IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

[MJO812]

9 dead now in NYC

[Brian5671]

Close to 6 inches here

[MJO812]

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

9 dead now in NYC

Terrible. I wonder if there’s a listing yet of rain amounts areawide? Radar for me estimates about 6.5” total. 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, user13 said:

Lol

Many roads are still closed in the area. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Terrible. I wonder if there’s a listing yet of rain amounts areawide? Radar for me estimates about 6.5” total. 

All this damage and this wasn't even a hurricane. I don't want to even imagine how much damage a strong hurricane would do up here. This ranks up with Sandy .

[bluewave]

I am guessing that some spots may have approached 1000 year rainfall levels. NYC recorded a 500 year return interval for our old climate. But these return intervals will be shorter in our wetter climate.
 

 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All this damage and this wasn't even a hurricane. I don't want to even imagine how much damage a strong hurricane would do up here. This ranks up with Sandy .

This isn’t as bad as Sandy but it does look catastrophic in some areas. The problem as always is flooding here. NYC is surrounded by water on 3 sides and we have so much underground infrastructure that floods in a situation like this. Tragically my thought that our death toll might end up higher than the South’s from Ida looks like will verify. 

[CoastalWx]

Incredible stuff there. Wow. Kudos to the HRRR and HREF.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn’t as bad as Sandy but it does look catastrophic in some areas. The problem as always is flooding here. NYC is surrounded by water on 3 sides and we have so much underground infrastructure that floods in a situation like this. Tragically my thought that our death toll might end up higher than the South’s from Ida looks like will verify. 

This is worse than Sandy in some spots 

[crossbowftw3]

Leveled off with a final storm total of around 5”, which pretty much makes Ida surpass Isaias as the most rain I’ve seen from a TC since Irene

[uncle W]

7.39" total on the south side of Staten Island close to Richmond Ave and Hylan Blvd...

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

7.39" total on the south side of Staten Island close to Richmond Ave and Hylan Blvd...

I heard there is alot of flooding on Hylan

[wdrag]

Prelim:  CoCoRaHS data as of 720A, and reports possibly delayed where no power. The red is the max wsw-ene axis near I95 which favors SPC HREF and GFS modeled axis as best forecast, along with ENS.  The 10"s were possible.  Will detail the data when i can later on today, by which time you'll have many NWS lists. 

Added Radar-sensor combined. Appears to be 1/2-1" too low for yesterday.

Also added yesterdays 12z/1 SPC HREF showing general 5" swath just nw of NYC but also look at the max for same time period showing the spotting of 10-15" across NNJ to s CT. 

Finally some perspective: These amounts have occurred in the recent decade and will again, but over the identical areas as yesterday--- possibly not,  but close.  We can go back to the historic tropical data base into the mid 1950s when I was a kid floating paper boats down the rain swollen streets in Newton NJ in 1955 (Connie-Diane in an 8 day period of early August).  Yesterdays problem was in part antecedent conditions but I think mostly that 80% of the rain fell in less than 3 hours. NO URBAN SYSTEM can handle that unless budget allocations change and there is too much else to care for. Finally: misuse of data is too much drama. For instance: Unprecedented use of the term Flood EMERGENCY.  NWS implemented that I think it was 2017-18. Not a very long period of record.  

Tentatively: I'll review further but I will log this as a moderate event except major where 8"+ and deaths.  The MAJOR 8+ was much more extensive than I had capability of confidently predicting as well as over NYC.  (Not much flooding here in Wantage despite 4+".) 

The TOR added spice but this was mainly a heavy rain event with gusty winds 40-60 MPH causing the uproots, branch breakage-power outages. 

 

Added NYS Mesonet just after initial post. 

 

 

[wdrag]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am guessing that some spots may have approached 1000 year rainfall levels. NYC recorded a 500 year return interval for our old climate. But these return intervals will be shorter in our wetter climate.

 

I like but am concerned since the lack of good data prior to 150 years ago.  People will use this, but am concerned.... wait til something bigger happens. (AGNES over I-95)
 

 

 

[uncle W]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I heard there is alot of flooding on Hylan

not near me...probably near old town and new dorp...

[cptcatz]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn’t as bad as Sandy but it does look catastrophic in some areas. The problem as always is flooding here. NYC is surrounded by water on 3 sides and we have so much underground infrastructure that floods in a situation like this. Tragically my thought that our death toll might end up higher than the South’s from Ida looks like will verify. 

Not sure how this doesn't match or exceed Sandy. It looks like all the coastal areas that flooded in Sandy flooded here too, as well as the widespread inland areas that flooded last night that were pretty much unscathed in Sandy. Flooding rains aren't as exciting to the media as a landfalling hurricane-equivalent superstorm, but I have a feeling when the insurance claims are all in, this will be comparable or exceed the Sandy costs. 

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn’t as bad as Sandy but it does look catastrophic in some areas. The problem as always is flooding here. NYC is surrounded by water on 3 sides and we have so much underground infrastructure that floods in a situation like this. Tragically my thought that our death toll might end up higher than the South’s from Ida looks like will verify. 

Some of those areas had 8-10 inches of rain from Henri just 10 days ago-so this round of flooding had a head start with saturated ground.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Not sure how this doesn't match or exceed Sandy. It looks like all the coastal areas that flooded in Sandy flooded here too, as well as the widespread inland areas that flooded last night that were pretty much unscathed in Sandy. Flooding rains aren't as exciting to the media as a landfalling hurricane-equivalent superstorm, but I have a feeling when the insurance claims are all in, this will be comparable or exceed the Sandy costs. 

This is freshwater flooding that while still tragic isn’t as bad as saltwater flooding for property/equipment/electronics. There wasn’t an 8+ foot surge that inundated every coastal area. The subways won’t be shut down for weeks in many cases. There are places that had catastrophic effects from this but calling it “another Sandy” or worse is hyperbole. 

[Byrdhousebv]

Finished with 1.97" for the storm here in N.E. Monmouth Co.

Convection overnight was modest.

Currently clearing with T 63.1  D 52.8. 

[bch2014]

15 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Not sure how this doesn't match or exceed Sandy. It looks like all the coastal areas that flooded in Sandy flooded here too, as well as the widespread inland areas that flooded last night that were pretty much unscathed in Sandy. Flooding rains aren't as exciting to the media as a landfalling hurricane-equivalent superstorm, but I have a feeling when the insurance claims are all in, this will be comparable or exceed the Sandy costs. 

Ehh. I live in the financial district, which was hit hard by Sandy. Haven’t heard of or seen major damage here. 

[ForestHillWx]

The damage in north jersey is major, likely catastrophic once the rivers crest and the clean up bills are totaled. Sad to see the loss of life out of NYC. 

Just a tremendous amount of rain in an already saturated environment in the most densely populated metro region in the US with storm/sewers systems from the 1800s in some places. Recipe for destruction. Too bad the Garden State no longer has as many farms it was once known for. 
 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, uncle W said:

not near me...probably near old town and new dorp...

Most likely the usual areas. 

[uncle W]

the car shortage got worse last night...I wonder how many cars were ruined by flooding?...

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This is freshwater flooding that while still tragic isn’t as bad as saltwater flooding for property/equipment/electronics. There wasn’t an 8+ foot surge that inundated every coastal area. The subways won’t be shut down for weeks in many cases. There are places that had catastrophic effects from this but calling it “another Sandy” or worse is hyperbole. 

Sandy was a beast with the high surge but I barely had any rain with Sandy. Luckily  I didn't have any flooding last night but I had massive flooding with Sandy. 

Another reason why this was worse than Sandy in many areas ( heavy rain last week)

Many areas got 6+ inches of rain from Henri.

[bluewave]

Flemington,NJ Cocorahs at 11.00”.

 

Daily Precipitation Report
Station Number: NJ-HN-58	Station Name: Flemington 2.9 ESE
Observation Date	9/2/2021 7:00 AM
Submitted	9/02/2021 8:09 AM
Total Precip Amount	11.00 in.
Notes	--
Taken at registered location	Yes
Snow Information
New Snow Depth	NA
New Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Total Snow Depth	NA
Total Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Duration Information
Precipitation Began	--
Precipitation Ended	--
Heavy Precip Began	--
Heavy Precip Lasted	--
Duration Time Accuracy	--
Additional Information
Additional Data Recorded	No
Submitted	9/02/2021 8:09 AM
Flooding	--

 

[uncle W]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Flemington,NJ Cocorahs at 11.00”.

 

Daily Precipitation Report
Station Number: NJ-HN-58	Station Name: Flemington 2.9 ESE
Observation Date	9/2/2021 7:00 AM
Submitted	9/02/2021 8:09 AM
Total Precip Amount	11.00 in.
Notes	--
Taken at registered location	Yes
Snow Information
New Snow Depth	NA
New Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Total Snow Depth	NA
Total Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Duration Information
Precipitation Began	--
Precipitation Ended	--
Heavy Precip Began	--
Heavy Precip Lasted	--
Duration Time Accuracy	--
Additional Information
Additional Data Recorded	No
Submitted	9/02/2021 8:09 AM
Flooding	--

 

you better change your post, what date is the next 3" deluge to next 10" deluge...

[jm1220]

For how much rain we had last night, it feels absolutely awesome outside now, even chilly. 

[Intensewind002]

Finished with about 1.89” of rainfall yesterday in sw suffolk

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For how much rain we had last night, it feels absolutely awesome outside now, even chilly. 

Feels like autumn outside