IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

[Intensewind002]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Ida for our area one could argue was a Class IV Flood Event.  Sandy would be a Class III Wind Event and a Class V Surge Event.

We need to switch to impact based scales.....

 

What scale are you using?

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The precinct that covers the area in Staten Island that got 10 inches of rain was holding 313 911 calls all at once last night. Wild 

My friend works there. They were all flood jobs. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

What scale are you using?

None lol.  I'm saying we need to develop one like this, it would be similar to the Modified Mercalli scale for earthquakes (vs the Richter scale.)  The relative classes would signify how extreme (and rare) something is vs the worst that could happen (reasonably) and has to also take into account the physical size of the area impacted.

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

14 inches of rain? I think they would

This set records.....

 

Right but the coverage wouldn’t even be close. It happen end in the biggest city of the country. We’ve had these events happen before. But now it Occurred in NY. These tropical systems interacting with a trough would have flooded the colonists.  

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1/500 year I think.  I dont think that really matters since we seem to get at least 2 of these every year.  This was our second or third.

But both were tropical systems. Tropical systems are going to unload on someone.  Unfortunately both happened to be near NYC.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right but the coverage wouldn’t even be close. It happen end in the biggest city of the country. We’ve had these events happen before. But now it Occurred in NY. These tropical systems interacting with a trough would have flooded the colonists.  

I have a prime example of another event like that which was about 80 miles further east.....I don't know if you can obtain the precip maps to this one but if you can, look up the Islip deluge from August 2014.  Very comparable in terms of max rainfall but it was shifted 80 miles to the east.  Close to 14 inches of rain in 3 hours.  The standing state record.

There's also the August 2011 extreme rainfall event (pre Irene), that was centered 25 miles east of the city (in my area), 10 inches of rain in less than 6 hours.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

But both were tropical systems. Tropical systems are going to unload on someone.  Unfortunately both happened to be near NYC.

Yes, we've had three of these so far this season already.  All rain events.  Had 2 last year.  But one of those more of a wind event than a rain event (Isaias).  Depends on what side of the storm you're on.  Isaias last year had a very Sandy-like feel (in terms of wind, not surge of course) and was relatively dry here on the eastern side.  Did see reports of tornadoes on the Jersey shore.  Nothing like the two EF3 we have had this summer though.

 

[Intensewind002]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

None lol.  I'm saying we need to develop one like this, it would be similar to the Modified Mercalli scale for earthquakes (vs the Richter scale.)  The relative classes would signify how extreme (and rare) something is vs the worst that could happen and has to also take into account the physical size of the area impacted.

 

Yeah that’s actually a good idea, we can still keep the old scales and warnings. But adding a more coherent scale on ALL types of impacts would be a lot better than just wind.

[donsutherland1]

Some additional photos from the flooding and its aftermath:

Photos:

1-3: Harrison, NY; 4: Larchmont, NY; 5-6: Scarsdale, NY

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right but the coverage wouldn’t even be close. It happen end in the biggest city of the country. We’ve had these events happen before. But now it Occurred in NY. These tropical systems interacting with a trough would have flooded the colonists.  

The question is are they happening more frequently now? Well, to answer that in a different way, our average precip seems to be going way up if you compare 30 year precip norms now vs let's say a few decades ago.  I hate it.  There is nothing I dislike more than sticky, muggy tropical humid weather lol.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Yeah that’s actually a good idea, we can still keep the old scales and warnings. But adding a more coherent scale on ALL types of impacts would be a lot better than just wind.

Yes it makes it much more efficient to communicate to the public with.  Keep both and use them both differently.  Nothing wrong with describing a historic event like this in a multitude of ways.

[uncle W]

as bad as the storms were this Summer the record for the biggest rain fall still stands...

11.83" 09/21-23/1882

11.80" 10/08-10/1903

..9.19" 11/07-08/1977

..8.45" 04/15-16/2007

..8.19" 08/21-23/2021

..7.76" 09/13-14/1944

..7.19" 09/01-02/2021

..7.01" 10/12-13/2005

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The question is are they happening more frequently now? Well, to answer that in a different way, our average precip seems to be going way up if you compare 30 year precip norms now vs let's say a few decades ago.  I hate it.  There is nothing I dislike more than sticky, muggy tropical humid weather lol.

We are getting warmer. And that means more moisture. But could it also be an unlucky stretch too? The 50s had some rough floods as well. It’s tough to point fingers and Blame it on CC.

[GrindOutWins]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If this occurred 40 miles NW, nobody would be talking like you are. It’s unfortunate it all came together over NY metro.

I don't know if that's entirely true. You're saying "if this occurred 40 miles NW" - NW of where? Effects were felt from the Philly Metro on east, throughout almost all of NJ, the entirety of the greater NYC region, into the Lower and Mid Hudson Regions, up into the Capital District, east into Vermont, all of CT, all of MA, and parts of Eastern Maine. This wasn't a localized event. It was the complete opposite and that's what's most remarkable about it. You don't see sudden, flash flooding and wedge tornadoes spread over the entire Northeast like that anywhere in recorded, modern weather history. What non winter event was even remotely close to this? 

All of this, combined with the death/casualty toll - as well as cost - is something that's going to make this one for the books. In the northeast, you don't expect things to change that drastically, that quickly. It's just once or twice in a lifetime. 

edit: May 30/31, 1998: This was probably the most extreme, most widespread non winter event any of us can remember in the Northeast. What happened yesterday is just so far beyond that it's incredible. I honestly didn't think I'd see something like what just occurred in my lifetime. Not throughout the entire northeast. Who knows what tomorrow will bring? 

[GrindOutWins]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The question is are they happening more frequently now? Well, to answer that in a different way, our average precip seems to be going way up if you compare 30 year precip norms now vs let's say a few decades ago.  I hate it.  There is nothing I dislike more than sticky, muggy tropical humid weather lol.

It hasn't led to a winter event corresponding with some of these flooding events in 11 years now. That's the one big caveat. I don't know what else can be deduced from that except that eventually there's going to be a winter event on the scale of what we just saw. Eventually. 

[Intensewind002]

This is a vid my dad took yesterday as he was driving, or attempted to drive really, to work. I think it’s the LIE but not exactly sure

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!ACfOCntL1MBIt2c&cid=8A40D87C289A6855&id=8A40D87C289A6855!3947&parId=8A40D87C289A6855!1912&o=OneUp
 

 

[GrindOutWins]

One question: Why does August and September of 2011 (?) get lost in the shuffle? I spent a ton of time driving all across orange, putnam, and westchester counties that late summer. There was another clear 5"+ rainfall over the entire northeast. Anyone remember this? 

edit: There was actually a huge rainstorm in October followed by "Snowtober" a week later (2011). I can't remember weather this wild since then but I definitely know that the entirely of that period I'm talking about didn't cause the level of devastation that this event just did. 

[donsutherland1]

The top hourly rainfall figures were:

NYC: 3.47”

EWR: 3.62”

[GrindOutWins]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The top hourly rainfall figures were:

NYC: 3.47”

EWR: 3.62”

Right. "Maybe" one or two other events like that since 1900. 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, GrindOutWins said:

Right. "Maybe" one or two other events like that since 1900. 

The old record was 3.05” on September 4, 1913.

[eduggs]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

Duration (intensity) was the key to local flash flooding, not so much the totals. The 4-6" that occurred in NEPA through SENY was spread over approx. 12 hours, whereas the majority of the 5-8"+ across EPA, CNJ, NYC metro, and into SCT fell in a 3-5 hr period. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, GrindOutWins said:

It hasn't led to a winter event corresponding with some of these flooding events in 11 years now. That's the one big caveat. I don't know what else can be deduced from that except that eventually there's going to be a winter event on the scale of what we just saw. Eventually. 

I mean we did have the giant 30+ inch snowstorm in Jan 2016.  What an extreme winter that was, from record warm December to that snow bomb to below zero in February for the first time since the 40s.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, GrindOutWins said:

I don't know if that's entirely true. You're saying "if this occurred 40 miles NW" - NW of where? Effects were felt from the Philly Metro on east, throughout almost all of NJ, the entirety of the greater NYC region, into the Lower and Mid Hudson Regions, up into the Capital District, east into Vermont, all of CT, all of MA, and parts of Eastern Maine. This wasn't a localized event. It was the complete opposite and that's what's most remarkable about it. You don't see sudden, flash flooding and wedge tornadoes spread over the entire Northeast like that anywhere in recorded, modern weather history. What non winter event was even remotely close to this? 

All of this, combined with the death/casualty toll - as well as cost - is something that's going to make this one for the books. In the northeast, you don't expect things to change that drastically, that quickly. It's just once or twice in a lifetime. 

edit: May 30/31, 1998: This was probably the most extreme, most widespread non winter event any of us can remember in the Northeast. What happened yesterday is just so far beyond that it's incredible. I honestly didn't think I'd see something like what just occurred in my lifetime. Not throughout the entire northeast. Who knows what tomorrow will bring? 

also Labor Day 1998 we had an F2 tornado here!  I would also argue for November 1989 which was a horrendous severe weather event.

States of emergency in PA, NJ and NY, this was definitely not localized.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We are getting warmer. And that means more moisture. But could it also be an unlucky stretch too? The 50s had some rough floods as well. It’s tough to point fingers and Blame it on CC.

50s were crazy however the magnitude of 3"+ events and how much more frequent they are is whats the difference.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, GrindOutWins said:

One question: Why does August and September of 2011 (?) get lost in the shuffle? I spent a ton of time driving all across orange, putnam, and westchester counties that late summer. There was another clear 5"+ rainfall over the entire northeast. Anyone remember this? 

edit: There was actually a huge rainstorm in October followed by "Snowtober" a week later (2011). I can't remember weather this wild since then but I definitely know that the entirely of that period I'm talking about didn't cause the level of devastation that this event just did. 

Hey I mentioned August 2011

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Duration (intensity) was the key to local flash flooding, not so much the totals. The 4-6" that occurred in NEPA through SENY was spread over approx. 12 hours, whereas the majority of the 5-8"+ across EPA, CNJ, NYC metro, and into SCT fell in a 3-5 hr period. 

Yup. I got 5 inches but it was spread out over about 16 hours and there were no problems. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

as bad as the storms were this Summer the record for the biggest rain fall still stands...

11.83" 09/21-23/1882

11.80" 10/08-10/1903

..9.19" 11/07-08/1977

..8.45" 04/15-16/2007

..8.19" 08/21-23/2021

..7.76" 09/13-14/1944

..7.19" 09/01-02/2021

..7.01" 10/12-13/2005

I know 1903 was a hurricane that curved into ACY like Sandy did but what happened in 1882 and 1977?

1944 was extremely impressive too, big hurricane hit.

 

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean we did have the giant 30+ inch snowstorm in Jan 2016.  What an extreme winter that was, from record warm December to that snow bomb to below zero in February for the first time since the 40s.

 

It was the first subzero reading since 1994.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was the first subzero reading since 1994.

No I meant in the month of February.....haven't seen that in a long time.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

No I meant in the month of February.....haven't seen that in a long time.

 

Ok. Thanks.