JC-CT Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Hot off the press from Box: extremely bullish. Expanding SPC risk. Very concerned about storms along south coast of ma/RI and as far north as PVD to BOS. For tors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: For tors? Yes and flooding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Like was said this morning ...these next 6 hours might be telling as to the behavior of this. Some may get NARCAN'ed It plays tricks on the eyes. You look at it and it looks like it’s all lifting north. But then when you study, and look for the hidden image, you see it’s really building in and down on the east side of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: It plays tricks on the eyes. You look at it and it looks like it’s all lifting north. But then when you study, and look for the hidden image, you see it’s really building in and down on the east side of it How many flooded basements do you see? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2021 Author Share Posted September 1, 2021 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Day 1 Valid 16Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... 16Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing risk areas throughout the country. For the Northeast offices, latest Hi-Res continues to place the swatch of heaviest QPF along the southern portions of PA northeastward into northern NJ, CT, and RI. Extremely dangerous and deadly flooding is possible within this region throughout the rest of the day and into this evening. Numerous flooding events have already been reported with water rescues taking place. See MPDs 0919 and 0920 for more details on the current situation and expected evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Not seeing it ... (sev convection) Could be wrong, sure - ...but I don't believe this synoptic mechanical layout is moving the front "back" N and it's already succeeded the S.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: How many flooded basements do you see? Can I have a tab 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Can I have a tab If this is in reference to what the hidden image is, it will go over my head. I cant see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Not seeing it ... (sev convection) Could be wrong, sure - ...but I don't believe this synoptic mechanical layout is moving the front "back" N and it's already succeeded the S.C. But there is a slight risk of tornados though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 toss the models at this point. mesoanalysis is where it's at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 that cell in the ocean, southeast of Long Island probably has an EF2 waterspout going on.....impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: But there is a slight risk of tornados though. HRRR shows what the SPC is saying as well. Threat is along the South Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Best supercell of the year currently south of Long Island? Riding right along the warm front. Probably a sweet waterspout underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Pretty good agreement that we'll see as much as 1000-1500 J/ML CAPE with 150+ J 3km CAPE push into coastal CT, RI, and SE MA. You throw those numbers into the shear we have and it gets quite concerning, especially since we're talking after dark. Often times you look at convection being low topped in these setups...but I don't think that is going to be the case here and that alone should increase TOR potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 There's the mention for some strong tornadoes...actually use "intense". That's my concern for coastal areas here later * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 the moisture feed into SE PA, Eastern MD looks like it is coming from the Gulf....impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Ukie looks a bit like the mesos. Goes wild in Ginxy's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 S of pike will jack , hopefully flooding damage is minimal for CT/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: S of pike will jack , hopefully flooding damage is minimal for CT/RI What time do you think it will all blow up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 26 minutes ago, JC-CT said: If this is in reference to what the hidden image is, it will go over my head. I cant see it. LSD (Colloquially known as acid) is typically in the form of a tab, which are ripped off from sheets of hydrophilic paper. These sheets tend to have wild and "trippy" patterns on them, like the ones above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 The cell S of LI is nice looking, last night the mesos had that look just offshore and beyond where MLCAPE exceeded 1000 j/kg. Will be interesting to watch S areas anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: S of pike will jack , hopefully flooding damage is minimal for CT/RI Glad I"m north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Glad I"m north of the pike. Yeah. You only get 4+ inches..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 The relative helicity is going to be quite high up to the pike. Really impressive on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: can you post it? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc&rh=2021090112&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 If UKIE verified that's hundreds of flooded basements in Newport. Or, more flooded, if they live in the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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