IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

[wdrag]

Another tropical related event is coming to much of the area as described by our IDA outlook thread participants. It may push the summer totals to near record levels, and possibly start the month of September with a months worth of rainfall in just one day, maybe even in 6 hours.  Public impacts will be serious in some areas from the I-95 corridor and LI northward. Thank you for participating. 

[wdrag]

Rainfall steady since 415A in Wantage and measuring. Models seem to be a little light on the se flank (I95) this morning.  Added ARI from WPC. Recurrence interval not often for these amounts. Definitely would not go north like EC and instead hug the HPC HREF down to I95 in NJ and LI.  Wind gusts 35-45kt may take down some water sodden trees overnight. TOR risk in SNJ may briefly move up to NYC-LI this eve but that may be too far north?  Strongest winds appear in the northerly flow overnight. 

[Snowlover11]

light rain started at 5am ish here in yonkers.  brief break but the wall of rain is once again on the doorstep.

[gmendevils8204]

Already raining here. Radar looks to fill in quickly. Nasty day ahead.

[wdrag]

.33 Wantage NJ 743A, a bit higher amounts near the Delaware so far. 

[hudsonvalley21]

.24 here so far.

[gravitylover]

.18-.2 already.

[Snowlover11]

.20” so far in Yonkers.

[jets]

Just over .40 in Flemington, NJ

[crossbowftw3]

Eyeballing around ~.25 so far, going to be one incredibly messy day all around for everyone.

[snywx]

.33” so far 

[IrishRob17]

.32" 66/64, steady light rain

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 0.45 as of 858A.

[Byrdhousebv]

.3 so far today.

[ForestHillWx]

Looking out my window there is moderate/heavy rain. Not sure why the bust posts. 

[Snowlover11]

0.3” in the bucket

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

.32" 66/64, steady light rain

.81 64/62, steady light rain in Campbell Hall, NY

[snywx]

2 hours ago, snywx said:

.33” so far 

62F 

1.01” so far 

[hudsonvalley21]

0.94 as of 11:38 am.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Looking out my window there is moderate/heavy rain. Not sure why the bust posts. 

Because models were predicting 8-10 inches of rain.

Looking at radar, the immediate metro area will miss out on several hours of heavy rain as it skirts north (at least initially)

Without those hours of precip, the storm totals becomes a bust.

Now, if you are in the mid Hudson Valley…caching.

But that is off by 80-100 miles in terms of heaviest precip bands.

By modern forecasting expectations, that is a model error (not huge, but significant nonetheless)

I believe it is cloudy in Forest Hills at moment, and pouring in Newburgh. That distance is the “bust”

 

 

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Because models were predicting 8-10 inches of rain.

Looking at radar, the immediate metro area will miss out on several hours of heavy rain as it skirts north (at least initially)

Without those hours of precip, the storm totals becomes a bust.

Now, if you are in the mid Hudson Valley…caching.

But that is off by 80-100 miles in terms of heaviest precip bands.

By modern forecasting expectations, that is a model error (not huge, but significant nonetheless)

I believe it is cloudy in Forest Hills at moment, and pouring in Newburgh. That distance is the “bust”

 

 

Dont even need to go as far as forest hills…streets in the southwest bronx are almost dry, over 1/2” in rockland already. 

[forkyfork]

are you guys unaware of how much rain can fall from tropical convection in a short amount of time

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

are you guys unaware of how much rain can fall from tropical convection in a short amount of time

that's what's missed here-look at Henri-8-10 inches in parts of NJ/NY

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

are you guys unaware of how much rain can fall from tropical convection in a short amount of time

True. 

All it takes is a couple hours to drop 2-4"+ amounts.

[hudsonvalley21]

1.34 as of 12:30 pm

[gpsnavigator]

Light rain at the moment, as the big stuff is off to the north and west for now.  But, I hope that future radar is wrong.

I'll take a bust to the low side of things - too much rain in that short of time on already saturated ground has too many problems written all over it.

[crossbowftw3]

Must already be approaching 1.5” here at 5 to the hour, very concerned about later.

[IrishRob17]

1.58" as of 1pm, 64/62

[MJO812]

Ukmet and cmc hits NYC hard later 

[donsutherland1]

A heavy shower is moving through parts of southern Westchester County.