Ghost of Ida Impacts Thread

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

12z NAM was a bit NW with axis of heaviest precip compared to 06z in the NY/CT area. Agreed its a nowcast regarding numbers and actual jackpot areas. 3-5" would be a good soaking for this area but nothing too usual. 7-8"+ is a different mattter.

If that 3-5” comes all in a short period, on top of the saturated and soggy ground, that’s a problem. 

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, hammerz_nailz said:

we are phucked

in a good way. Exciting impacts and possibilities. Let's gooooo

[Cyclone-68]

Time to build the Ark I guess 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The news media , They May struggle to  brain storm and find a way Bc the flooding angle is so relatively rare for here . Could be the rare “under hype “ . They may not have a “go to” template for flooding . 
 

 

that's an interesting point ... lacking the encyclopedia of canned/stock shock phrases -   might have to actually 'write' for a change, huh. 

heh, I actually wonder if an episode of "How It's Made" on The Science Channel might be an interesting/tongue-in-cheek watch ...as they go into the software and editorial tech machine of big media. 

[Ginx snewx]

44 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

At least not around here.  Disconcerting to say the least when you have consensus across models for a huge rain event.  Likely the high ends are wrong but you never can rule out with a storm of tropical origins.

 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If that 3-5” comes all in a short period, on top of the saturated and soggy ground, that’s a problem. 

Up close. Even though technically its isn't they should hoist tropical storm warnings

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

You could easily still jack there is no consensus 

I doubt it. Congrats SW CT and New York area 

[Typhoon Tip]

It seems like two aspects are subtly happening as we are in very short range:  one, ...the axis of heaviest is trying to shift south in these higher res experimental model types;  two, ... it seems while still as anomalously large in the y amt axis, the x- axis ...or areal coverage appears to be honing along a narrowing field.  

These may just be artifacts of model noise...I dunno.  Not here to ruin anyone's dopamine delivery or nothin' ...just seems so

[snowman21]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Up close. Even though technically its isn't they should hoist tropical storm warnings

You would need sustained 39+ to meet the criteria. These are just gusts into the 40s/50s which is wind advisory territory.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Up close. Even though technically its isn't they should hoist tropical storm warnings

That raises an excellent point.

This should have a different type of warning outside of Flood/Flash Flood Watches and warnings. 

I would certainly argue something along the lines of a tropical advisory would make sense from a communication standpoint. 

[Bostonseminole]

tested pump, working .. a few of us will probably be posting overnight when this peak

[Cyclone-68]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Is this similar in any way to the TorCon system that the Weather Channel uses?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

You would need sustained 39+ to meet the criteria. These are just gusts into the 40s/50s which is wind advisory territory.

Guess you missed the technically its not. You would need other criteria as well. But the damage results would qualify. Sometimes scientists are so bound by strict rules they miss the opportunity to give the public proper heads up. No one is highlighted the possibility of winds 40 to 50 witt 6 plus inches of rain. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Like I mentioned yesterday, when Brian938402048 weenied me - looks like a tor threat on the south coast

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is this similar in any way to the TorCon system that the Weather Channel uses?

I guess it would be. Just shows Tornado parameters are highly conducive to Tornado formation.

[NeonPeon]

What I've learned this summer is that a storm would rather crawl across the entire country than dip its toes in our cold water.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Guess you missed the technically its not. You would need other criteria as well. But the damage results would qualify. Sometimes scientists are so bound by strict rules they miss the opportunity to give the public proper heads up. No one is highlighted the possibility of winds 40 to 50 witt 6 plus inches of rain. 

BINGO

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I doubt it. Congrats SW CT and New York area 

I dunno.  This has not been a rainy summer here....even though it has been all around us.  Steinage seems possible with the best forcing in central and northern CT.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Guess you missed the technically its not. You would need other criteria as well. But the damage results would qualify. Sometimes scientists are so bound by strict rules they miss the opportunity to give the public proper heads up. No one is highlighted the possibility of winds 40 to 50 witt 6 plus inches of rain. 

I have but it’s fallen on Helen Keller ears. 

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Guess you missed the technically its not. You would need other criteria as well. But the damage results would qualify. Sometimes scientists are so bound by strict rules they miss the opportunity to give the public proper heads up. No one is highlighted the possibility of winds 40 to 50 witt 6 plus inches of rain. 

Because flooding is by far a much bigger threat. Besides a mention of some 40 mph gusts it's a waste of time to be honest.

During the event we are quite inverted north of the warm front so those gust products seem overdone. As the storm pulls away there's a brief window for some 30-35 knot gusts but it doesn't look particularly impressive to me especially with a life-threatening flood event happening before. 

The Flash Flood Watch is enough for today. 

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Snowfall associated with a tropical system actually occurred in NE in 1804 (New England Snow Hurricane) and 1963 (Hurricane Ginny)

Sandy too if I recall correctly

[Cyclone-68]

If we do go full Waterworld with this at least keep Kevin Costner away..

[dendrite]

No one in the MidAtl is even gusting over 20kt right now. lol

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Because flooding is by far a much bigger threat. Besides a mention of some 40 mph gusts it's a waste of time to be honest.

During the event we are quite inverted north of the warm front so those gust products seem overdone. As the storm pulls away there's a brief window for some 30-35 knot gusts but it doesn't look particularly impressive to me especially with a life-threatening flood event happening before. 

The Flash Flood Watch is enough for today. 

IDK...there should be something that provides stronger value into potential like today. Not that flash flood watches are super common here but they aren't super rare either. I guess the question that comes down to is, how does the general public typically respond to something like a flash flood watch? Maybe those who live in flood prone areas may take it with some seriousness but my wager is most people probably do nothing or don't even pay attention. 

In a potential like this...there should be something highlighting the greater potential.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

IDK...there should be something that provides stronger value into potential like today. Not that flash flood watches are super common here but they aren't super rare either. I guess the question that comes down to is, how does the general public typically respond to something like a flash flood watch? Maybe those who live in flood prone areas may take it with some seriousness but my wager is most people probably do nothing or don't even pay attention. 

In a potential like this...there should be something highlighting the greater potential.

Yeah but we don't know exactly where the stuff sets up. No need to have several million people think they're going to float away. I think strong wording is good and then you handle it with the warnings. Public won't respond to watches. They'll respond to people like Ryan talking about possible impacts.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK...there should be something that provides stronger value into potential like today. Not that flash flood watches are super common here but they aren't super rare either. I guess the question that comes down to is, how does the general public typically respond to something like a flash flood watch? Maybe those who live in flood prone areas may take it with some seriousness but my wager is most people probably do nothing or don't even pay attention. 

In a potential like this...there should be something highlighting the greater potential.

That's a separate issue (over warning for flooding... which we've done forever) than issuing a tropical storm warning for some 35 knot gusts or something. 

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have but it’s fallen on Helen Keller ears. 

Some get it

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie still south coast.

[moneypitmike]

For those who like looking at such things:

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK...there should be something that provides stronger value into potential like today. Not that flash flood watches are super common here but they aren't super rare either. I guess the question that comes down to is, how does the general public typically respond to something like a flash flood watch? Maybe those who live in flood prone areas may take it with some seriousness but my wager is most people probably do nothing or don't even pay attention. 

In a potential like this...there should be something highlighting the greater potential.

I'd say most don't pay attention because most don't have to.