ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The CMC shows Larry missing the weakness in the ridge to the north as another one builds in. We'll see if other models start showing that but it's the outlier attm Euro has been close now some of the GEFS are showing it, its a Longshot but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: be careful-Euro is often overdone with winds How man times do I hear that then see it really doesn't. Was it overdone with Henri? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Or maybe you….. or you…. Or you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How man times do I hear that then see it really doesn't. Was it overdone with Henri? I was surprised it did so well with Henri. I remember Isaias it had like widespread 70-80 gusts across SNE and has overdone them in winter systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Euro has been close now some of the GEFS are showing it, its a Longshot but... We toss for now. Wake me up when it gets to the Antilles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Or maybe you….. or you…. Or you? Did you just quote Ralph Richardson in the 1972 classic “Tales from the Crypt”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: and check out the 384hr GFS I was looking at NE regional view and trying to figure out what you were talking about. Lucky for NO that's the 384hr GFS. Although Louisiana's next hurricane hit is just 192hs out on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Those Euro gust products are trash 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: I was surprised it did so well with Henri. I remember Isaias it had like widespread 70-80 gusts across SNE and has overdone them in winter systems. Henri was an actual storm with an eye-this is just remnants. I've see it go hog wild on winds with other systems too and it seems overdone most of the time-maybe it scores the coup here. (although I would laugh if we got more wind out of this that the Henri bust) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I have signs of schizophrenia but part of me wonders if HAARPA or whatever that outfit is called is fixin to drown me based on private conversations I’ve had with clairvoyant folk. I’m not Monica Lewinsky Seriously though my apartment is IN the river and I’m smack dab near the center of this upcoming action and the river has nearly flooded before this year, reaching a height that’s greatest since 2005 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: I have signs of schizophrenia but part of me wonders if HAARPA or whatever that outfit is called is fixin to drown me based on private conversations I’ve had with clairvoyant folk. I’m not Monica Lewinsky Seriously though my apartment is IN the river and I’m smack dab near the center of this upcoming action and the river has nearly flooded before this year, reaching a height that’s greatest since 2005 Hydro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Those Euro gust products are trash Wind aside, the 12 HREF really got my attention. It'll be interesting to see how the high resolution guidance looks at this setup. Early on, it doesn't look pretty. I know for my area it has been a wild year for river flooding. A widespread high rainfall event could bring the worst flooding yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wrong . You’ll flood there by that river I guess it isn't south after all. However, what is all this river talk? I don't think you know where I live. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 vs Hoping David wins this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 34 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The CMC shows Larry missing the weakness in the ridge to the north as another one builds in. We'll see if other models start showing that but it's the outlier attm Not to inflate those odds or nothin' ... .don't need to do that around here lol but, the idea of the early recurve is/was more baseline topography of statistics given to the expanse of the basin and time, combined. These CV systems are always favored to turn early by virtue of that. It seems as tho the models shed steering out in time, and then the beta-drift takes over which biases the track right - once there it get hooked up with the westerlies... completing the turn on the D 7-9 Once in a blue moon, a CV cyclone evolves and the models keep it south on a west motif ...But, I think if we looked at all historic modeling for systems that affected the Americas, that were of CV origin ... it wouldn't shock me if more than half were modeled to either turn early, or had the duck tail toward the right motion in the extended, but corrected left along their way. Of course and obviously, some also do turn early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Dendrite and Lava in the goods on the EPS. Chickens washed away and canyons for Lava. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 We tried and tried and tried to tell em … for days and days and days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 They cried south.. we screamed turn your upside down monitors right side up. It’s north. They cried no , it’s south. We screeched .. it’s north . They woke up this morning demanding it was south. North 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Now we demand north. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 PA gets croaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 It would be nice to see a warm front do as it’s told for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: for a mean thats nuts for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: PA gets croaked. Signal there has been epic, but it's bad out here too because the rainfall rate could be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They cried south.. we screamed turn your upside down monitors right side up. It’s north. They cried no , it’s south. We screeched .. it’s north . They woke up this morning demanding it was south. North You're calling it lately! 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 46 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: I was surprised it did so well with Henri. I remember Isaias it had like widespread 70-80 gusts across SNE and has overdone them in winter systems. That was probably DIT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 flash flood watch extended north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 The proficiency of the phasing in the Euro is astounding ... That's one helluva synergistic wave amplitude/trough closed result there. Someone up there in eastern Ontario is getting wind warning easterly jet over the top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 54 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Those Euro gust products are trash Better than yours for Henri? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Better than yours for Henri? Get lost. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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