KamuSnow Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The bulk of last night's storms missed me. Some thunder & lightning, but just .10" in the bucket. Surprised at some of the rain totals around the region, were we expecting that?? 60F/DP60F It was mentioned in Mt. Holly's forecast discussion, but the meso models didn't nail the details so well. Got 1.15" here, plenty of thunder and lightning along with the sound of some grass seed getting washed down a hill, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The bulk of last night's storms missed me. Some thunder & lightning, but just .10" in the bucket. Surprised at some of the rain totals around the region, were we expecting that?? 60F/DP60F Looking at their tweet and the SPS they put up overnight, it looks like it just missed you to the south - Of course south of there got nailed (and I wish they hadn't drawn that SPS to exclude Philly at that latitude because that rain hit here in NW Philly - i.e., there was no "wall" along the border between Montco/Delco and Philly ). They also posted this (RER for KPHL for 2.3" of rain from that) - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: It was mentioned in Mt. Holly's forecast discussion, but the meso models didn't nail the details so well. Got 1.15" here, plenty of thunder and lightning along with the sound of some grass seed getting washed down a hill, lol. Man you have been getting your careful seeding efforts washed away over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: It was mentioned in Mt. Holly's forecast discussion, but the meso models didn't nail the details so well. Got 1.15" here, plenty of thunder and lightning along with the sound of some grass seed getting washed down a hill, lol. Sorry to hear about your seed. I thought they came out too early to aerate and seed my yard, but in hindsight it worked out. Sprouts started popping up before the rains returned. Hopefully you can take advantage of the warm Oct and get more seed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 44 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Looking at their tweet and the SPS they put up overnight, it looks like it just missed you to the south - Of course south of there got nailed (and I wish they hadn't drawn that SPS to exclude Philly at that latitude because that rain hit here in NW Philly - i.e., there was no "wall" along the border between Montco/Delco and Philly ). They also posted this (RER for KPHL for 2.3" of rain from that) - As Kamu noted, looking at yesterday's NAM and HRRR, it didn't look like anything more than a quick overnight shot of rain. I never bothered to look at the qpf forecast. Live & learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, JTA66 said: As Kamu noted, looking at yesterday's NAM and HRRR, it didn't look like anything more than a quick overnight shot of rain. I never bothered to look at the qpf forecast. Live & learn! I didn't expect it either given it seemed most of it had been to the north, with some very scattered pop ups here and there south of that band... and although I knew the front was dropping down from that direction and it was overnight, I figured things wouldn't have been as unstable as they apparently became. Before going to bed, I was looking at what appeared to be a convective boundary moving in from the NE and figured that would trickle in enough cooler air to stabilize things but apparently not. The cluster of cells with that heavy rain came up from the SW. So far my low has been 60 and I finally moved up to 62, with dp the same, and it's still overcast and misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Man you have been getting your careful seeding efforts washed away over and over. Not all of them, just the hilly areas in the back, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Sorry to hear about your seed. I thought they came out too early to aerate and seed my yard, but in hindsight it worked out. Sprouts started popping up before the rains returned. Hopefully you can take advantage of the warm Oct and get more seed down. Thanks, I appreciate that. I'm hoping the warm weather hangs on for another 10 days or so, once it turns it's pretty much game over at this time of year. One year I had frost blankets with heaters underneath (don't tell anyone lol), don't really want to repeat that experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 ECM weeklies keep this warmth through February lol. Lucky they are garbage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM weeklies keep this warmth through February lol. Lucky they are garbage N'ah, they're dead on. Our winter pattern usually settles in around March 20th to Memorial Day. 68F/DP 63F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Warm october's have a pretty good correlation to late november/december cold. I'll tolerate the warmer weather the next few weeks to get a shot at some early winter action. The Dec. 5 storms seem like ages ago. It'd be cool to get a solid early december snowstorm this year. A winter like 2010-2011 would be good in my book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Spent 20 minutes mowing my front yard and I am drenched. This just ain't right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Warm october's have a pretty good correlation to late november/december cold. I'll tolerate the warmer weather the next few weeks to get a shot at some early winter action. The Dec. 5 storms seem like ages ago. It'd be cool to get a solid early december snowstorm this year. A winter like 2010-2011 would be good in my book. I don't mind the extra warmth if it means earlier cold/snow, but does it have to be so dang humid??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Yesterday's high was just about normal....however the overnight low was about 15 degrees warmer than normal. Even warmer next week as even here in NW Chesco we might hit the mid-70's. Longer range models still show a cool down to closer to normal by later next weekend into the week of the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Made it up to 71 yesterday after a low of 62. This morning's stratus lifted pretty quick and had the sun attempting to pop in and out. After a low of 64 earlier this morning, am up to 68 with dp 63, and some occasional sunshine trying to poke through a deck of high clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Our 6th straight above normal day....now does a warm October = a warm winter?? what will the data show.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 On 10/4/2021 at 9:57 PM, RedSky said: Endless summer! As long as it gets cool for Halloween. "Cool" for Halloween is fine. Cold, not so much. This normal to even AN October so far coupled with the same outlook for at least the next 2 weeks bodes well for winter. I have compiled quite a bit of data for the upcoming winter outlook which I will delve into later in the month. Anyone watching the expanse and depth of snow-cover in Siberia and N Mongolia? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Almost feels like fall…64F/DP 58F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Almost feels like fall…64F/DP 58F. Almost... Saw a lightning bug out back last night, 3 or 4 confirmation flashes to boot. First time I've seen one in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Almost feels like fall…64F/DP 58F. Enjoy for now....highs predicted to be around 80F mid to late next week. 64F / DP 57F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Through yesterday we appear well on our way to one of the warmest October's in Chester County history with an average temp so far this month running over 6 degrees above normal. So does a warm October mean a "warmer" winter here in the County? Well below are 6 long term National Weather Service observer sites (Coatesville/Glenmoore/Phoenixville/Octoraro Lake, West Chester and Devault). I have ranked the top 10 warmest Octobers and compared them to the subsequent winter. Overall across all of the sites there is a 65% chance of a warmer than normal winter. But that said it is only slightly above normal at just 0.7 degrees across all 6 sites. Snowfall wise 2 seasons were above normal 3 near normal and 5 below normal snow seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Made it up to 78 yesterday after a low of 59. This morning's low was a "warmer" 61, where I did have some low stratus form here overnight that quickly lifted before sunrise, but the backdoor front plus the overcast/flow off the ocean, has kept the temps down so far. Currently overcast, with occasional breaks of sun, and 68 with dp 61, and it's not bad out at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Almost... Saw a lightning bug out back last night, 3 or 4 confirmation flashes to boot. First time I've seen one in October. Ya know, I thought I saw one the other night too but figured it was just my imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Ya know, I thought I saw one the other night too but figured it was just my imagination. Pretty sure we had one or two a week ago, never seen them in October either. The gnats and mosquitos all came roaring back to life in my backyard though, nothing I've done has been as effective as consistently colder temps at keeping them at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Just the barest hint of a sprinkle a little while ago while enjoying a backyard campfire. Didn't register in the gauge. Pretty pleasant out right now, our extended second summer notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Lots of glow worms here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 .08" overnight. Leaves are starting to pop a bit despite the continuing warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 13 hours ago, RedSky said: Lots of glow worms here We've seen a few here as well over the last week or so. Not sure how that works, usually see them in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now