high risk Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: That presentation by the 12Z 3K NAM looks strange for the Eastern areas, not to mention total rainfall is pathetic. Example, most of Delware gets nothing. except for an East to West stripe near Dover, DE. Areas in the FFW . although they will flood with much less rainfall, are still only in the area of .25 inches or under. General coverage is very eratic. That NAM3 run thinks that most of the convection will die before reaching Delaware - it has a few scattered cells moving across the state much later tonight. It's not an unreasonable solution that convection will not be widespread at the unfavorable time of day. That said, there are other CAMs that generate enough forcing ahead of the front to compensate for the limited late-night instability, and they have more widespread and heavier rain in eastern areas later tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 2 hours ago, high risk said: That NAM3 run thinks that most of the convection will die before reaching Delaware - it has a few scattered cells moving across the state much later tonight. It's not an unreasonable solution that convection will not be widespread at the unfavorable time of day. That said, there are other CAMs that generate enough forcing ahead of the front to compensate for the limited late-night instability, and they have more widespread and heavier rain in eastern areas later tonight. Thanks. FYI a rogue storm hit Middletown 30 minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 5 hours ago, toolsheds said: Luckily when #2 went to college 2 weeks ago, impressive. most #2s just got dropped off at the pool... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: impressive. most #2s just got dropped off at the pool... Funny thing is....this # is is as smart as $h1t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 As we lose a litte more sunlight everyday, along with mid September climo, it would suggest a downward trend regarding temps the next couple of weeks, however, the new normal September has us climbing higher and higher. Yuck ! From Mount Holly, this says it all....... < Strong southwest flow at 850mb will bring in much warmer air and daytime temps should have no problem rising into the mid to upper 80s through the midweek period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Come on…you should know better than to assume that hitting 90 in mid-September is anything new. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: Come on…you should know better than to assume that hitting 90 in mid-September is anything new. I’m so done with it 80s, let alone 90s. Was in New England over the weekend and had a couple mornings drop below 50. More of that please. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Flood Watch issued for northern suburbs. 611 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Maryland, north central Maryland, northeast Maryland and northern Maryland, including the following areas: in central Maryland, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard and Northwest Montgomery. In north central Maryland, Carroll and Frederick MD. In northeast Maryland, Cecil. In northern Maryland, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. * Until 2 AM EDT Thursday. * Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight. Average rainfall amounts of one-half to one inch is expected. However, thunderstorms will contain very heavy rainfall with rainfall rates around 1 to 3 inches per hour. Localized rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible. * Heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time may cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks as well as the potential for flash-flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Flood Watch issued for northern suburbs. 611 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... Mount Holly just added Northern Delaware to a FFW Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 604 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 DEZ001-090800- /O.EXB.KPHI.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210909T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle- Including the cities of Wilmington 604 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of northern Delaware... including the following area...New Castle. * Until 4 AM EDT Thursday. * Thunderstorms with heavy rain are forecast to move through the region this evening into the overnight period. Heavy rainfall of one to two inches may quickly lead to flooding of flood prone and other low-lying areas due to rapid runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 29 minutes ago, mattie g said: Come on…you should know better than to assume that hitting 90 in mid-September is anything new. I can dream though. I imagine surf temps will be like the last few years, maintining above 70 F. deep into September, maybe even early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Flood Watch issued for northern suburbs. I am getting ready to go out and water everything 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: I am getting ready to go out and water everything Yeah…no models has northern MD getting that much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yeah…no models has northern MD getting that much rain. While the location of the max is jumping around (as it often does), the last several consecutive HRRR runs all have a 2-4" max somewhere in north-central or northern Maryland. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch includes most of the DMV until midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Absolutely fantastic lighting going on right now to my West. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Frequent lightning showing up to our west via PTZ on east tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Lots of lightning, and wind has picked up. Looks like the first line will miss me and go North of MD 340. Was wrong, raining hard now in Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Lots of lightning, and wind has picked up. Looks like the first line will miss me and go North of MD 340. Was wrong, raining hard now in Brunswick. Yea I was watching it. I am just south of 340 over in Ballenger Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollenwiese Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 The lightning show to the west of Frederick, prior to the storm being overhead, had to be the best of the year. Just fantastic. A mean looking storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Pouring here. Sounds like hail also but cannot confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: Pouring here. Sounds like hail also but cannot confirm. Might have been an inch+ from this band. Been pouring here for the last 15-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: Might have been an inch+ from this band. Been pouring here for the last 15-30 mins. Here is my station so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Mrs.J said: Absolutely fantastic lighting going on right now to my West. Same for me! The Gettysburg and north part was booming. Constant flashes, anvil crawlers, even some shooting out the top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Lightning frequency has dropped considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Radar showing a tiny little line screaming North West around the Bay bridge looks weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, peribonca said: Radar showing a tiny little line screaming North West around the Bay bridge looks weird That happens relatively frequently. @MN Transplantmentioned sun spike, and when I last saw what you’re seeing now, it made sense. But I think it’s a little late for a sun spike, but I don’t know. All I know is that the one on radar now is the same location as others I’ve seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 All our phones just went off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 That happens relatively frequently. [mention=1746]MN Transplant[/mention]mentioned sun spike, and when I last saw what you’re seeing now, it made sense. But I think it’s a little late for a sun spike, but I don’t know. All I know is that the one on radar now is the same location as others I’ve seen.I’ve never seen it run all the way out into the Atlantic like it is now. Interesting that no one knows the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Mrs.J said: Absolutely fantastic lighting going on right now to my West. Woo!!! Great shot!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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