Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Meanwhile, at the surface, remnant low level circulation of Ida likely tracks along or just off the south coast of New England, placing CT/RI/MA on the cool side of the storm. If this storm track verifies, a chilly windswept rain with gusty NE winds would materialize, as models suggest a robust 45 kt low level NE jet north of the surface low. This may result in a low risk of wind gusts strong enough for minor tree damage given fully leaved trees. Furthermore, this track would place the cool sector over CT/RI/MA, shunting any severe weather/tornado threat offshore. Although, still 2-3 days away, so mesoscale details can change between now and then, specifically the axis of heaviest rainfall. New 12z GFS storm total rainfall has a swath of 2-4" across CT/RI and south of the MA Pike. New 12z GEFS supports this idea with 4+ inch probs across the same area. 12z EC farther north with axis of heaviest rain across northern CT into Greater Boston area, with amounts up to 6 inches. 12z EC ensembles support this heavy rain signal, with low risk of 4+ inch probs across CT into RI. Thus, this heavy rain signal combined with current flows of small rivers and streams much above normal /not much capacity remaining for additional rainfall/, further increases the flood threat. This combined with 1) remnants of Ida yielding PWATs 2+ inches, strong mid level Fgen in response to confluent flow over New England and an anomalous 140kt jet streak over southeast Quebec (+2 SD), with RRQ over CT/RI/MA, enhancing QG forcing for ascent. All of these parameters are supportive of a flood watch for CT/RI and southeast MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. This flood watch may need to be expanded northward tonight or Tue, if forecast confidence increase on heavy rain axis shifting northward. We will have to watch closely where the confluent zone sets up, as there will be a sharp north to south qpf gradient, yielding big qpf bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: It'll never snow again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: You guys practicing for winter? Its north, Its south, Its east, Its west................. For you and me, it's wagon south, just like it's been since last December (or October). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 NAM has Ginxy all suited up and ready to save the 5 ppl living in SW RI. What a SOS for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Windy For coast. But it's not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM has Ginxy all suited up and ready to save the 5 ppl living in SW RI. What a SOS for the region. 176,649 2020 Census. Scooter has never been there. Only know 3 places in New England, Boston, Cape, Lakes region. If that ain't a typical AEMATT person.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 176,649 2020 Census. Scooter has never been there. Only know 3 places in New England Boston Cape Lakes region. If that ain't a typical EMATT person.... So Sensy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: NAM has Ginxy all suited up and ready to save the 5 ppl living in SW RI. What a SOS for the region. He'll dive in to save Taylor Swift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Another nudge south on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Another nudge south on gfs. Was there ever one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Was there ever one? Let’s keep it going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Let’s keep it going. You thinking no rain SNE? 18 z Euro likely north again like NAm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You thinking no rain SNE? 18 z Euro likely north again like NAm I hope not. If it’s nuisance stuff I’d rather smoke cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Another nudge south on gfs. I think this is a futile attempt to will this south. I don’t see how it misses SNE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s keep it going. boo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I hope not. If it’s nuisance stuff I’d rather smoke cirrus. So you thinking wholething is a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So you thinking wholething is a miss? I didn’t say that. I said if it’s 1-2” I’d rather not deal with nuisance shit. A wasted day on a pedestrian event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I didn’t say that. I said if it’s 1-2” I’d rather not deal with nuisance shit. A wasted day on a pedestrian event. How much danger is there of north trend like Shabbs thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 All I wanted was a Pepsi …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Euro definitely farther north than gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 That run went wild. Wraps up last minute for more heavy rain and strong winds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That run went wild. Wraps up last minute for more heavy rain and strong winds here. still have the widespread 4-7 inches for SNE? My son's bday is on Thursday and he wants to go for a bday hike, he may have to settle for a wild experience in our pool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: still have the widespread 4-7 inches for SNE? My son's bday is on Thursday and he wants to go for a bday hike, he may have to settle for a wild experience in our pool... Pretty much. Maybe 3-6? Bordering from advisory to warning event. Also soaks the central NH chickens. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 18z euro also gets a little feisty with the wind gusts Thursday AM. Probably won't come to fruition, but it could be more interesting than Henri was here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Those that don’t think rains are coming. They are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said: 18z euro also gets a little feisty with the wind gusts Thursday AM. Probably won't come to fruition, but it could be more interesting than Henri was here. There’s going to be good winds all across SNE. What was missing in Henri was a HP to the north creating a gradient. We have that now. This could cause problems over the entire area. The question is.. are they 30-40 inland or are they 40-55? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s going to be good winds all across SNE. What was missing in Henri was a HP to the north creating a gradient. We have that now. This could cause problems over the entire area. The question is.. are they 30-40 inland or are they 40-55? Inland won’t have winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inland won’t have winds. You know need any wind to wreak havoc to the CT power grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inland won’t have winds. Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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