SnowenOutThere Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Discussion/OBS, made the other tropical storm thread of the season and thought I'd make this one as well. Banter is fine after I would like to post in my own thread. Keep complaining to a minimum. Happy forecasting and lets hope Ida does not end up like every snowstorm we've tracked this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 After looking at the latest NAM run we can now pretty confidently say that a major precip event from this storm is looking more and more unlikely, so we should probably just shift to thinking about severe for this storm. Also we can always count on the northward trend within 48 hours on a storm that looks borderline for us tropical or winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Looks like I might actually see some rain finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Looks to have a broken line of supercells hit tomorrow around 7pm there is a line before that is even more scattered in nature but with these scary looking cells as well, definitely will be something bad that happens to someone tomorrow but where is still to early to tell. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Good! Don't need any more rain here. Save the precip for where it counts. (this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Good! Don't need any more rain here. Save the precip for where it counts. (this winter) Always plenty of rain to go around in “winter” 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Following is shared with Wes’ permission:Tomorrow through Thursday morning is going to be really interesting across the area as remnants of Ida move across the area. The system has some similarities with Hurricane Camille which produced a monster flash flood over Nelson County but also has enough differences that Camille is not a great analog. The similarities are that Ida remains will a have an 850 mb and surface low as it tracks across and east of the mountains. The system will be interacting with the exit region of an upper level jet streak. Strong frontogenesis will be taking place along the frontal surface. 6-8 inches of rain fell along the front well east of the mountains during Camille. The two most notable differences between the two systems is the track which was farther south across Virginia than this Ida's is forecast to be and Camille had a surface high building across to its north giving the system more easterly flow as it cam across the mountains. The heaviest rainfall will be north of the storm track along and north of the front probably across northwestern MD and southern PA though with the 2.00 PWS even DCA could end up with too much rainfall, too quickly to drain properly. Below I've attached a NAM forecast showing the forecast frontogenesis across the area. It could shift a little depending on shift in the storm track. I've also posted a NAM precipitation forecast. It tends to have a high bias but offers a glimpse of the systems rainfall potential. I wouldn't be surprised if an isolated 10" plus amount showed up somewhere over the mid Atlantic region near the mountains probably from northwest VA into Southern PA. Exactly where will depend on the storm track and meso and micro features. I used to really like forecasting these types of storms especially back in the low resolution model days when could really whip the models. Now it's not so easy. They are usually pretty good as long as they forecast the track well. South of the front in my county, higher temperatures and more instability will be present so we still could get thunderstorms with really high rainfall rates given that the PWS are forecast to be aoa 2.00" but our storms probably will be more scattered and any bands that form will be progressive keeping us in the 1-3" rainfall range. However, we may have enough shear to produce short lasting rotating storms. I'm not a severe weather expert but tomorrow afternoon I'll be watching the radar. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 RGEM is pretty similar to the 3k with higher qpf to the NW of town. But gives DC 2 inches as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 12z NAM is ugly. Dry, cloudy. Would be a complete bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z NAM is ugly. Dry, cloudy. Would be a complete bust. I'll gladly take only 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, mappy said: I'll gladly take only 3" I can never tell what the actual deal is when EJ posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z NAM is ugly. Dry, cloudy. Would be a complete bust. GFS is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I can never tell what the actual deal is when EJ posts. best to just go look for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Looks like models might be setting up a second, lesser qpf max from dc-south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 25 minutes ago, mappy said: I'll gladly take only 3" Yeah, I know a lot of people are bummed, but out here in Frederick/Washington county we have been having heavy rain almost everyday for at least a week. This could get really ugly out here for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, MDphotog said: Yeah, I know a lot of people are bummed, but out here in Frederick/Washington county we have been having heavy rain almost everyday for at least a week. This could get really ugly out here for flooding. yeah, you guys don't need 6+ of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is worse. It's a complete disaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: It's a complete disaster. look at it this way, less rain to get through before a fabulous labor day weekend coming up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, mappy said: yeah, you guys don't need 6+ of rain 21ft? Holy &@$#! There is a lot of area around the river that I don’t think has that much height to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Some of you guys are going to get more rain the rest of the week than I've seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I for one hope we get the lower end of the totals. Somebody, somewhere is facing a catastrophe if some of those rainfall amounts verify. I guess some people live in a fantasy world where they think it can rain a foot in a day in mountainous terrain and people won’t have their homes and businesses destroyed and possibly lose their life. Not cool to “hope” those things happen IMO. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I would think the Potomac is going to have one heck of a crest. Forecast is already for major flood stage through the Washington Co gauges and 26'+ at Point of Rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I for one hope we get the lower end of the totals. Somebody, somewhere is facing a catastrophe if some of those rainfall amounts verify. I guess some people live in a fantasy world where they think it can rain a foot in a day in mountainous terrain and people won’t have their homes and businesses destroyed and possibly lose their life. Not cool to “hope” those things happen IMO. It’s a decades long debate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, MDphotog said: Yeah, I know a lot of people are bummed, but out here in Frederick/Washington county we have been having heavy rain almost everyday for at least a week. This could get really ugly out here for flooding. I can attest to this. Been a similar pattern with storms dropping in from Hagerstown almost everyday and unpredictable in duration/intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: I can attest to this. Been a similar pattern with storms dropping in from Hagerstown almost everyday and unpredictable in duration/intensity. To be honest some of us direly need rain in the area. But not 4-6 inches worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 29 minutes ago, H2O said: i'm still laughing. I've been laughing for five minutes now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Hug the HREF if you’re rooting for precip. 3”+ for everyone north of EZF more or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hug the HREF if you’re rooting for precip. 3”+ for everyone north of EZF more or less. Any chance you looked at the max by accident? That image matches your description. The mean isn't that aggressive for DC and areas right along I-95: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s a decades long debate Not really. It’s called having some humanity. It’s one thing to be fascinated by extreme weather. We all are. But to actually be disappointed if it doesn’t happen, to me, is just somehow not ok . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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