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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Probably downtown.  It’s not like they had airports in 1915.

Lol, true

but...there are other reasons humanity can and do stupidly place official thermometer houses/ob sites where they do - it doesn't have to be airports per se. 

Frankly, I'm not sure why - anywhere for that matter - these temperatures have to be out around those civility escapes. 

Obviously more usefulness in climate science.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We are not talking about MBY. I am talking about where official records are kept . There’s a big difference.  I thought that was clear 

Cept the charts are for Mansfield a stones throw from you.

Cause nobody likes me, everybody hates me
They want me to go eat some worms (I hope you offended)
And drag my name through the mud, through the dirt
But I'ma make you eat your words (I hope you offended)
You can try to hold me down, but you better let me up
'Cause you're only gonna make things worse (I hope you offended)
'Cause I swear when I get up, I'm never gonna let up
Till everybody eats my turds

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1 hour ago, Supernovice said:

Edit: Quoted the wrong post

Tip--The question on my mind... as a fan of your Hadley cell observations etc for many yrs....do we see a snap-back mid/late Oct- snowbomb?  The +2sd anomalies have to be offset somewhere/ at some point right? I know that's an oversimplification but?

To be fair ... I am not sure that it is mine, per se.  But I get what you meant...  I am not sure which came first, my bloviating, or whether reviewed/officiated science on the matter was just happening all along unwittingly to myself - probably the latter.  With millions of minds looking, pensively peering over environmental facets these days ...very few novel ideas are really out there. It's more of race to be published first, while half their reader's are all going, "Yeah, we know/knew this 10 years ago... "  But the point is, it's saturating content everywhere. Most respectable enthusiasts, to normal climate and Met folk alike are aware.  

Although personally, I don't know, nor have read any formal "transition season"-attribution studies.  Like the fact that snow in October was perhaps a 1::15 year ( Will ? ) return rate prior to 2000.... since then? IF just taking these 21 years, it's like 1:2

That's either a shift in climate...or one heluva repeating fractal in the vagarious noise of climate. 

K, so - having said all that, re the 2nd bold sentence.  The short answer, no - there is no requirement in that sense?   +2 is based on a climatology that spans previous decades, prior to the present and/or future climate, which are by all evidentiary empirical accounts and mathematics after those facts, sloped up ... means that we are inherently at risk using past climate to assume anything like a 'balancing' - for one, we don't know where the base-line is in a moving foundation. 

We have been getting the autumn snow oddities.  We have also been getting weird, deep May CAA events too.  These prolapse and lapsing cold season phenomenon - I suspect - can be attributed to HC expanding.   This expansion then "triggers" velocity soaking in the mid latitudes earlier than normal - and with faster base-line wind velocities in the middle Troposphere, that is going to ( by geo-physics ) materialize coherent R-wave distribution ... This precedes patterns that are capable of delivering cold early, and late, relative to a slow hemisphere.  

This than has been doing weird aspects to the mid winter months two - DJF.   But that's another topic.

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting you say this. Your month so far

Screenshot_20210913-121018_Chrome.jpg

Ha, days of 60s and 70s, nights of 50s.  That’s well played.  Tip o’ cap :lol:.  Looks like Mansfield touches the Tolland line too.

ORH looks like 70s and 50s so far too... -0.7 on the month.  Charts may not be as wrong as some make it seem.

Untitled.jpg.0e4c2341ce11f6991dc9c7d9d01f1732.jpg

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, days of 60s and 70s, nights of 50s.  That’s well played.  Tip o’ cap :lol:.  Looks like Mansfield touches the Tolland line too.

ORH looks like 70s and 50s so far too... -0.7 on the month.  Charts may not be as wrong as some make it seem.

Untitled.jpg.0e4c2341ce11f6991dc9c7d9d01f1732.jpg

The models did fairly well overall with the theme of the first 10-12 days of the month....I recall saying they showed "Seasonably cool" (basically near to slightly below avg).

Definitely going to turn up the torch knob though for the 2nd half of the month.

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The models did fairly well overall with the theme of the first 10-12 days of the month....I recall saying they showed "Seasonably cool" (basically near to slightly below avg).

Definitely going to turn up the torch knob though for the 2nd half of the month.

The 2nd half torch was signaled well by eps 10 days ago or more.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Define torch in Mid September before that guy expects 90 in his hood. Look at the heights,seems like upper 70s low 80s are the highs.

Yeah +10 to +15 on the highs would be torch. So mostly in the 70s and 80s since avg highs are in the 70-75 range mid-Sept and mid/upper 60s by late Sept.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Missed you at the beach.  No balls? Swimmed in the lake yesterday and will be there shortly. How many times have you swimmed since Sept 1st big guy

 

I went last weekend up at Stinson Lake in NH actually.  I mean you're kinda proving my point of closing pools too early, because you're like swimming every day bro.  Don't you look out at your warm pool on nice days like today and get a little sad? 

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Define torch in Mid September before that guy expects 90 in his hood. Look at the heights,seems like upper 70s low 80s are the highs.

5+ AN.  For winter probably 10+.    So by now upper 70s and higher.   People freaking out by lingering summer.   This is a common occurrence!   If it’s in the 80s thanksgiving I’ll worry more but  honestly this weather means nothing regarding winter.

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11 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I went last weekend up at Stinson Lake in NH actually.  I mean you're kinda proving my point of closing pools too early, because you're like swimming every day bro.  Don't you look out at your warm pool on nice days like today and get a little sad? 

Maybe he’s swimming in the rainwater in the pool cover? That must be very warm 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To be fair ... I am not sure that it is mine, per se.  But I get what you meant...  I am not sure which came first, my bloviating, or whether reviewed/officiated science on the matter was just happening all along unwittingly to myself - probably the latter.  With millions of minds looking, pensively peering over environmental facets these days ...very few novel ideas are really out there. It's more of race to be published first, while half their reader's are all going, "Yeah, we know/knew this 10 years ago... "  But the point is, it's saturating content everywhere. Most respectable enthusiasts, to normal climate and Met folk alike are aware.  

 

- Thanks.  I guess I'm really thinking about wrong...interesting...will be watching for more airline ground speed records incoming regardless.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Exactly . Too cold 

The first week looks pretty good.  Shocking a model Day 7-14 prog was off.

BDL and ORH both below normal to date, now a warm period coming.  Looks like the EURO from a week ago had warmth around the 15th but was a bit too muted.

I still don’t get what you guys are trying to prove with the attack on model data.

 

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3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

I went last weekend up at Stinson Lake in NH actually.  I mean you're kinda proving my point of closing pools too early, because you're like swimming every day bro.  Don't you look out at your warm pool on nice days like today and get a little sad? 

Yea those 50 degree nights are perfect for shallow pools versus huge lakes and oceans. Learn somethings.  

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The first week looks pretty good.  Shocking a model Day 7-14 prog was off.

BDL and ORH both below normal to date, now a warm period coming.  Looks like the EURO from a week ago had warmth around the 15th but was a bit too muted.

I still don’t get what you guys are trying to prove with the attack on model data.

 

He still hasn't hit 80 lol. Bet he enjoyed the COC today.

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