IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

[justinj]

Just got a Tornado warning on my iPhone at work in Smithtown 

[Northof78]

Just now, Nibor said:

The river flooding is going to have to be near historic, right?

Yes, it is here...

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

Big Bird ?

Big bird had better turn into a duck.  

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

gfs has less then a inch for the city never again do i want to hear anyone talk about the goofus model..

What about the euro?  The nam was bad too.  It happens.  

[weathermedic]

4.17 inches at my station so far. Very light rain at the moment.

[Intensewind002]

75 in lindenhurst, dp of 73. 5 degree jump in the last hour or so

[NJRunner]

Downtown Ramsey is flooding. im at college but according to my parents (who grew up there) this is the first theyve seen it flood since the 1970s

[Rjay]

 

[dmillz25]

The city could see another 2” plus inches my goodness 

[psv88]

Tornado warning for NW Suffolk

[Dan76]

Just now, Intensewind002 said:

75 in lindenhurst, dp of 73. 5 degree jump in the last hour or so

Welcome to the jungle oy

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

gfs has less then a inch for the city never again do i want to hear anyone talk about the goofus model..

RGEM did very well. Quite a few of its runs had a swath of 8 to 10 inch rains going across central NJ.

[winterwarlock]

8.18 inches here..starting to wind down

[Rjay]

There was likely a spin-up west of Lloyd Harbor

 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Yup

really heavy rain ongoing on the south shore of Nassau county, we are playing catch up now!

 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There was likely a spin-up west of Lloyd Harbor

 

 

Look at the current frame, eatons neck getting wrecked...

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Walt - any thoughts on river flooding levels for the Raritan and other major rivers?  Floyd type levels or less.  Seems like there was a bit more rain in Floyd (10-14" common in the Raritan watershed vs. 7-10" now, by my quick inspection), but antecedent conditions before Floyd were much drier, so maybe it'll be close.  

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

[ForestHillWx]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The river flooding is going to have to be near historic, right?

I think NJwx85 makes the best point; the Passaic will back the tributary rivers up; exacerbating the problem. 

That river meets the Whippany and Rockaway rivers before the Pompton. It’s a tremendous volume of water that drains a large part of northern NJ. And that’s just the Passaic. The Raritan river watershed will be worse in my opinion based on the numbers so far. Downtown Bound Brook is going to be annihilated. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What about the euro?  The nam was bad too.  It happens.  

**** just had a major CTG so the power might be going out soon

the rain has gotten really heavy too, we're playing catch up now

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What about the euro?  The nam was bad too.  It happens.  

true but everyone laughed at the rgem and it was right lol..

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Look at the current frame, eatons neck getting wrecked...

south shore of nassau getting hit hard too, news 12 just said everyone on long island will have 4 inches plus before it's all over

 

[ForestHillWx]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

But look at the current obs, compared to forecast. The trajectory could easily rival Floyd. I don’t wish that on anyone. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

Floyd always gets downplayed for some reason.....granted it happened at the tail end of a major drought

 

[Dan76]

Crazy shit coming off the ocean now

[Gravity Wave]

Historic flooding in SEPA, still pouring there:

[NJwx85]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

I think NJwx85 makes the best point; the Passaic will back the tributary rivers up; exacerbating the problem. 

That river meets the Whippany and Rockaway rivers before the Pompton. It’s a tremendous volume of water that drains a large part of northern NJ. And that’s just the Passaic. The Raritan river watershed will be worse in my opinion based on the numbers so far. Downtown Bound Brook is going to be annihilated. 

Indeed, runoff usually lasts 24 hours after rain stops so rivers won’t crest until tomorrow night.

[STORMANLI]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Look at the current frame, eatons neck getting wrecked...

Warned area just north of here

[gmendevils8204]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Floyd always gets downplayed for some reason.....granted it happened at the tail end of a major drought

 

That was a legit storm. The main road in my town was flooded and we didn’t have school for two or three days.

[NJwx85]

OMG

 

[Dan76]

LEGIT!!!