Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Major Hurricane Larry


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, Prospero said:

Oh the frustration of living in the year 2021 when global 3D radar is still yet to be developed. Maybe in ten years we'll watch live radar anywhere on the planet.

We will have  global radar but the Hurricane Hunters will be flying the same planes with the same broken equipment.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

SHIPS annular index is 45, about halfway between not annular and annular.  It sort of looks annular.  Better informed people, annular or not?

Eric Webb calls it quasi-annular, but there are indications that increasing SW shear (shown more by ECMWF than GFS) and SSTs warming to 28.5-29C by tonight and tomorrow may make it hard for Larry to maintain annular status.
 

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z UKMET: 915 mb just 100 miles east of Bermuda!
 

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2021 0 19.0N 49.5W 933 106
0000UTC 06.09.2021 12 20.5N 51.4W 942 95
1200UTC 06.09.2021 24 21.7N 53.2W 931 106
0000UTC 07.09.2021 36 22.8N 54.6W 929 110
1200UTC 07.09.2021 48 24.1N 56.3W 919 113
0000UTC 08.09.2021 60 25.8N 57.7W 916 116
1200UTC 08.09.2021 72 27.5N 59.7W 918 118
0000UTC 09.09.2021 84 29.5N 61.7W 918 114
1200UTC 09.09.2021 96 31.9N 63.3W 915 116
0000UTC 10.09.2021 108 35.7N 63.3W 925 105
1200UTC 10.09.2021 120 40.8N 61.2W 929 105
0000UTC 11.09.2021 132 46.5N 55.5W 943 85
1200UTC 11.09.2021 144 52.3N 48.3W 971 46

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: 915 mb just 100 miles east of Bermuda!
 

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2021 0 19.0N 49.5W 933 106
0000UTC 06.09.2021 12 20.5N 51.4W 942 95
1200UTC 06.09.2021 24 21.7N 53.2W 931 106
0000UTC 07.09.2021 36 22.8N 54.6W 929 110
1200UTC 07.09.2021 48 24.1N 56.3W 919 113
0000UTC 08.09.2021 60 25.8N 57.7W 916 116
1200UTC 08.09.2021 72 27.5N 59.7W 918 118
0000UTC 09.09.2021 84 29.5N 61.7W 918 114
1200UTC 09.09.2021 96 31.9N 63.3W 915 116
0000UTC 10.09.2021 108 35.7N 63.3W 925 105
1200UTC 10.09.2021 120 40.8N 61.2W 929 105
0000UTC 11.09.2021 132 46.5N 55.5W 943 85
1200UTC 11.09.2021 144 52.3N 48.3W 971 46

If it does hit Bermuda (I count eyewall, myself, especially for a small island, as a hit), it isn't a fish.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Pretty solid model agreement that the core should miss Bermuda to the east, seems the westward shifts from early on have stopped/even reversed a bit. Good chance they get TS-force winds out of the north as it passes by, though.

a few GEFS and EPS members moved west over Bermuda at 18z...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Proud to say that I’m not a snob for sexy Hurricanes, like Ida, and love a big ole fat truck tire like Larry. Last ERC gave us the biggest eye in the Atlantic in recent memory! Storm is a beast, also ACE is going to be through the roof with this one

gitdone.thumb.jpg.7d901ab6a09d996f20a364c73d6d5a05.jpg

Larry the Storm Guy

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Proud to say that I’m not a snob for sexy Hurricanes, like Ida, and love a big ole fat truck tire like Larry. Last ERC gave us the biggest eye in the Atlantic in recent memory! Storm is a beast, also ACE is going to be through the roof with this one

Well according to One person it’s in Poor shape 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Larry has a huge circulation. But its new massive eyewall might be moving just fast enough with respect to oceanic heat content to do something special over night, perhaps not seen in the Atlantic since Isabel: A giant annular intensifying major hurricane. Category four intensity seems in reach as the presentation continues to improve. Could it make a run at Isabel's lofty status as the most powerful annular 'cane? If it can maintain forward motion enough to avoid its own upwelling we could definitely see some significant intensification here. But Isabel is the rarest of the rare, so probably no...7c48518c7d8efd432a0d5aac643e643a.gif

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Rare and pretty cane18a510e196ac255dd0ac7f37adc11da9.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

That reminded me of a "rare and different tune", Terrapin Station. Then it hit me that if Larry was cruising along to a song, it would be that song -- growing, spinning, never ending....

While crickets and cicadas sing
a rare and different tune
Terrapin station
In the shadow of the moon, terrapin station
And I know we'll be there soon, terrapin
I can't figure out, terrapin
if it's the end or beginning, terrapin
But the train's put it's brakes on, terrapin
And the whistle is screaming, terrapin
 

 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That reminded me of a "rare and different tune", Terrapin Station. Then it hit me that if Larry was cruising along to a song, it would be that song -- growing, spinning, never ending....
While crickets and cicadas sing
a rare and different tune
Terrapin station
In the shadow of the moon, terrapin station
And I know we'll be there soon, terrapin
I can't figure out, terrapin
if it's the end or beginning, terrapin
But the train's put it's brakes on, terrapin
And the whistle is screaming, terrapin
   
You welcome!

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...