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Ghost of Ida Impacts Thread


WxWatcher007
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah but we don't know exactly where the stuff sets up. No need to have several million people think they're going to float away. I think strong wording is good and then you handle it with the warnings. Public won't respond to watches. They'll respond to people like Ryan talking about possible impacts.

Completely agree with this

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That's a separate issue (over warning for flooding... which we've done forever) than issuing a tropical storm warning for some 35 knot gusts or something. 

And it's the over warning for flooding which probably degrades the actual need for such a watch on a day like today. 

 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Completely agree with this

And it's the over warning for flooding which probably degrades the actual need for such a watch on a day like today. 

 

If that warm front gets north inverted goes out the window  and convection can bring some good gusts then there is the backside.  Flash flood with possible power outages?

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This isn't a tropical storm ...  you wouldn't issue a TSW for an event that isn't a TS -

If one wants to consider a high wind watch/warning... by all means.  But, I agree with Ryan all the way on that guys.  We have a shockingly bad realization at the surface, N-W of all coastal zones, when it comes to wind events - they are over forecast some 90% of the times. ...not sure who said what and for where...just sayn'

It's really as though these wind products - in process - overturn the fluid viscosity of the static negative buoyancy factor of inversion - i.e., that can't really physically happen.  All guidance clearly indicates a stable layer that only deepens when hygroscopically cooled, and the ballast wind momentum is simply not going to mix down given that synoptic awareness. 

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37 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I dunno.  This has not been a rainy summer here....even though it has been all around us.  Steinage seems possible with the best forcing in central and northern CT.

And yet there’s now a camp which places the heaviest QPF in southern and south central Connecticut (as far as CT) is concerned I mean

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It's like folks are throwing reasons out to up this to even more terrifying dystopian lust realization ... but no -

this is a rain anomaly.  Enjoy it for what it is.  For some ... they'll flood. For others, they'll tsunamis us with reasons in posts why it wasn't as big as advertised. 

Lol...  ( snark )

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If that warm front gets north inverted goes out the window  and convection can bring some good gusts then there is the backside.  Flash flood with possible power outages?

Yeah there could certainly be some damaging wind gusts with any convection although it kinda seems like that will be limited here in Connecticut outside of closer to the coast. I'm a bit more concerned with tornado potential across extreme southern Connecticut...especially if the warm front were to tick north by another 15-20 miles. Hi-Res guidance actually pretty aggressive with generating a line of low-topped supercells (which actually may not really be low topped). 

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