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Ghost of Ida Impacts Thread


WxWatcher007
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The rates are going to get some. Like areas maybe north of pike have longer duration. It's possible near and south of pike get a break and then just monster rates for 3-4 hrs will be the main rain event. It's possible during this time that 3-5"+ falls in that 3-4 hrs.

Yeah down here the rates and widespread nature of the rainfall could make it really ugly. BOX is using some strong language in the flash flood watch, as they should. 

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it’s been raining down here near new haven since 6am. We are on a hill, but ground water comes up at times during certain weather events. Following because the last time we flooded basement wise was about 15 years ago. Ground was still frozen and we got inches of rain in a short time. Went to go to work and heard a splash in our basement. Sure enough we had 3-4 feet of water down there. The sump pump was unplugged. Keep in mind we were told it was never used and there just incase when we bought the house… 

not looking forward to this potential. Never mind our garage may flood too

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Getting a bit concerned about TOR potential tonight across southern Connecticut. Models getting a bit more aggressive with (at least coastal CT) warm sector getting into the state. Models spitting out some pretty damn impressive CAPE to go along with tremendous shear. A strong tornado couldn't be ruled out if this pans out. 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Getting a bit concerned about TOR potential tonight across southern Connecticut. Models getting a bit more aggressive with (at least coastal CT) warm sector getting into the state. Models spitting out some pretty damn impressive CAPE to go along with tremendous shear. A strong tornado couldn't be ruled out if this pans out. 

I'm shocked    lol

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Take the smeared guts of a TC and flop it over the top of a baroclinic axis that has modest synoptic lift support by weak 500mb jet running by enhancing lift, and you get deposition results that end up much, much larger than the sum of the individual parts going into the ordeal.

Synergistic flood.  

The PWAT alone is hefty but not enough - or is it?    The jets of the synoptic field are weak and wouldn't do it.  The boundary isn't impressively defined, but is enough there to define an elevated frontal slope, nonetheless...  

I think it is interesting that model physics 'see' that synergy.   The next 6 hours of now-cast and observations may also be useful in this, up stream ... See how the hourly bucket rates are comparing to model omens there over NE PA and so forth.

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