Stormfly Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, mappy said: Its a good observation. Our 'severe' storms are lame compared to the plains lol. Its also worth noting that we've had two tropical systems come through, prompting quite a few warnings. Our "severe" barely meet severe as defined. However when they do show up, it's often when we least expect it and warnings may not be in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 If this morning’s forecast had been a winter storm forecast, this place would be unreadable right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 You know it’s gonna be a bad winter when the first freeze contest isn’t even up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: You know it’s gonna be a bad winter when the first freeze contest isn’t even up yet. Good luck with that... I don't even see any 40s for lows east of the BR until probably October... so no real need for it for like another month lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 48 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: If this morning’s forecast had been a winter storm forecast, this place would be unreadable right now. A little late, but maybe things are about to get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 JEBMAN RED ALERT, for potentially heavy rains over the Mid Atlantic / Washington Metropolitan Region. You guys just keep right on piling it up! This, is what is gonna happen this winter, only then it will be SNOW. ...Update to include the Washington Metro area/portions of northern Virginia into the Flash Flood Watch. The previous discussion follows... An upper-level trough will continue to dig over the Great Lakes tonight while a cold front (currently over western Maryland) moves into the area from the northwest. A southerly flow has caused an unstable atmosphere with the latest mesoanalysis showing around 1500-2500 MLCAPE near/east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Convergence near the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains is increasing in response to the approaching cold front from the northwest and an outflow boundary that was seen on KLWX radar moving southeast to northwest earlier this evening. At the same time, deep layer shear and low-level shear are increasing in response to the digging trough and falling heights. Therefore, it is likely that showers and heavier thunderstorms will develop near the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains of northern VA and north-central Maryland this evening, before slowly propagating southeast. A few severe storms are possible due to the instability and shear, with damaging winds being the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the eastern WV panhandle, central MD, portions of northern VA, and the Washington Metro area. Also, with increasing moisture and a shear vector nearly parallel to the approaching cold front, this suggests that heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may train over any particular area before the cold pool eventually takes over. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for central and northeastern MD as well as northern Virginia and the Washington Metro area where confidence is highest for the potential of training convection and Flash Flood Guidance is lower. The stronger convection will shift toward southern MD overnight, but more showers will likely persist as the upper-level trough approaches and large scale lift ensues due to the right entrance of the upper-level jet strengthening overhead and the cold front still nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 at least we have the NFL starting again 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 My beach forecast looking good for most of next week Temps in the low 80s along the coast, nights near 70, rain chances to end the week but that's okay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Beach would be awesome right now! Swells from Larry, very warm temps! I remember swells from Bonnie back in '98 very well. It was quite strong just off Assateague beaches and there were red flags for rip currents which are best avoided unless you know what you can get into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Beach would be awesome right now! Swells from Larry, very warm temps! I remember swells from Bonnie back in '98 very well. It was quite strong just off Assateague beaches and there were red flags for rip currents which are best avoided unless you know what you can get into. Mindy will probably cause swells too for the first few days of our trip, but we will be fine. Cannot wait to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Currently in Cumbria, in the Lake district. Just gorgeous here. Did some hiking today and took a bunch of photos. I could totally live here, and this area gets some decent snow most winters. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 A couple more... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Staying in a place called Cockermouth, which is a lovely town, but the name can compete with some of the funniest you will find in the state of PA. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Ravens RBs dropping like flies. Y’all gonna be looking for any body soon 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, H2O said: Ravens RBs dropping like flies. Y’all gonna be looking for any body soon Marcus peters probably too! What the f*ck is happening!?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Christ Gus Edwards too. What a disaster. Thought the Ravens figured out how to not do this after all the lower leg injuries of a few years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Latavius Murray time? Barry Sanders? Jim Brown maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Marcus peters probably too! What the f*ck is happening!?! I daresay this one hurts more...you can committee RBs...not so much star corners 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 I'm heading to Jackson Hole Wyoming next Wednesday checking the daily temps it's looking like highs around 70 lows in the 30s maybe at least right now. It's my first time there hopefully they've picked up all of the trash left behind by the flyover state tourists 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 One more sleep until the beach!!!!!!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Hey, my "friend" thought it would be funny if he logged in under the name SnowenInThere or something like an alt account and spam the site, this is not me. So just a heads up to the mods and such, I doubt he will but it would not be beyond him. In other words it is about as likely as Ji getting excited about a snow event but just in case wanted to make this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 35 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Hey, my "friend" thought it would be funny if he logged in under the name SnowenInThere or something like an alt account and spam the site, this is not me. So just a heads up to the mods and such, I doubt he will but it would not be beyond him. In other words it is about as likely as Ji getting excited about a snow event but just in case wanted to make this message. no such name has joined. but thanks for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 20 hours ago, CAPE said: Staying in a place called Cockermouth, which is a lovely town, but the name can compete with some of the funniest you will find in the state of PA. The town stole my nickname. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 8 hours ago, mappy said: One more sleep until the beach!!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 The soundtrack of the last 5-6 years of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Last day in Cumbria. Went to the area with the highest peaks, with the highest being Scafell Pike at 3200 feet. Unfortunately there were a lot of low clouds and drizzle so the dramatic rocky peak was not visible. Still got some decent shots. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 A nice upgrade coming to the CMC for the upcoming fall and winter. Implementation expected early next week (9/14). Here's a bit of a summary of the findings based on reanalysis of the parallel vs the current ops. Quote GDPS 7.0.0 is a major upgrade which improve significantly forecast accuracy during evaluations against the previous version GDPS 6.1.0. Most of the improvements are related to a major upgrade of the atmospheric model GEM where physical parametrizations have been revisited in an effort towards the 'unification of the model physics' at the CMC. Indeed, the GDPS and RDPS are now very similar models in terms of the model physics settings, with only minor differences in parameters sensitive to resolution. In addition, the GDPS 7.0.0 features a resolution increase in both vertical and horizontal directions. The sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) analyses have also been significantly improved. During the two evaluation periods, improvements were seen in all upper-air and surface variables, throughout the forecast lead times but more notably for the first 120 hours with a reduction of 5 to 10 percent of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Precipitation is also improved in both seasons of the final cycles across North America. Objective evaluation of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts showed improvements in TC tracks, frequency and threat scores in GDPS-7.0.0 when compared to GDPS-6.1.0. These improvements are attributed to the major changes in the physical parametrizations of the atmospheric model, in particular the improved parametrization of convective momentum transfer in the deep convection scheme. Finally, objective scores obtained for the parallel run during spring 2019 clearly confirm the conclusion of the performance evaluation of the R and D phase for both upper air and surface evaluations, although the improvement is not as important. Indeed, spring being a transition season, evaluation results are a blend between the differences observed for the winter and summer seasons. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 13 hours ago, mattie g said: The soundtrack of the last 5-6 years of my life. Better than Caillou 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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