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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Carol was smaller than '38 too...it was more tropical and had an intact eyewall at landfall whereas the '38 storm was going extratropical with baroclinic assist....which why the worst winds in 1938 were over eastern MA/E CT/RI even though the center actually tracked over western CT and western MA near the NY border.

Did not know that about the worst winds... Wonder if maybe it could be partially related to the density of reliable observations? The tree damage was absolutely catastrophic here east of the river.

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6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Did not know that about the worst winds... Wonder if maybe it could be partially related to the density of reliable observations? The tree damage was absolutely catastrophic here east of the river.

Well even west of ORH got in on the wind core...so I should probably say "central MA" too...so places like Palmer/Ware would have been in it....but typically the worst winds on a more tropical system would have been over the CT river but in this case it was over central/east-central MA and E CT/RI.

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5 minutes ago, radarman said:

Did not know that about the worst winds... Wonder if maybe it could be partially related to the density of reliable observations? The tree damage was absolutely catastrophic here east of the river.

I wonder if the depiction of worst winds well to the east of the 38 center passage are based on the absurd, terrain enhanced gust to 186 on top of Blue Hill. From copious historical evidence and reports, 38's most extreme winds (and coastal storm surges) were in a swath from about the CT River to the ORH area and northward into central New Hampshire where entire pine forests were flattened. Not to say it didn't blow hard in eastern MA, but accounts, including personal ones from my relatives, do not paint nearly as an extreme picture as those in the aforementioned areas.

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This lead frontal axis that's stalled along the south coast .. might be 'sorta' telling.

The models may be over doing it on the position of that front.   The track of the transitioning low is going to run ~ along that feature.  Stronger, a little north ... weaker, where ever the front is at the time it ripples through. 

Just using the various free products to the public off the web ...the models look like they want this front to press S more.  However, I'm not seeing a huge momentum actually happening right now.   I'm interesting in if the models (12z et al ) may adjust N some as 'detection' materializes less inhibition in the lead environment if/when the front is in fact positioned farther N.

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12 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

I wonder if the depiction of worst winds well to the east of the 38 center passage are based on the absurd, terrain enhanced gust to 186 on top of Blue Hill. From copious historical evidence and reports, 38's most extreme winds (and coastal storm surges) were in a swath from about the CT River to the ORH area and northward into central New Hampshire where entire pine forests were flattened. Not to say it didn't blow hard in eastern MA, but accounts, including personal ones from my relatives, do not paint nearly as an extreme picture as those in the aforementioned areas.

This image is from the harvard forest archives...the max damage definitely is a little west of, say, BOS, but it is focused over E CT/RI/C MA/E-central MA. It seems to taper some back near the CT river in MA (but not in NH)

 

 

 

1938_damage.jpg

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8 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

I wonder if the depiction of worst winds well to the east of the 38 center passage are based on the absurd, terrain enhanced gust to 186 on top of Blue Hill. From copious historical evidence and reports, 38's most extreme winds (and coastal storm surges) were in a swath from about the CT River to the ORH area and northward into central New Hampshire where entire pine forests were flattened. Not to say it didn't blow hard in eastern MA, but accounts, including personal ones from my relatives, do not paint nearly as an extreme picture as those in the aforementioned areas.

Thanks.  As you mention the Quabbin area took a tremendous hit.  Vast swaths laid flat.  There is a museum/visitor center at the Harvard Forest in Petersham where a lot of this is well documented.  It totally changed the characteristic of the woods.

Closer to the river itself may not have experienced the worst, possibly due to the expanding ET wind field as was mentioned, avoidance of the RFQ, and maybe with the usual trouble mixing down winds.  But the surge related flooding was very bad, second only to the great 1936 flood (which is in a league of its own) just 2 years prior.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This image is from the harvard forest archives...

yeah... Ninja'd me there... It's a cool place to visit actually.  They have these depictions over time all created as scenes mad of snipped tin, with thousands of little leaves.  It's hard to describe but super cool.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a pretty cool image, but it's modeled, so I try and stay with empirical obs. Here's another from Harvard....it shows damage by town...obviously there's some gaps in this analysis

I've read in some of the town history stuff here saying there were so many downed trees they just started putting them into Canabie Lake. There's been some salvage efforts over the years for pulling out some of the wood.

We're also alot more forested now than '38. 

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1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

I've read in some of the town history stuff here saying there were so many downed trees they just started putting them into Canabie Lake. There's been some salvage efforts over the years for pulling out some of the wood

Those images showing the monads basically leveled probably indicative of strong winds just east of center too.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a pretty cool image, but it's modeled, so I try and stay with empirical obs. Here's another from Harvard....it shows damage by town...obviously there's some gaps in this analysis

 

 

1938_damage2.jpg

I wrote a final paper for my post graduate course in Natural Resource Mgmt on forest ecology and hurricanes. Amazing destruction in 38

Screenshot_20210831-103033_Drive.jpg

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