September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

CT could be booming.  

MA looks great 

[ORH_wxman]

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

There will be some warm days in the extended…especially down there. But the heat loses its potency this time of year with the lower sun angle. We need to be pushing records toward the equinox for it to be really uncomfortable for me that time of year.

It’s kind of like getting a big cold outbreak in mid-March. If your high temp is like 24F, it’s cold but it just doesn’t match the bite it would a month earlier with the increasing sun angle. You get Tip’s warm car seats even though the actual pattern might resemble January or early February. 

I say it most years, but I love the torch patterns from about mid-September to late October. Just give me one really good cold shot in there to kill the bugs but otherwise, bring on the 70s/low 80s. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

9 hours ago, Supernovice said:

5k for heater and install… I have two large propane tanks- those are free if you sign a contract with a gas co. Those are like $750 to refill. Usually do that twice, this yr 3 times. I’ve figured it heats mine (about 25k gallons) about two degrees per hour. I can’t recommend it enough tbh. This is my 2nd yr with it.

My neighbor put in an electric same time as me and he has to keep it running thurs- sun for weekend activities which I would imagine gets pricey.

 

 

I have about the same. I have a 400,000 btu heater. I own my tanks. I have 2, 150 gallon tanks. I fill up maybe 4 times a year but I also have a fireplace insert. I get heating price for the gas which generally runs around $1.80 a gallon. I spend around $1800 a year for gas. With the heater we use the pool from early May into October.

Heater was $1800 and I installed it myself. I bought my tanks. Cost of the install, final heater connection and permit was $2000. If you have natural gas it’s much cheaper to install. And natural gas cost less than half of propane on a btu basis.

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS floods just west

[Spanks45]

44.1⁰ this morning....feels like fall, at least for a day or 2

[moneypitmike]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

MA looks great 

mid-atlantic?

[BrianW]

28 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I have about the same. I have a 400,000 btu heater. I own my tanks. I have 2, 150 gallon tanks. I fill up maybe 4 times a year but I also have a fireplace insert. I get heating price for the gas which generally runs around $1.80 a gallon. I spend around $1800 a year for gas. With the heater we use the pool from early May into October.

Heater was $1800 and I installed it myself. I bought my tanks. Cost of the install, final heater connection and permit was $2000. If you have natural gas it’s much cheaper to install. And natural gas cost less than half of propane on a btu basis.

$1800 a year on gas for just the pool heater?

My buddy owns a pool company and he said they have insanely efficient inverter driven pool heat pumps now. They operate at a coefficient of performance (cop) of 14. That's an effective efficiency of 1400%. For every 1kw used your sending 14kw into the pool. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

MA looks great 

3K NAM hits central MA a bit, but I think that sags south

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

3K NAM hits central MA a bit, but I think that sags south

D batteries in tube socks?

[WeatherWilly]

3 straight days of near 70 degree dews next week. Looks cool to end the month but Summer always seems to win over the long range forecasts.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of like getting a big cold outbreak in mid-March. If your high temp is like 24F, it’s cold but it just doesn’t match the bite it would a month earlier with the increasing sun angle. You get Tip’s warm car seats even though the actual pattern might resemble January or early February. 

I say it most years, but I love the torch patterns from about mid-September to late October. Just give me one really good cold shot in there to kill the bugs but otherwise, bring on the 70s/low 80s. 

A phenomenon that actually begins on Feb 10 every year  ...haha, but yeah.

I was thinking about all this back-broke this, and seasonal transition that, ...while running typical Saturday morning towny errands. There was a kind of unmistakable 'crisp' to the morning zephyrs passing through the partially opened windows. Dew still clinging to rear window as the sun steeply sloped, shattered through their little cool water droplet prisms.  

If that were all there was ... the back was surely broken. 

Longer op-ed: It's really kind of hard to gauge where we are in the seasonal transition monitoring for me. My observation is that we are split during mid month, with both seasonal migration evident, simultaneously ..with positive non-hydrostatic heights and anomalies pervasively lingering everywhere S of the 50th parallel. 

I see those two concurrent aspect going on.

Looking at the EPS mean for D6:   That is a split continent. The activation of the polar westerlies is clearly presented, with autumn along and quite coherently orienting N of southern Canada.  Immediately south of those ~ latitudes, those heights are much much more consistent with ongoing summer - and those heights are anchored by the Global HC shit unfortunately... 

Now... the proximity of the activated polar westerlies near by will be mean episodic backside confluence ..sending shallow pressure perturbations S.  As we know, our geologic curse means that air masses are physically drawn into the area - if given any plausible reason to do so, models will bust and the mass will do so exceeding all expectations. Just a matter of how much or little in the latter sense. So it's not a clean heat signal - these perturbations will be sending low level 925 mb pulses of abrupt air.. etc. 

But it gets into relativity ...those are irrelevant in describing the hemisphere; but they are entirely relevant to this geographic region.  So, those that 'want' the back broken ...win by virtue feeling like it is, when in the larger scope, the Hemisphere may as well be mid July with 20C 850 plumes and 588 to 594 non-hydrostatic height waves rollin' east to merge with WAR like that.   Not sure who wins LOL

This seems to point to a compression/gradient look trying to establish, too. That westerly jet pushing south against static positive anomalies everywhere between the Iberian peninsula Japan ...i.e., the whole world, is going to create some fantastic autumn jet velocities as this heads deeper into October.    

[512high]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

A phenomenon that actually begins on Feb 10 every year  ...haha, but yeah.

I was thinking about all this back-broke this, and seasonal transition that, ...while running typical Saturday morning towny errands. There was a kind of unmistakable 'crisp' to the morning zephyrs passing through the partially opened windows. Dew still clinging to rear window as the sun steeply sloped, shattered through their little cool water droplet prisms.  

If that were all there was ... the back was surely broken. 

Longer op-ed: It's really kind of hard to gauge where we are in the seasonal transition monitoring for me. My observation is that we are split during mid month, with both seasonal migration evident, simultaneously ..with positive non-hydrostatic heights and anomalies pervasively lingering everywhere S of the 50th parallel. 

I see those two concurrent aspect going on.

Looking at the EPS mean for D6:   That is a split continent. The activation of the polar westerlies is clearly presented, with autumn along and quite coherently orienting N of southern Canada.  Immediately south of those ~ latitudes, those heights are much much more consistent with ongoing summer - and those heights are anchored by the Global HC shit unfortunately... 

Now... the proximity of the activated polar westerlies near by will be mean episodic backside confluence ..sending shallow pressure perturbations S.  As we know, our geologic curse means that air masses are physically drawn into the area - if give any plausible reason to do so, models will bust and the mass will do so exceeding all expectations. Just a matter of how much or little in the latter sense. So it's not a clean heat signal - these perturbations will be sending low level 925 mb pulses of abrupt air.. etc. 

But it gets into relativity ...those are irrelevant in describing the hemisphere; but they are entirely relevant to this geographic region.  So, those that 'want' the back broken ...win by virtue feeling like it is, when in the larger scope, the Hemisphere may as well be mid July with 20C 850 plumes and 588 to 594 non-hydrostatic height waves rollin' east to merge with WAR like that.   Not sure who wins LOL

This seems to point to a compression/gradient look trying to establish, too. That westerly jet pushing south against static positive anomalies everywhere between the Iberian peninsula Japan ...i.e., the whole world, is going to create some fantastic autumn jet velocities as this heads deeper into October.    

Please no premature snow till after thanksgiving, this early am was perfect!

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Please no premature snow till after thanksgiving, this early am was perfect!

Thanks to our lovely Hadley cell it would be unusual not to see snows in Oct/Nov. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, 512high said:

Please no premature snow till after thanksgiving, this early am was perfect!

Oh it was, too.   I also had accompanying sensations of nostalgia for it.   You know?  - how seasons all have a distinctive smell?

I can smell dew-rich air .. heh, it's like the 'body odor' down wind of a summer thunderstorm.

I can smell dew-starved air, as it mixes with browned leafs, both Indian summer or early cold snap.

I can smell snow, just before a nor'easter, when the barren black tree limbs wobble beneath a sky that looks like busted mammata ..virga tendrils dangling.

I can smell the mud of the recently thawed earth in late March.  Sometimes, just then...you sense both snow in late 'farmer's gold' while falls and melts upon softened soil. It's interesting how these have very distinctive identities.

It's true.  This morning you could see the affect of autumn ...but the air didn't smell of autumn -not just yet.   Still the visual cues were enough and I was imaging to times.  Like up at my brother-in-law's in early Novembers.  We set to felling a tree in those years; they were to prep for the next years fire wood... That 40 F air, and the smell of crunching leafs below foot with occasional wood smoke.   Then the game was on, Patriots... and if lucky, ...some packing pellet snow grits ...but those games were more December.  Some of those 2003 - 2009 years were good for that experience.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh it was, too.   I also had accompanying sensations of nostalgia for it.   You know?  - how seasons all have a distinctive smell?

I can smell dew-rich air .. heh, it's like the 'body odor' down wind of a summer thunderstorm.

I can smell dew-starved air, as it mixes with browned leafs, both Indian summer or early cold snap.

I can smell snow, just before a nor'easter, when the barren black tree limbs wobble beneath a sky has that busted mammata lool ..virga tendrils dangling.

I can smell the mud of the recently thawed earth in late March.  Sometimes, just then...you sense both snow in late 'farmer's gold' while falls and melts upon softened soil. It's interesting how these have very distinctive identities.

It's true.  This morning you could see the affect of autumn ...but the air didn't smell of autumn -not just yet.   Still the visual cues were enough and I was imaging to times.  Like up at my brother-in-law's in early Novembers.  We set to felling a tree in those years; they were to prep for the next years fire wood... That 40 F air, and the smell of crunching leafs below foot with occasional wood smoke.   Then the game was on, Patriots... and if lucky, ...some packing pellet snow grits ...but those games were more December.  Some of those 2003 - 2009 years were good for that experience.

2000-2009 had some frigid Octobers. 2007 was a huge notable exception but we had some brutally cold ones mixed in there. 

Of course, we already discussed the plethora of snow events during those years in October. 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thanks to our lovely Hadley cell it would be unusual not to see snows in Oct/Nov. 

Mm... actually, counter-intuitive perhaps but the opposite is true.

The short version:    ...the earlier than normal activation of the seasonal polar jet is causing earlier than normal pattern coherency - lending to CAA.

Longer version:  This is likely due to compression against the HC when normal seasonal gestation of cooling at higher latitudes defaults the ambient gradient. That gradation speeds up of the westerlies, earlier than normal ... Physical forcing requires the wave mechanics will organize super structures ...earlier than normal;  R-wave organization --> pattern coherence and summer entropy is replaced by more order.  This triggers patterns that typically are more identifiable as we head toward Dec... to occur by mid Oct's... etc.  

This does not mean "snow" per se.  What it does mean, cold delivery ... setting the stage for snow chances from around those ~ times through Thanks Giving ..etc... Yes, while vast majority of the surrounding world's stasis happens to be on the crimson sides of the color coded graphics put out by the NASA state of the climate publications, we get the unique ability of hiding from GW because we're getting snow can cold...obfuscating the truth - ...taking some personal attack space saying that.. . 

What's funny about this ... we could still be pulling off these snow chances in above normal October and Novembers.  They are happening is short duration bursts.  Interceded by startling offset returns to warmth.  In other words, the increased variability is probably the distinguishing science in the matter, but ... people will remember the snow on or by Halloween's or soon thereafter.  I actually put some of these white thanks givings recently as part of the same phenomenon.  

[Typhoon Tip]

You know  what's interesting about that Greenland/'Larry' ordeal, with that flash cyclone transition into a white-hurricane affect -

That's actually happened more or less down here, if more so in a 'relatable' fashion in the annuls dating back centuries.  

Sandy was sort of a distant cousin, by getting swallowed up in that trough... WV did in fact get a bad early snow storm from that while NJ was getting fisted by a conveyor squeeze between -NAO blacking high and the left-hooking beast. 

Point is, the that's a unique and interesting sort of phenomenon that is, albeit rare, something that can produce well above the standard deviation storm anomaly distribution in snow fall, if things are timed and physically interacting just right. 

We've spoke and presented in post example ... I think the 1700's were big on doing this... where some early season cold was situated Ontario just biding time, and the cane slammed into the NY Bite ... But the Greenland present example helps elucidate that phenomenon.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know  what's interesting about that Greenland/'Larry' ordeal, with that flash cyclone transition into a white-hurricane affect -

That's actually happened more or less down here, if more so in a 'relatable' fashion in the annuls dating back centuries.  

Sandy was sort of a distant cousin, by getting swallowed up in that trough... WV did in fact get a bad early snow storm from that while NJ was getting fisted by a conveyor squeeze between -NAO blacking high and the left-hooking beast. 

Point is, the that's a unique and interesting sort of phenomenon that is, albeit rare, something that can produce well above the standard deviation storm anomaly distribution in snow fall, if things are timed and physically interacting just right. 

We've spoke and presented in post example ... I think the 1700's were big on doing this... where some early season cold was situated Ontario just biding time, and the cane slammed into the NY Bite ... But the Greenland present example helps elucidate that phenomenon.

October 1804 had a really big one. 2-3 feet of snow from N ORH county to Berkshires/NW CT and into NH/VT. Even northern Middlesex/Essex got like a foot of paste at the end.

The interesting thing about that storm was the center tracked over like E CT to SE MA. It wasn’t like the snow was only 300 miles away from the center. It was just barely NW of it. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thanks to our lovely Hadley cell it would be unusual not to see snows in Oct/Nov. 

As a child growing up in NNJ, it was common to have accumulating snow in November.   October was rare but I remember trick or treating in a snowstorm sometime in the early to mid 1950s.

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

3K NAM hits central MA a bit, but I think that sags south

Yeah it'll probably end up south.

[tamarack]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

October 1804 had a really big one. 2-3 feet of snow from N ORH county to Berkshires/NW CT and into NH/VT. Even northern Middlesex/Essex got like a foot of paste at the end.

The interesting thing about that storm was the center tracked over like E CT to SE MA. It wasn’t like the snow was only 300 miles away from the center. It was just barely NW of it. 

I've read that the late October storm that took 2 lives on Katahdin in 1963 was the remains of a hurricane.  Ripogenis Dam had 19" of wet snow (low 30s, 2.75" LE) at 965'.  The 2 fatals (woman stuck on a ledge and ranger from Chimney Pond who went to help) were at over 4,000' and facing north.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

October 1804 had a really big one. 2-3 feet of snow from N ORH county to Berkshires/NW CT and into NH/VT. Even northern Middlesex/Essex got like a foot of paste at the end.

The interesting thing about that storm was the center tracked over like E CT to SE MA. It wasn’t like the snow was only 300 miles away from the center. It was just barely NW of it. 

Climate Change

... seriously, 'magine if that happened now, in this powder keg of blaming stub toes and lost car keys ...   man, what a hysteria bag that would be. 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

October 1804 had a really big one. 2-3 feet of snow from N ORH county to Berkshires/NW CT and into NH/VT. Even northern Middlesex/Essex got like a foot of paste at the end.

The interesting thing about that storm was the center tracked over like E CT to SE MA. It wasn’t like the snow was only 300 miles away from the center. It was just barely NW of it. 

Ye olde slant-stick.

[powderfreak]

What a day.  Boring weather is Top 10 weather.

Widespread low to mid 70s for all with dews upper 40s north to low 50s south.

September at its finest.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stewin

 

[Damage In Tolland]

This has derecho written all over it. EML around where is @weatherwiz

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would toss details of that long term GFS, but the general gist of AN temps and humidity seem likely for a bit

[WhitinsvilleWX]

7 hours ago, BrianW said:

$1800 a year on gas for just the pool heater?

My buddy owns a pool company and he said they have insanely efficient inverter driven pool heat pumps now. They operate at a coefficient of performance (cop) of 14. That's an effective efficiency of 1400%. For every 1kw used your sending 14kw into the pool. 

 

I also said I have a fireplace insert and I cook with it too.
I have a pool heat pump too. Basically a big boat anchor. They don’t work on the ends of the pool season when you really want heat. And they use more electricity than touted. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This has derecho written all over it. EML around where is @weatherwiz

Pretty impressive looking setup here. Connecticut looks to be in a prime spot actually being on the northern fringe of the EML should help in the essence the EML will provide a cap, however, cap shouldn't be too strong to inhibit development. Despite this occurring overnight, strong surge of theta-e air and extremely impressive jet dynamics should compensate...plus EML and high theta-e air will keep solid instability. This could be big...

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Pretty impressive looking setup here. Connecticut looks to be in a prime spot actually being on the northern fringe of the EML should help in the essence the EML will provide a cap, however, cap shouldn't be too strong to inhibit development. Despite this occurring overnight, strong surge of theta-e air and extremely impressive jet dynamics should compensate...plus EML and high theta-e air will keep solid instability. This could be big...

NAM likes MA, but one can envision that continuing SE right to coast