WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 The HRRR model continues to drown my area on every single run. 7-8” every run/ time. That’s a lot of rain in a 20 hr period. Yikes., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Absolutely pouring here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Sandy too if I recall correctly 4 feet West Virginia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah but we don't know exactly where the stuff sets up. No need to have several million people think they're going to float away. I think strong wording is good and then you handle it with the warnings. Public won't respond to watches. They'll respond to people like Ryan talking about possible impacts. Completely agree with this 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That's a separate issue (over warning for flooding... which we've done forever) than issuing a tropical storm warning for some 35 knot gusts or something. And it's the over warning for flooding which probably degrades the actual need for such a watch on a day like today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Completely agree with this And it's the over warning for flooding which probably degrades the actual need for such a watch on a day like today. If that warm front gets north inverted goes out the window and convection can bring some good gusts then there is the backside. Flash flood with possible power outages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Bufkit has gusts to about 30 maybe 35kts at BDL. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 This isn't a tropical storm ... you wouldn't issue a TSW for an event that isn't a TS - If one wants to consider a high wind watch/warning... by all means. But, I agree with Ryan all the way on that guys. We have a shockingly bad realization at the surface, N-W of all coastal zones, when it comes to wind events - they are over forecast some 90% of the times. ...not sure who said what and for where...just sayn' It's really as though these wind products - in process - overturn the fluid viscosity of the static negative buoyancy factor of inversion - i.e., that can't really physically happen. All guidance clearly indicates a stable layer that only deepens when hygroscopically cooled, and the ballast wind momentum is simply not going to mix down given that synoptic awareness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I dunno. This has not been a rainy summer here....even though it has been all around us. Steinage seems possible with the best forcing in central and northern CT. And yet there’s now a camp which places the heaviest QPF in southern and south central Connecticut (as far as CT) is concerned I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 It's like folks are throwing reasons out to up this to even more terrifying dystopian lust realization ... but no - this is a rain anomaly. Enjoy it for what it is. For some ... they'll flood. For others, they'll tsunamis us with reasons in posts why it wasn't as big as advertised. Lol... ( snark ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The HRRR model continues to drown my area on every single run. 7-8” every run/ time. That’s a lot of rain in a 20 hr period. Yikes., to be fair...the bulk of that falls in a 6-8 hour window 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: to be fair...the bulk of that falls in a 6-8 hour window True. Even more yikes lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If that warm front gets north inverted goes out the window and convection can bring some good gusts then there is the backside. Flash flood with possible power outages? Yeah there could certainly be some damaging wind gusts with any convection although it kinda seems like that will be limited here in Connecticut outside of closer to the coast. I'm a bit more concerned with tornado potential across extreme southern Connecticut...especially if the warm front were to tick north by another 15-20 miles. Hi-Res guidance actually pretty aggressive with generating a line of low-topped supercells (which actually may not really be low topped). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 .50” of rain here so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: Time to build the Ark I guess or at least make sure your gutters are clear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 GFS remains outlier in far west and north with this. Still shows 3.5 inches here but big difference from Canadian/HRRR/ RAP/UK HUGE difference in placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Tropical storm warnings ....um no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 55 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: For those who like looking at such things: lock it in. i fully expect to <0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: GFS remains outlier in far west and north with this. Still shows 3.5 inches here but big difference from Canadian/HRRR/ RAP/UK HUGE difference in placement I'd use meso's at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Just now, Brian5671 said: I'd use meso's at this point.... Ya, NWS said they’re giving more weight to Hi Res short term modeling on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Pretty obvious some of the more NW model runs are busting even with this initial band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Pretty obvious some of the more NW model runs are busting even with this initial band. Good catch. Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 You can see on the radar loop that the whole huge mass of precipitation is enlarging and expanding and back building to the west as well. The thing is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Pretty obvious some of the more NW model runs are busting even with this initial band. Like was said this morning ...these next 6 hours might be telling as to the behavior of this. Some may get NARCAN'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Pretty obvious some of the more NW model runs are busting even with this initial band. We’ve only had a few light sprinkles up here in the Route 2 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Hot off the press from Box: extremely bullish. Expanding SPC risk. Very concerned about storms along south coast of ma/RI and as far north as PVD to BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 28 minutes ago, hammerz_nailz said: Holy moly, congrats RI and Ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Congrats, Dunder Mifflin on the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Hot off the press from Box: extremely bullish. Expanding SPC risk. Very concerned about storms along south coast of ma/RI and as far north as PVD to BOS. Go figure. I was and MEH'd for asking about this the other day and this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Go figure. I was and MEH'd for asking about this the other day and this AM. This could be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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