moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 NAM is north. Douses Litchfield/Hartford/Hampden/Hampshire/Worcester counties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 35 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I know it’s just the HRRR… but ouch. This could get people killed That’s 7-10” for all of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s 7-10” for all of CT NAM with 6-8” north and west of HFD. Hopefully all of that convection along the wf robs my area of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 INeedSnow is going to be getting a little rain instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: INeedSnow is going to be getting a little rain instead. I complain but I’m still poised for 3.9 inches. It just unnerves me not to be in the main action on this model. I want to drown lol JK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s 7-10” for all of CT Congrats Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I complain but I’m still poised for 3.9 inches. It just unnerves me not to be in the main action on this model. I want to drown lol JK It's always fun to be in the bull's-eye. Of course, a rain jp is so much less uplifting than a snow one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: It's always fun to be in the bull's-eye. Of course, a rain jp is so much less uplifting than a snow one. Well, it tends to move you more horizontally than vertically let’s just say. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: NAM with 6-8” north and west of HFD. Hopefully all of that convection along the wf robs my area of moisture. Globals are north and Mesos more along and north of warm front . Makes a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: NAM is north. Douses Litchfield/Hartford/Hampden/Hampshire/Worcester counties NAM 3KM is everywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: NAM 3KM is everywhere! Yeah--much more prolific and widespread than 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 34 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: INeedSnow is going to be getting a little rain instead. A lot of rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats Ginx. One stop shopping 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 This is a bit of a different distribution than 00z. Congrats New London through the South coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Very stormy night ahead. And will be a lot of surprised people waking up in middle of night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2021 Author Share Posted September 1, 2021 High risk expanded a little further north through CT Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 428 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...Northeast... Signals remain strong for potentially deadly and damaging flash flooding from parts of the Mid-Atlantic region across southern New York into the southern portion of New England today and tonight...especially across highly urbanized metropolitan areas and areas of steep terrain...later today as Tropical Depression Ida moves through the area. The latest WPC QPF guidance maintained areal average rainfall amounts of 3 to 8 inches with isolated higher amounts from western Maryland and Pennsylvania northeastward across southern New York and into the southern portion of New England. High resolution guidance continues to support higher amounts embedded with this area...with amounts in excess of 8 inches still in the realm of possibility. While the NAM NEST and HRRR produce hourly rainfall rates sufficient to produce flash flooding, concern grows when precipitation reaches far eastern PA into New Jersey and southern NY which was still hydrologically sensitve since the passage of Henri. There was a bit of a northward shift in the latest global guidance, but the risk area largely maintained continuity with the previous runs and the previous ERO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Looks like we’ll probably avoid the worst here…. Still a solid 2-3” nothing to sneeze at 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I don't know how the qpf distro compares, but seeing all that heavy rain in NJ makes me think of the remains of Floyd which came through when I was living there I guess around '99 or so?? What a mess it was. No power for quite a while iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like we’ll probably avoid the worst here…. Still a solid 2-3” nothing to sneeze at Thinking the same here--maybe up a tick to 2.5 - 3.5. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Local met says 1.8" for our hood. I'll take the under with the NAM and expect 0.4"Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Lol at the last 3 posts. "We 3 qpf queens of New England are" 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol at the last 3 posts. "We 3 qpf queens of New England are" Yep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 BOX disco mentioning what I was saying yesterday regarding the models and what they are focusing on regarding globals and mesos. So, still some differences. But I’d say mesos nudged north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Are the mesos placing the warm front in a different spot from the globals? Which would one expect to perform better in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very stormy night ahead. And will be a lot of surprised people waking up in middle of night Looks like more models jackpot all or southern half of CT than just the northwest now. And it’s already raining now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Rain just started. Let the flooding begin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, Hoth said: Are the mesos placing the warm front in a different spot from the globals? Which would one expect to perform better in this setup? Globals using synoptics like 700 fronto, while mesos using the WF for lift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rain just started. Let the flooding begin Says the guy who lives on top of a hill! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 The rates are going to get some. Like areas maybe north of pike have longer duration. It's possible near and south of pike get a break and then just monster rates for 3-4 hrs will be the main rain event. It's possible during this time that 3-5"+ falls in that 3-4 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Says the guy who lives on top of a hill! Lol I’ll probably lose 100 feet of elevation from this to erosion 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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