Cyclone-68 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Would the sun coming out make any difference with this? The rain is over for the moment and it’s partly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I have a hunch Jack zone will run from about DXR to HVN to PVD on south side and NW CT up to CEF to ORH on north side. That whole area looks to me like ground zero given warm front is farther north than it looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Feels and looks like S CT will be the jack imo Steinage so far within 15 miles of the coast. I'm going for less than 3" at BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have a hunch Jack zone will run from about DXR to HVN to PVD on south side and NW CT up to CEF to ORH on north side. That whole area looks to me like ground zero given warm front is farther north than it looked What time? Are we waiting for that stuff in the mid Atlantic to slide east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Steinage so far within 15 miles of the coast. I'm going for less than 3" at BDR. It'll be close...some models keep the warm front just to our south...if that happens we'll get hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 People will see widespread 3"........ relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 These HRRR runs nit backing down on uber totals is a bit unnerving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Evacuations ongoing in Wilmore PA now. A taste of what's to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: These HRRR runs nit backing down on uber totals is a bit unnerving. 18z is crazy again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: What time? Are we waiting for that stuff in the mid Atlantic to slide east? There’s a 6-8 hour window from about 10- 4am tonight. Today’s rains have already overperformed . It just helped to prime all the waterways and ground for main show tonight . Most of us in C and N Ct closing in on an 1” already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 already over 1.25" here and pouring again.....I can see some of those crazy numbers happening if the stuff in PA makes it up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a 6-8 hour window from about 10- 4am tonight. Today’s rains have already overperformed . It just helped to prime all the waterways and ground for main show tonight . Most of us in C and N Ct closing in on an 1” already. I think today’s rains in your area were reasonably modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think today’s rains in your area were reasonably modeled? It was supposed to start in the afternoon . I’ll be over 1” by 4:00.. with a juicer of a radar to the WSW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think today’s rains in your area were reasonably modeled? I don’t know…. I recall the forecast the way they said yesterday was just supposed to be “increasing clouds” for most of Wednesday light rain started here at like 7am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: People will see widespread 3"........ relax These ulvl dynamics are no joke. There is a ton of ulvl divergence. Once the remnants of Ida interact with this even more...oh joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I don’t know…. I recall the forecast the way they said yesterday was just supposed to be “increasing clouds” for most of Wednesday light rain started here at like 7am! All models had decent rains in that area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I don’t know…. I recall the forecast the way they said yesterday was just supposed to be “increasing clouds” for most of Wednesday Yesterday AM disc Wednesday... Clouds will be lowering and thickening in advance of Ida/s remnants Wednesday morning. As the remnant low approaches from the southwest, the forcing for ascent will increase from southwest to northeast. There are some timing differences amongst the models with pockets of lingering dry low/mid level air. That being said, the threat for showers will increase from southwest to northeast Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in 70s, but its possible a few spots in eastern MA/RI could take a run at 80. We do think though that the heavy rain/flood threat will hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday when the better dynamics arrive. This will be discussed in the long term portion of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Evacuations ongoing in Wilmore PA now. A taste of what's to come... I dunno ... might wanna get this underway - For east of the Hudson rad keeps eating back. The heavier band extension into CT appears to modestly weaken. Probably just panic but ...heh, if this/these trends continue, may wanna change this thread title to 'Ghost of Any Impacts Thread' ... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yesterday AM disc Wednesday... Clouds will be lowering and thickening in advance of Ida/s remnants Wednesday morning. As the remnant low approaches from the southwest, the forcing for ascent will increase from southwest to northeast. There are some timing differences amongst the models with pockets of lingering dry low/mid level air. That being said, the threat for showers will increase from southwest to northeast Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in 70s, but its possible a few spots in eastern MA/RI could take a run at 80. We do think though that the heavy rain/flood threat will hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday when the better dynamics arrive. This will be discussed in the long term portion of the forecast. Yeah models held off in CT until mid- late PM up till yesterday. Nothing had it raining here by 6:00 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno ... might wanna get this underway - For east of the Hudson rad keeps eating back. The heavier band extension into CT appears to modestly weaken. Probably just panic but ...heh, if this/these trends continue, may wanna change this thread title to 'Ghost of Any Impacts Thread' ... Blowing its load early it seems, nothing but blanks by the time it gets here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It was supposed to start in the afternoon . I’ll be over 1” by 4:00.. with a juicer of a radar to the WSW I was taken by surprise on the start time. I thought it was supposed to hold off till after sunset today for my area. Started around 10am. Not much has fallen but it ruined a solid day of work for my GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Absolutely dumping rain here as we hit 1” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 All modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Absolutely dumping rain here as we hit 1” Only .58 so far here in the lowlands at 667' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Considering mesoanalysis is showing close to zero CAPE, those are some pretty good looking cells developing in S. CT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Just now, hammerz_nailz said: Only .58 so far here in the lowlands at 667' His gauge gets excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Southward trend. of course. I really hope this isn't the theme for this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 AEMATT better be sure the Euro backside winds are out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno ... might wanna get this underway - For east of the Hudson rad keeps eating back. The heavier band extension into CT appears to modestly weaken. Probably just panic but ...heh, if this/these trends continue, may wanna change this thread title to 'Ghost of Any Impacts Thread' ... I certainly think the RT 2 corridor is pretty safe from any damaging floods. The past few hours I've been watching the northern advance of the heavier precipitation held in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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