mappy Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I know it’s the HRRRRRRR and long range, but some decent helicity values for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 https://www.weather.gov/marfc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 34 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes, most guidance had a modest chunk of the huge predicted rainfalls for PA occurring tonight. Well that is a little bit better for them. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Unless radar fills in, majority of the rain shield looks to be west of 81 I think anyone in the immediate nova/DC area expecting more than an inch are going to be highly disappointed. Maybe some isolated higher amounts but current radar depiction doesn’t look good if your rooting for a lot of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I don't like that the 00z HRRR run brings the TOR threat into our area by mid-afternoon Wednesday instead of late afternoon. Do not want kids on school buses as tornado warnings are issued. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Tornado warning on approach to Charlottesville - hopefully this ends up being it for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 You guys know how to forecast so please help me out because I got vans and trucks going back and forth from Beltsville to Frederick tomorrow including back roads near Monocacy. I need your input to get a decision finally about what to do and because of it I’m not on top of Ida. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 The cell south of Charlottesville has quite a meso on it, but that central VA radar hole is being a giant pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Just now, andyhb said: The cell south of Charlottesville has quite a meso on it, but that central VA radar hole is being a giant pain. What about that area near Beech Grove, does that look suspicious, or is it fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 The cell south of Charlottesville has quite a meso on it, but that central VA radar hole is being a giant pain.CHO really needs a radar. Hoping this stays on its course southeast of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Absolutely nuts rain right now. Cats and dogs doesn’t cover it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Absolutely nuts rain right now. Cats and dogs doesn’t cover it. Looks nasty on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Absolutely nuts rain right now. Cats and dogs doesn’t cover it. Imagine if it was 32 degrees? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Looks nasty on radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Areas affected...portions of western VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 480... Valid 010301Z - 010430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for brief tornadoes continues across Tornado Watch 480. DISCUSSION...Several cells near Rockbridge to Albemarle counties in western/central VA have intensified over the past hour or so. These cells continue to exhibit periods of weak low-level rotation as they shift north/northeast. This activity is occurring in the vicinity of a surface boundary draped across the region and within a corridor of stronger low-level instability (0-3 km MLCAPE around 100-125 m2/s2). Low-level shear is somewhat less favorable with northeast extent compared to earlier this evening, but still sufficient to support rotating cells capable of brief tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 09/01/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Warning for the city. Staying low, but looks likely to miss to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 FFW up for Charlottesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1149 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Nelson County in central Virginia... Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northwestern Albemarle County in central Virginia... East central Augusta County in western Virginia... The eastern City of Waynesboro in western Virginia... * Until 1215 AM EDT. * At 1148 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Afton, or near Waynesboro, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Crimora around 1200 AM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Afton Mountain and Greenwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3798 7882 3802 7890 3825 7883 3819 7862 TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 205DEG 25KT 3804 7884 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Warning east of Charlottesville extended BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1156 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Albemarle County in central Virginia... * Until 1230 AM EDT. * At 1156 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Charlottesville, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Albemarle County, including the following locations... Cobham, Cismont, Campbell, Boyd Tavern, Keswick, Stony Point and Shadwell. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3801 7843 3818 7836 3813 7821 3806 7826 3796 7835 TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 218DEG 21KT 3803 7838 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 FFW up for Charlottesville Pretty nuts night here. Some student apartments and buildings apparently have water in them. Think we avoided an actual touchdown though, not seeing any damage reports locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 It's been an interesting day... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 These rain rates at times are incredible Afton and Waynesboro...don't know rain totals , first year since 1988 I do not keep a gauge... makes you think how awful the rain rates must have been in Nelson with Camille in 69 - with 30+ inches in a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Tornado Watch possible for N VA/DC/MD -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1666.html Mesoscale Discussion 1666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Areas affected...northern VA into MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010419Z - 010545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong cells capable of producing brief tornadoes may spread northeast across parts of northern Virginia and western Maryland. DISCUSSION...A few persistent cells across central VA continue to show periods of low-level rotation as they track along the gradient of stronger 0-3 km MLCAPE. Forecast guidance shows this area of relatively greater instability persisting over parts of northern VA and MD. Low-level shear currently is weak downstream from WW 480 across the MCD area. However, some improvement is forecast as stronger ascent spreads over the region and the stalled surface boundary lifts northward. This could support a few stronger cells with a continued tornado threat into the overnight hours, and a downstream tornado watch is possible. ..Leitman/Edwards.. 09/01/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1225 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Central Orange County in central Virginia... Southwestern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 100 AM EDT. * At 1224 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Boswells Tavern, or 7 miles southwest of Orange, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Orange around 1240 AM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Nasons, Gordonsville, Madison Mills, Montford, Rapidan, Montpelier Station, Madison Run, Unionville and Locust Dale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Apparently some models NAM/ARW NSSL want to put the best tornado params in the Wash/Bal area around 8-11z with the initial warmfront. Basically those cells in VA move to the DC BAL metro and could cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Hail threat increasing on Radarscope with that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Hail threat increasing on Radarscope with that cell The one moving past Culpeper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: The one moving past Culpeper? SW of there by Orange... Culpepper would be next if warning were issued. But looks to slide just east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: SW of there by Orange... Culpepper would be next if warning were issued. But looks to slide just east of there Looks to be tracking through some pretty dense population in the next hour. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Topper on and sounds grave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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