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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What’s the 6z euro ens show for Larry 

continuation of 0z bump back East or...anyone got it . 18z started to get interesting 

The probability is super, super low but certainly not 0% so does bear to be peaked at. 

I think having such higher latitude and the fact that it will be gaining latitude over the next several days vastly increases any odds of it impacting the coast (outside of swells of course). 

If it stayed on more of a due west course towards Cuba and SE US. well...could have been interesting

image.png.abc6099f987cb75854ec9412aa559c8b.png

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The WNW motion seems to make it extremely unlikely. If we do start to see a turn with a more northerly motion by the end of the weekend (which seems likely) then the chances are 0%. Right now the chances are probably like less than 1%. 

Although if Larry does undergo RI and gets into category 3 or 4 status could this favor a more westerly track? 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

The WNW motion seems to make it extremely unlikely. If we do start to see a turn with a more northerly motion by the end of the weekend (which seems likely) then the chances are 0%. Right now the chances are probably like less than 1%. 

Although if Larry does undergo RI and gets into category 3 or 4 status could this favor a more westerly track? 

Tropical thread in the New England thread

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't look now but 6z Euro wants to ruin Labor day

index (44).png

I think the majority of that is Sunday into early Monday as the front moves through. The front may hold up long enough to keep the risk for showers/thunder for eastern sections through the first half of Monday though. Although maybe some cold pool showers Monday PM?

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