Wannabehippie Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I am very surprised that Larry hasn't already been upgraded to a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Still not a hurricane as per NHC. 8:00 PM CVT Wed Sep 1 Location: 12.5°N 29.4°W Moving: W at 22 mph Min pressure: 991 mb Max sustained: 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 hours ago, jconsor said: Great stuff. Actually, I happened to have studied eastern Atlantic WSW movers, myself, a while back and saved this list of the 12 that made US landfall (all but Carol of 1953 hit as a hurricane)(# in parentheses is days from African coast to US landfall): - #6 of 1893 (GA/SC) (14) - #4 of 1928 (FL)(11) - #4 of 1947 (FL, LA) (14) - Able of 1952 (SC) (13) - Carol of 1953 (ME grazed) (11) - Donna of 1960 (FL, NC, New England) (12) - Dora of 1964 (FL) (13) - Allen of 1980 (TX) (12) - Hugo of 1989 (SC) (12) - Fran of 1996 (NC) (14) - Isabel of 2003 (NC) (15) - Ivan of 2004 (AL/FL) (16) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Icon brings it further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 0Z UKMET: down to 927 mb at the end pf the run! TROPICAL STORM LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 29.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 02.09.2021 0 12.5N 29.8W 1002 41 1200UTC 02.09.2021 12 13.0N 34.0W 996 45 0000UTC 03.09.2021 24 13.6N 37.5W 993 44 1200UTC 03.09.2021 36 14.2N 41.0W 989 49 0000UTC 04.09.2021 48 15.3N 44.1W 981 54 1200UTC 04.09.2021 60 16.7N 47.0W 974 65 0000UTC 05.09.2021 72 18.1N 49.5W 971 62 1200UTC 05.09.2021 84 19.8N 51.8W 972 64 0000UTC 06.09.2021 96 21.4N 53.5W 969 67 1200UTC 06.09.2021 108 22.8N 55.1W 965 64 0000UTC 07.09.2021 120 24.0N 56.5W 952 81 1200UTC 07.09.2021 132 25.3N 57.9W 939 101 0000UTC 08.09.2021 144 26.8N 58.5W 927 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Hurricane as of the 0500 AST advisory: HURRICANE LARRY (noaa.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 18 hours ago, jconsor said: Interesting stat- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 19 hours ago, jconsor said: Has Larry moved south of due west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 46 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Has Larry moved south of due west? So far NHC has had it going due west the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Newest GEFS suite seems problematic too many factors at play to say for sure that it's fishing. Henri also moved SW all of the big ones trek southwestward is indicative of other factors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: Has Larry moved south of due west? Larry has not moved S of due W between any two reference points. It moved due west between 8 AM and 2 PM yesterday and otherwise N of due W to WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said: So far NHC has had it going due west the whole time. 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Larry has not moved S of due W between any two reference points. It moved due west between 8 AM and 2 PM yesterday and otherwise N of due W to WNW. Ah okay, so it's basically academic.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 12Z UKMET: down to 922 mb at the end! But again, very low US threat. Bermuda needs to watch closely. HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 33.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.09.2021 0 13.3N 33.3W 993 48 0000UTC 03.09.2021 12 13.8N 37.2W 988 50 1200UTC 03.09.2021 24 14.4N 40.5W 983 52 0000UTC 04.09.2021 36 15.3N 43.6W 977 62 1200UTC 04.09.2021 48 16.3N 46.2W 975 65 0000UTC 05.09.2021 60 17.6N 48.3W 971 65 1200UTC 05.09.2021 72 19.2N 50.6W 969 68 0000UTC 06.09.2021 84 20.9N 52.5W 960 77 1200UTC 06.09.2021 96 22.2N 54.4W 949 81 0000UTC 07.09.2021 108 23.6N 56.1W 941 97 1200UTC 07.09.2021 120 25.0N 57.8W 930 106 0000UTC 08.09.2021 132 27.3N 59.1W 922 107 1200UTC 08.09.2021 144 29.9N 60.0W 922 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 12z euro has an Igor look to it. Avalon is due for a tropical trouncing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 12Z EPS has many more members vs prior runs hitting or grazing E New England or Canada vs the 0Z: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Gfs is west again with Larry but still a fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is west again with Larry but still a fish Not for Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Larry the Fish Larry the Fish is an anglerfish who is a character in The Animal Show. He appeared in the episode "Fish" where he tells Stinky the Skunk and Jake the Polar Bear all about fish. Stinky named most of the possible fish that Larry states exist until it came to the part where Stinky asks him if there was a "skunkfish" to which Larry states that there aren't any. By the end of the episode, Stinky dresses up in scuba gear and passes himself off as a skunkfish in order to make Larry feel better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 18z euro ens continue the trend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, jets said: 18z euro ens continue the trend! Alot are further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 Well just No to this trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 0Z UKMET is again down to 922-3 mb and passes only 150 miles east of Bermuda then: HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 36.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.09.2021 0 13.9N 36.8W 988 50 1200UTC 03.09.2021 12 14.5N 40.3W 986 49 0000UTC 04.09.2021 24 15.5N 43.1W 983 54 1200UTC 04.09.2021 36 16.6N 45.8W 979 60 0000UTC 05.09.2021 48 18.0N 47.8W 972 64 1200UTC 05.09.2021 60 19.4N 49.9W 971 66 0000UTC 06.09.2021 72 20.8N 52.0W 961 72 1200UTC 06.09.2021 84 22.0N 53.8W 950 84 0000UTC 07.09.2021 96 23.3N 55.5W 936 100 1200UTC 07.09.2021 108 25.2N 57.6W 933 97 0000UTC 08.09.2021 120 27.2N 59.5W 927 103 1200UTC 08.09.2021 132 29.5N 61.4W 922 112 0000UTC 09.09.2021 144 32.5N 62.5W 923 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 We gonna west shift all the way to Texas? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 Florence vibes I swearSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 Larry looks healthy today. Good convective bursting and a cirrus covered eye that is notably larger than yesterday (Thursday) at this time. Should be a major hurricane over night or on Saturday. Time to pump up the ACE.I still feel a bit uneasy about Bermuda. This may still be a strong hurricane that just misses to the east. But a little stronger Azores ridging could get the island into the core. We've still got the weekend to iron out modeling and any potential downstream impacts there.Edit: I originally typed Friday above but in my head I was thinking Saturday for major hurricane status, if not over night, though certainly that wouldn't be impossible by the 11 AST package if Larry continues to improve structurally over the next six hours. I digress, I originally meant Saturday. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 12Z UKMET: strongest yet (920mb!!) 250 miles E of Bermuda: HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 40.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2021 0 14.5N 40.1W 982 55 0000UTC 04.09.2021 12 15.5N 42.7W 981 58 1200UTC 04.09.2021 24 16.7N 45.4W 982 55 0000UTC 05.09.2021 36 17.8N 47.6W 980 59 1200UTC 05.09.2021 48 19.4N 49.7W 976 63 0000UTC 06.09.2021 60 21.1N 51.5W 970 67 1200UTC 06.09.2021 72 22.4N 53.5W 960 73 0000UTC 07.09.2021 84 23.6N 55.1W 949 88 1200UTC 07.09.2021 96 25.0N 56.9W 946 94 0000UTC 08.09.2021 108 26.6N 58.3W 928 105 1200UTC 08.09.2021 120 28.8N 59.7W 927 105 0000UTC 09.09.2021 132 31.4N 60.7W 920 110 1200UTC 09.09.2021 144 34.4N 61.1W 922 107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 Sunset over what is likely to be a major hurricane by morning. A large eye is clearing out as the Sun slips over the horizon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 Larry’s taking off this evening. Nice blowup of convection in the inner core and a warming eye. Outflow is incredible in all sectors. It looks to me like some mid level dry sir has been hampering the eyewall from closing off and this convection will likely do the trick in mixing that out. This storm will be a beast over the next couple of days, will be fun to watch evolve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now