frd Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 On 9/21/2021 at 8:37 AM, mattie g said: Sure...it was warm last week, but I think that recency bias plays a big role in how people perceive future weather. I'm not arguing that we're not gaining temps on the margins on average, but I just don't think we can make grandiose statements about how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be based on what are essentially temps within a margin of error (for lack of a better term). Are you sure about that? This stat, ( below ) is for nearby NY Central Park, but other sites up and down the east coast have been warming dramatically. This is from Donald Sutherland recent post: New York City's Central Park is on track to record a low temperature of 70° or above today. The mean last date such a temperature has increased 4 days from September 10 (1951-80) to September 14 (1991-20). The interval from the first and last dates has also widened 9 days to 104 days during that time. Most of that widening has occurred during the most recent 30-year period (104 days vs. 96 days for 1981-2010). Overall, September has been warming to the extent that it is now more an extension of summer than gateway into autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 ^That's a really good post, I was saying that some of that energy could carry over into early October this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 @frd My comment about "how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be" isn't related to long-term trends, but rather to actual conditions in the here and now. Like I said, I'm certainly not arguing against the idea that we're gaining temps on the margins. I just think people are biased in how they perceive forecast near(ish)-term progs based on recent conditions. One thing on temp increases that would be great to distangle is the effect that UHI (and things like re-paving/re-siting like at BWI) has had on the obs at the reporting stations. Again...I'm no climate change denier (far from it!), but I'd be curious if there were a way to see how much those large-scale increased temp averages at reporting stations are affected by UHI creep, etc. and how that might bias actual overall temp increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 hour ago, mattie g said: @frd My comment about "how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be" isn't related to long-term trends, but rather to actual conditions in the here and now. Like I said, I'm certainly not arguing against the idea that we're gaining temps on the margins. I just think people are biased in how they perceive forecast near(ish)-term progs based on recent conditions. One thing on temp increases that would be great to distangle is the effect that UHI (and things like re-paving/re-siting like at BWI) has had on the obs at the reporting stations. Again...I'm no climate change denier (far from it!), but I'd be curious if there were a way to see how much those large-scale increased temp averages at reporting stations are affected by UHI creep, etc. and how that might bias actual overall temp increases. The UHI problem is well-known and accounted for in larger-scale analyses. This summer wasn't super hot, but it shouldn't have been based on where the ridge set up in the west. It is actually kind of sad that we didn't end up below normal. I think the late season humidity also skewed perception of the summer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: The UHI problem is well-known and accounted for in larger-scale analyses. This summer wasn't super hot, but it shouldn't have been based on where the ridge set up in the west. It is actually kind of sad that we didn't end up below normal. I think the late season humidity also skewed perception of the summer. Dude, it’s like you heard the conversation Watergrandpa and I had yday. Eerie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 August can be summed up in one word. Swampy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 hours ago, MN Transplant said: I think the late season humidity also skewed perception of the summer. from bluewave. And yes, the dew points have been off the hook ! < Continuation of our new subtropical climate theme. The dew point at JFK reached 70° again today. This was the 64th day so far this year. All the top years for 70° or higher dew points have occurred since 2016. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js #1…..89 days….2018 #2….77 days…..2019 #3….68 days…..2016 #4….64 days…..2021…2020 > 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 We need a special emoji for special posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: We need a special emoji for special posts. define special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 37 minutes ago, mappy said: define special? Blueberry in the hurricane thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 47 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Blueberry in the hurricane thread. you should see him in OT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Blueberry in the hurricane thread. He's making me hate the fruit and I love the fruit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 This was supposed to be for the first cold night, but I couldn’t wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: This was supposed to be for the first cold night, but I couldn’t wait. Close enough because this might be the coldest night until March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 I’m not huge on stouts, but Sapwood Cellars in Columbia has an imperial stout called Mole’d. Pretty incredible. I bought two cans and am saving them for a pork taco night sometime this fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m not huge on stouts, but Sapwood Cellars in Columbia has an imperial stout called Mole’d. Pretty incredible. I bought two cans and am saving them for a pork taco night sometime this fall. I'll be your friend for that pork taco night. One can for you, one for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: I'll be your friend for that pork taco night. One can for you, one for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not huge on stouts, but Sapwood Cellars in Columbia has an imperial stout called Mole’d. Pretty incredible. I bought two cans and am saving them for a pork taco night sometime this fall. Got two of their Dripped in my fridge. I think their anniversary celebration is this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not huge on stouts, but Sapwood Cellars in Columbia has an imperial stout called Mole’d. Pretty incredible. I bought two cans and am saving them for a pork taco night sometime this fall. Sapwood is fantastic, and I’m pretty sure they hold a place in the hearts of many a local homebrewer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Drinking a BCBS (2018) Vanilla right now. Celebrating what feels like the real start of stout season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 I have a cool idea for forum members to collaborate on an ongoing project. What if we collectively did a blog on the most memorable events our forum has covered! Anyone can participate. The idea would be to write a brief summary for each event and include links to articles and data from the event! Anyone interested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 It was 20years ago College Park and N va outbreak occurred. What a interesting day that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 22 hours ago, mattie g said: Drinking a BCBS (2018) Vanilla right now. Celebrating what feels like the real start of stout season. Picked up a 4 pack of KBS Espresso yesterday. Really looking forward the the Utopias barrel-aged WWS, due out next month. Hopefully in a week or 2. I missed the initial release of it last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Have my first swim meet of the winter season with the YMCA today, its a duel meet in Fredrick MD and the YMCA has a new swimming pool. Wondering if anyone from Fedrick has seen the new YMCA swimming pool? Anyways can't wait for the meet today I get to swim 50 Free which is great, 100 Breaststroke which is ok and 100 Fly which is... bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Man, the Whistling Straits course is beautiful! They’re playing so early that I thought I was watching them from across the pond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Man, the Whistling Straits course is beautiful! They’re playing so early that I thought I was watching them from across the pond. I had the same thought! Go USA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 I’m now in that phase of the day when I spent so much time outside doing stuff that everything hurts. so now it’s all about the advil and adult beverages to make the ache go away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Ravens will be without 4 starters on the D-line due to COVID, in addition to all the other injuries, against Detroit. They have good depth though, and Detroit is a pretty crappy team right now, so no excuses to not win this game, even on the road. Only sloppy play will prevent a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, H2O said: I’m now in that phase of the day when I spent so much time outside doing stuff that everything hurts. so now it’s all about the advil and adult beverages to make the ache go away I am right with you. Been at it all day, and just took my third shower. Now relaxing with a beer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Just got off at Nepenthe and enjoying their Oktoberfest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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