WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 A significant rain event looks increasingly likely as the remnants of Hurricane Ida merge with an incoming trough and rides along a warm front. It’s a juiced up nor’easter! Discuss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Actually I like the title this thread lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 She’s gonna give a very wet slap en route to her cemetery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 18z HRRR...I like that depiction. Notice how it has the heavy rain near the warm front. That's how I envision it, but of course where does the warm front end up? Look at all those cells along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z HRRR...I like that depiction. Notice how it has the heavy rain near the warm front. That's how I envision it, but of course where does the warm front end up? Look at all those cells along the front. Also has the period of wind too, especially along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Is there a consensus on timing for the 128 area . Tapering off by 10am . Have a appointment at 930am in Burlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Also has the period of wind too, especially along the coast. Those wind products are trash don't cha know? Seriously that inversion is toast on the Euro 3K and HRRR. Hoist um up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 D2 High Risk just issued... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Those wind products are trash don't cha know? Seriously that inversion is toast on the Euro 3K and HRRR. Hoist um up They are. It won't be 60+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: D2 High Risk just issued... imagine wiz if this was severe lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Looks like the last two HRRR runs. Right on WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 could even be bumped north later tonight if trends continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They are. It won't be 60+. I could see a gust at Ptown Gloucester why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Need a few bumps north to be safe here. Hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They are. It won't be 60+. You guys say this over and over then ignored it when the Euro nailed Henri. There are multiple times this has happened but of course those times are ignored. Its way inland gusts are usually wrong but I never discount it within 40 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 410 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... 21Z Update... ...Northeast... Heavy signals and strong model agreement for portions of southern PA northeastward into northern NJ and southern NY has led to the issuance of a High Risk for flooding. The latest Hi-Res guidance has really narrowed in on this corridor with 4 to 6 inches possible and locally heavier amounts near 6 to 8 inches not out of the question. HREF probs for ARI exceedance of 100 years was well over the 95th percentile for this region increasing confidence even more. Models over the last 12 hours have shifted things a bit further north, and the surrounding Moderate, Slight, and Marginal Risk areas were adjusted to account for this shift. Much of this area is still recovering from Henri and already has fairly low FFG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You guys say this over and over then ignored it when the Euro nailed Henri. There are multiple times this has happened but of course those times are ignored. Its way inland gusts are usually wrong but I never discount it within 40 miles of the coast. I'm not saying no wind, but those look way too aggressive overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not saying no wind, but those look way too aggressive overall. Certainly hope so. Just busting Ryan but he is so sensitive. He must be feeling the stress today. I mean we are staring at a possible high impact event if we gust near 50 never mind 4 to 6 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 There’s going to be a bunch of questions from the public when these strong winds rip thru the region on the backside with little to no warning or media coverage and outages last longer with crews down in LA 40-55mph inland and coast will leave a mark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s going to be a bunch of questions from the public when these strong winds rip thru the region on the backside with little to no warning or media coverage and outages last longer with crews down in LA 40-55mph inland and coast will leave a mark not to mention there's no wind advisories or warnings up by NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: not to mention there's no wind advisories or warnings up by NWS I get flooding is high importance. But they are just ignoring multi model agreement. NW winds don’t care about S flow inversions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 18z ICON even gets eastern Maine now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 to 6 lollies to 10 on the Mount? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Icon destroys SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Icon destroys SNE Map Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Map Anthony? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Maybe not destroy but Kevin will need his swimmies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe not destroy but Kevin will need his swimmies. here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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