IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

[MJO812]

Alternate  side parking suspended 

[dmillz25]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For how much rain we had last night, it feels absolutely awesome outside now, even chilly. 

Facts I had to throw on a sweater to go to work 

[Uniblab]

[jdt]

4.41” storm total. Avoided the worst by about 20-30 miles.

[guinness77]

14 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you better change your post, what date is the next 3" deluge to next 10" deluge...

Probably Sunday night into Monday morning at the rate we’re going at. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This is freshwater flooding that while still tragic isn’t as bad as saltwater flooding for property/equipment/electronics. There wasn’t an 8+ foot surge that inundated every coastal area. The subways won’t be shut down for weeks in many cases. There are places that had catastrophic effects from this but calling it “another Sandy” or worse is hyperbole. 

It’s all perspective. For some this was an inconvenience, only 2” at the wantagh meso in the neighborhood I grew up in, which was devastated during sandy. The difference is Sandy was more then an inconvenience for everyone as it also had widespread wind impacts. 

 

 

[Snowlover11]

absolutely nuts last night. never saw floodi g like this since floyd, if not worse.

[Nibor]

One of the flooding victims is a 2 year old child. 

[Dark Star]

I deeply apologize for failing to see the impending disaster.  I am very humbled.  

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

I deeply apologize for failing to see the impending disaster.  I am very humbled.  

You live and you learn

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I deeply apologize for failing to see the impending disaster.  I am very humbled.  

This was a shock to many

The trough energized  the storm

[Brian5671]

These tropical systems always seem to deliver.

Model review:

UKMET was the most consistent.  RGEM/CMC did well at the end but were too far south until about 48 hrs out. HRRR did well-pinpointed the high totals along and north of I-95   Interesting to see the models correct south at the last second yesterday, that's been rare-usually the north trend continues right up to go time. 

[MJO812]

Cranford, NJ is under water

People sitting on their roofs

Ch7 is live  there

Insane flooding there

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

These tropical systems always seem to deliver.

Model review:

UKMET was the most consistent.  RGEM/CMC did well at the end but were too far south until about 48 hrs out. HRRR did well-pinpointed the high totals along and north of I-95   Interesting to see the models correct south at the last second yesterday, that's been rare-usually the north trend continues right up to go time. 

Hope folks are checking the SPC HREF, which WPC follows closely for its D1-2.  VERY VERY good. 

[WE GOT HIM]

6 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

buy/rent a dehumidifier and hit the moisture hard.  drop desiccant everywhere you feel like, it’s a hell of a lot easier to remove than mold and a hundredth as dangerous and costly as mold is.  be liberal with bleach on spots if you think you have mold growth.  if you have the means get a professional early before it starts manifesting because it’s like bedbugs, an ounce of prevention is a pound of cure.

area mold professionals will be busy and charging accordingly.  if you put some work in over the next few days you will save yourself a lot of time money and stress.

Thanks man, really soild advice.

I already put the dehumidifiers into hose mode and have fans going.

Low dew point will help today too

[MJO812]

Another pic of Cranford , NJ

[kat5hurricane]

9 hours ago, Rjay said:

Cross Island Parkway.  My father-in-law sent this.

 

 

Holy. That's literally walking distance from my place. That portion of the Cross Island floods a lot (the Bell Blvd. exit in particular) but never anything like that.  Those cars going under is absolutely frightening, I hope those people made it out ok.

[MJO812]

Mother and son were killed in their basement in Queens after the flooding broke the wall outside and water drowned them inside.

[snywx]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Alternate  side parking suspended 

Yeah all the cars are parked on the highways 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Anyone have a link or site to see how much rain actually fell in each area ? Thanks in advance

 

[psv88]

In PA and supposed to be driving back to LI today…I think I’m going to push it back a day…

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hope folks are checking the SPC HREF, which WPC follows closely for its D1-2.  VERY VERY good. 

where do you access these models?

[Winter Wizard]

Worst natural disaster in the Northeast since Sandy 

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, user13 said:

Thanks man, really soild advice.

I already put the dehumidifiers into hose mode and have fans going.

Low dew point will help today too

yep open all available doors/windows, the sun and low humidity will help.  Good luck.

[SnoSki14]

Wow just noticed several rivers will approach Floyd levels of flooding or set new records.

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Not sure how this doesn't match or exceed Sandy. It looks like all the coastal areas that flooded in Sandy flooded here too, as well as the widespread inland areas that flooded last night that were pretty much unscathed in Sandy. Flooding rains aren't as exciting to the media as a landfalling hurricane-equivalent superstorm, but I have a feeling when the insurance claims are all in, this will be comparable or exceed the Sandy costs. 

Apples and Oranges. Sandy was a long duration devastating high wind and surge event while this was a shorter duration devastating freshwater flooding event. It's essentially a pick your poison situation but hard to compare the two because the events were very different in terms of the type of impact. I think this was scarier because it happened so suddenly making it hard to prepare especially for people on the road (and why they were driving in this is beyond me).

[Brian5671]

Larry next however just looks like a wave/high surf producer here

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where do you access these models?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Larry next however just looks like a wave/high surf producer here

Keeps shifting west but this will most likely be a fish .

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where do you access these models?

Check this out from the 12z cycle yesterday, available by 1530z when less than 0.10" had occurred NYC while I was near 0.9" in extreme nw NJ. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=conus

Change the date and cycle. Change the area of interest down from CONUS to NORTHEAST.  Then go to precip and review 24 hour MEAN at the three 24 hour intervals provided.  Then click MAX and check for the same time. I do the same for snow.  Also, can look at hourly mean ptype/amount, ditto wind (found under FIRE).  It's a tool...imperfect but I and believe WPC think it's the best available, for now. 

EC has a lot of fans but is inadequate when it comes to convective release (secondary imo to the NCEP GFS). 

ANY questions: write me.  I could conduct a ZOOM on how to use all these tools in predictive sense, but all who participate must have pretty good internet.