aldie 22 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 So it's not going to rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Interesting to see whether SPC will add a 10% TOR contour in the upcoming day 2 outlook. There is probably just enough uncertainty in the exact area to draw a 10 to make them wait until tomorrow to better define a higher threat area, but the setup as currently progged may support greater than a 5% TOR outlook. If you're looking for TORs, you can't ask for much more in this setup than what's currently shown: a dry slot keeping us dry through a big chunk of Wednesday, allowing surface heating to maximize instability ahead of strong forcing and strengthening wind fields at the right time of day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, high risk said: Interesting to see whether SPC will add a 10% TOR contour in the upcoming day 2 outlook. There is probably just enough uncertainty in the exact area to draw a 10 to make them wait until tomorrow to better define a higher threat area, but the setup as currently progged may support greater than a 5% TOR outlook. If you're looking for TORs, you can't ask for much more in this setup than what's currently shown: a dry slot keeping us dry through a big chunk of Wednesday, allowing surface heating to maximize instability ahead of strong forcing and strengthening wind fields at the right time of day. They did it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 10% TOR 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Have seen some forecast hodographs from this and yeah, things are going to be spinning pretty easily. Outside shot of a sig tor or two given the environment. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Not really interested in flooding unless it is the 10+ inches in a few hour Elliott City variety.. Susquehanna river valley might be big.. but thats not really us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not really. It’s called having some humanity. It’s one thing to be fascinated by extreme weather. We all are. But to actually be disappointed if it doesn’t happen, to me, is just somehow not ok . The psychology doesn't make sense, but it is possible to feel both. It's like...you want no one to get hurt. But yet...you want that extreme weather too. Like when we got Snowmageddon...someone died walking in the street due to unplowed sidewalks. Did ya want that to happen? Of course not! It's awful. But were we happy with the legendary snow? Absolutely. Same with hurricanes...awesome to see powerful ones, yet awful to see the results. So the humanity feels for the victims of such and wishes no harm. But yet...something in the brain also wants the extremes for excitement too. So when that part of the brain/psyche doesn't get the extreme weather, there's disappointment. And yet you're happy nobody gets hurt. If I had a magic button I'd make it so you could have extreme yet no damage, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 ^^ and more recently than Snowmageddon, we talk about severe, but only a few weeks ago lightning struck a house in Frederick County and a firefighter was killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Euro broadly 1.5-2.5” of rain through the metro regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 oh goodie. possible flooding rains, enhanced severe risk and a 10% tornado chance? oof. I see my productivity tomorrow is going to be shit 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 But I was told it would be cloudy and dry? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, H2O said: But I was told it would be cloudy and dry? D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: But I was told it would be cloudy and dry? It really looks like this is gonna be a central PA event. The severe is a little intriguing.. but these things tend to shine WRT flooding... it is disappointing that we cant cash in on another Agnes type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Why are people focusing on the rain and flooding when we’re in a 10% TOR zone? Being socked in with rain all day will lessen our chances for TORs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I can't wait til the next big one.. I am gonna head down to the Patapsco and watch it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Kleimax said: Why are people focusing on the rain and flooding when we’re in a 10% TOR zone? Being socked in with rain all day will lessen our chances for TORs It's all contingent on us breaking out into sunshine to build surface instability. We don't do that well in these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Regardless of EJs' poo-pooing everything, make sure yall have a plan in place in case the tornado threat pans out Of course, it could all fail and we see low stratus and off/on rain all day. But... just in case. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Why are people focusing on the rain and flooding when we’re in a 10% TOR zone? Being socked in with rain all day will lessen our chances for TORs Flooding is a better bet depending on where the rain sets up, but 10% TOR is nothing to scoff at. This is a high end remnant setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Convective setups usually trend east. This one has been trending northwest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 All the Debs are out. Is it winter? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Why are people focusing on the rain and flooding when we’re in a 10% TOR zone? Being socked in with rain all day will lessen our chances for TORs But that's not what the guidance shows. There is a lot of consensus that much of the area along and southeast of an IAD-FDK line will stay mostly dry tomorrow until the convection rolls in during the mid to late afternoon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: ^^ and more recently than Snowmageddon, we talk about severe, but only a few weeks ago lightning struck a house in Frederick County and a firefighter was killed. And that's terrible...see that's what you hate to hear. Not as tragic, but still kinda bad...last month lighting struck the steeple of the church where I just became Music Director...fire coulda burned down the whole church had it not been for someone, Praise God, being there at the right time (and it being next to a fire station). So in that instance, it's like...yeah ya love the weather but when bad things happen? Ya hate that! It's a strange psychology... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, high risk said: But that's not what the guidance shows. There is a lot of consensus that much of the area along and southeast of an IAD-FDK line will stay mostly dry tomorrow until the convection rolls in during the mid to late afternoon. But a coupe inches of rain over 12 hours is so exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Yeoman said: But a coupe inches of rain over 12 hours is so exciting I've done the couple inches of rain in one hour. It wasn't fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, Yeoman said: But a coupe inches of rain over 12 hours is so exciting I'm WAY more worried about the TOR potential in the DC-Baltimore corridor than I am about flooding. That said, I think it's worth noting that while the major flooding potential is going to be in PA/WV/western MD tomorrow, there will absolutely be potential for FLASH flooding in the DC-Baltimore region. It's going to be a roughly 6 hour period late tomorrow with several bands of convection (with potential for TORs) that will have torrential rainfall. I can certainly see some localized 3-4" totals that will create major problems for the evening rush hour. Things will be worse if the warm advection rain later tonight ends up overperforming, which is always a possibility in this type of environment. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I'm supposed to be in an MRI machine late late tomorrow afternoon. Thinking maybe that's a pretty safe place to be in a twister. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 If we are talking system wide threats, I’d say a major flooding threat would be more of a threat to people’s safety. Especially in mountainous terrain where flash flooding is gonna be a real concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If we are talking system wide threats, I’d say a major flooding threat would be more of a threat to people’s safety. Especially in mountainous terrain where flash flooding is gonna be a real concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, H2O said: I've done the couple inches of rain in one hour. It wasn't fun. With TS Lee, I had somewhere in the 7" range in like three hours, after there having been 3" or something earlier in the day. Just SE of me around Belvoir, they had it even worse. It was kind of exciting, but the bailing out of the basement and the complete water damage in one bathroom and partial in one ceiling just sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro broadly 1.5-2.5” of rain through the metro regions. Yes please! I would be really happy with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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