on this one seems pretty poor but with the dynamics in place it may not matter much. The CAMs are pretty hit and miss in the overnight hours. N and W definitely has the best chance, it remains to be seen if the convection holds together for the 95 area overnight. The models that hold it together don't have it pushing through until after midnight. Lehigh valley looks to get slammed though in the 9 pm - 11 pm range. Line is still well off to the west right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 There's about a 10-20° temperature gradient across the front, with the larger differences to the south, though I think the loss of daytime heating as this thing moves east is going to reduce the threat for the I-95 corridor at least. The line looks much more robust more north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 This event seem way overhyped to anyone else? I mean, I'm all for a good storm but the news mets have all been squawking about this for a couple of days, getting everybody all riled up. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but this all seems pretty run-of-the-mill. I think they all need to dial it back a notch. People are storm-warning-fatigued enough as it is. On one hand, yes, everyone please pay attention, it might get stormy tonight. But on the other hand, it's not like every event has to be billed as OMG tHe WeAtHeR aPoCaLyPsE is upon us once again! Yeesh, maybe I'm the one who's fatigued... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: This event seem way overhyped to anyone else? I mean, I'm all for a good storm but the news mets have all been squawking about this for a couple of days, getting everybody all riled up. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but this all seems pretty run-of-the-mill. I think they all need to dial it back a notch. People are storm-warning-fatigued enough as it is. On one hand, yes, everyone please pay attention, it might get stormy tonight. But on the other hand, it's not like every event has to be billed as OMG tHe WeAtHeR aPoCaLyPsE is upon us once again! Yeesh, maybe I'm the one who's fatigued... I think it is more due to the potential for creek and river flooding, particularly to the north. For example, the Passaic near Pine Brook and Morristown in Jersey has been under a flood warning since Ida - And if that line moves as slowly as it has been, any training would just exasperate the flashier creeks. Plus you have people who were impacted by tornadoes last week with obliterated and/or damaged homes and I expect that if any cells pop up with some gusty winds, those can take down any trees that made it through Ida. I have heard (at least on KYW and from the NWS AFD) that it wasn't going to be anything like last week but because the ground is so saturated, it might not take much to overwhelm an area. I even heard that here in Philly, PennDOT literally pumped out 30 million gallons of water out of what I dub the "Vine Street Expressway Canal", in a couple days, so thankfully they got that out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 SPC woke up and threw up Severe Thunderstorm Watches for the CWA - Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 755 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC011-017-029-077-089-091-095-103-090400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0491.210908T2355Z-210909T0400Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CHESTER LEHIGH MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PIKE $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 755 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC003-019-021-027-031-035-037-041-090400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0491.210908T2355Z-210909T0400Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I think it is more due to the potential for creek and river flooding, particularly to the north. For example, the Passaic near Pine Brook and Morristown in Jersey has been under a flood warning since Ida - And if that line moves as slowly as it has been, any training would just exasperate the flashier creeks. Plus you have people who were impacted by tornadoes last week with obliterated and/or damaged homes and I expect that if any cells pop up with some gusty winds, those can take down any trees that made it through Ida. I have heard (at least on KYW and from the NWS AFD) that it wasn't going to be anything like last week but because the ground is so saturated, it might not take much to overwhelm an area. I even heard that here in Philly, PennDOT literally pumped out 30 million gallons of water out of what I dub the "Vine Street Expressway Canal", in a couple days, so thankfully they got that out of the way. Ok those are valid points. Hope I'm right all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Ok that line strengthened quite a bit. Still a ways out but we are getting the light show and low, distant rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Bit noisy out there, actually. Usually we see discrete cells producing bursts of lightning, but this whole line is producing. I feel now that I was a bit premature in my previous statements regarding the perceived reduced intensity of this system. Batten down the hatches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 And I've just been tornado warned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 This is a mess... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Yup, we're in the basement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CoolHandMike said: Yup, we're in the basement Canceled tornado warning...heavy rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Canceled tornado warning...heavy rain though. There were two spin-ups near me according to velocity scan, one headed right towards my subdivision. Front came through and the rain was loud enough to hear in the basement, thought that was all we heard, thankfully. Wish I was closer to a better radar. Threat has passed, now just heavy rain. .88" in the bucket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Quite a few damage reports from Berks county. Trees and power lines down across much of west central Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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