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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wrote a final paper for my post graduate course in Natural Resource Mgmt on forest ecology and hurricanes. Amazing destruction in 38

Screenshot_20210831-103033_Drive.jpg

Having seen (and helped to manage) many thousands of acres of Rangeley-area forest established by 1938, it's odd to see maps showing no damage east of Coos County - undoubtedly an artifact of no observations.

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Having seen (and helped to manage) many thousands of acres of Rangeley-area forest established by 1938, it's odd to see maps showing no damage east of Coos County - undoubtedly an artifact of no observations.

Agreed....you can tell anyway just by looking to the south in southern Oxford county...clearly there is big damage there. It wouldn't just stop like that...lack of obs is the culprit.

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18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Having seen (and helped to manage) many thousands of acres of Rangeley-area forest established by 1938, it's odd to see maps showing no damage east of Coos County - undoubtedly an artifact of no observations.

Yea no report but I do have somewhere a Maine lumber down in 38 reference 

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22 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Having seen (and helped to manage) many thousands of acres of Rangeley-area forest established by 1938, it's odd to see maps showing no damage east of Coos County - undoubtedly an artifact of no observations.

Northern Kraft Paper Mill  Howland Maine from 38 cleanup

1938-hurricane-wood.jpg

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You can see the suggestion of ET completion across this NAM progression of charts.  

starts off as a paltry 1001 low down there and rides up in latitude and then encounters this frontal drape.. suddenly it deepens to 995 mb and takes on frontal tapestry in a more coherent form.   This is Nor'easter folks.. It has a pWAT advantage due to toting along some legacy there, but it's definitely a Nor'easter in the NAM. 

Not a particularly deep one, either - low pressure.   So I wouldn't hold out for much wind in that solution, N-W of the low track....unless you're at or above 2500' el

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m Curious if that’s where this is heading though??  Very Interesting. 

It could very well be. I think this is the best signal for a big rain event I’ve seen all year, and depending on where the warm front is, we could see an overproducer because the setup favors highly efficient rainfall. 

It’s just still a close call to me where the axis of heaviest rain ends up. PA is a lock to me, but for SNE, while CT is most favored, a shift N or S is the difference between a major event or something even higher end.

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