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Ghost of Ida Impacts Thread


WxWatcher007
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High risk expanded a little further north through CT

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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021
 
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF 
THE NORTHEAST...
...WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING 
LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION 
INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...Northeast...
Signals remain strong for potentially deadly and damaging flash 
flooding from parts of the Mid-Atlantic region across southern New 
York into the southern portion of New England today and 
tonight...especially across highly urbanized metropolitan areas 
and areas of steep terrain...later today as Tropical Depression 
Ida moves through the area.  The latest WPC QPF guidance 
maintained areal average rainfall amounts of 3 to 8 inches with 
isolated higher amounts from western Maryland and Pennsylvania 
northeastward across southern New York and into the southern 
portion of New England.  High resolution guidance continues to 
support higher amounts embedded with this area...with amounts in 
excess of 8 inches still in the realm of possibility.  While the 
NAM NEST and HRRR produce hourly rainfall rates sufficient to 
produce flash flooding, concern grows when precipitation reaches 
far eastern PA into New Jersey and southern NY which was still 
hydrologically sensitve since the passage of Henri.  There was a 
bit of a northward shift in the latest global guidance, but the 
risk area largely maintained continuity with the previous runs and 
the previous ERO.

 

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