September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they adjusted it down by .01 lol

So statistical tie with 2016, 2019, and 2020 for the hottest ever? 

[CoastalWx]

Summers will overall get warmer and more humid. Why is that so hard to deal with?

[tamarack]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yea we haven't seen a real fall transition since the 2000s. 

When's the last time Sep-Nov was near or below normal. 95?

2019 at the Farmington co-op, almost as much BN as 2018.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Summers will overall get warmer and more humid. Why is that so hard to deal with?

And start earlier but especially end later . Which affects leaf change . Peak dates moving farther out in time. Not in 50 years, but now and the past 20 years 

[dryslot]

58 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what is it now? 9 out of the past 10 septembers above normal? that would get to me if i liked winter

When did september become a winter month? 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And start earlier but especially end later . Which affects leaf change . Peak dates moving farther out in time. Not in 50 years, but now and the past 20 years 

Of course the color change is triggered mainly by changes in sunlight (which won't differ) and the vibrancy of the color is what is mostly affected by weather conditions. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not very UHI for a city of 60K, where I live.  More trees than pavement/buildings.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Of course the color change is triggered mainly by changes in sunlight (which won't differ) and the vibrancy of the color is what is mostly affected by weather conditions. 

If that was the case we’d have equal changes each year in terms of when they change and when they fall. Last year with the cool September they were weeks ahead of normal.. helped in part by the drought. This year with no cool fall weather yet.. everywhere is well behind 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

When did september become a winter month? 

 

 

When people said Summer's back was broken.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If that was the case we’d have equal changes each year in terms of when they change and when they fall. Last year with the cool September they were weeks ahead of normal.. helped in part by the drought. This year with no cool fall weather yet.. everywhere is well behind 

I'm not an arborist by any means, but there's just a window where trees will keep their chlorophyll. We're not going to shift peak peeping by a month.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not an arborist by any means, but there's just a window where trees will keep their chlorophyll. We're not going to shift peak peeping by a month.

Eventually a '38 redux will occur and we may have to never worry about when leaves change color again 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Eventually a '38 redux will occur and we may have to never worry about when leaves change color again 

I'm stunned CT still has trees left to peep.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not an arborist by any means, but there's just a window where trees will keep their chlorophyll. We're not going to shift peak peeping by a month.

Yeah I find it can vary by a week or something, but peak has always been somewhere in like Oct 7-14.  I don’t think we are behind right now up here to be honest… September hasn’t been that warm to date.

The leaves change with the sunlight so like you said, it’s hard to drastically alter that.  It’s not like some years peak is Sept 15 and others it’s Halloween.  The range of variance is quite small to a week or two at absolute most.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I find it can vary by a week or something, but peak has always been somewhere in like Oct 7-14.  I don’t think we are behind right now up here to be honest… September hasn’t been that warm to date.

The leaves change with the sunlight so like you said, it’s hard to drastically alter that.

My favorite swamp maples on the way to work starting hinting in late August like they always do. They are really starting to turn color now and typically they are peaking around my birthday which is next week. So we even seem to be on track around here.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

keep sticking your head in the sand

Excuse me, I said the world is warming but won't take non facts thrown out like candy off a firetruck at a parade. Fact is for BDL for the period 9-1 to 9-16 the normals went up .3 degrees. Go home little man your forum is calling you.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My favorite swamp maples on the way to work starting hinting in late August like they always do. They are really starting to turn color now and typically they are peaking around my birthday which is next week. So we even seem to be on track around here.

Even up on the mountain, the wildflowers and grasses start going dormant and brown/golden in later August.  Temperatures have very little affect there, it’s all sunlight.  The ground cover starts to go to sleep even if it’s humid and 80F.  That’s why the grooming team mows then.  It’s over then for ground growth regardless of weather.

I don’t know, I find the claims that stuff is really early or really late might mean a shorter or longer foliage season but in the end, the peak occurs within a similar 7-10 day time frame annually.  You won’t see much more of a difference than that.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Summers will overall get warmer and more humid. Why is that so hard to deal with?

I realize you were just asking the rhetorical question, still, for some ...it's personal - most likely.

I've mentioned this in years past, but ...since it's a touchy subject that hits closer to the vest with the psycho-babble shit, it was either ignored or met with replies at best, sometimes even vitriol - probably by those that know they have it in the latter and get defensive.

It's called -(S.A.D.) ... yes, that's right, 'negative S.A.D.'  It's the less common variant of seasonal affecting issues, but it does have an impact on people's emotional and psychic states during the summer.   Simply put, they loathe high sun, bright light lingering into evenings, and warmth.  These trigger the same response that the dimming/cooling of autumn and winter affect on the bigger, more common population.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/summer-seasonal-affective-disorder-5187898 

"Summertime SAD is less common than wintertime SAD."

"“It is believed that the intense light in the summer, which might be accompanied by heat and high humidity, are involved in the change in mood and well-being,” Hoffmann says. “One hypothesis is that the intense sun in some people overexcites your brain, which might cause anxiety, sleeplessness, and agitation.”

I have long suspected that return contributors ...spanning many years, has distilled the group into being one that is a concentration ( tendency therein..) of these rarer types.  They long for darker, colder times, and associate that with joy.  Such that it is entirely easy to understand how winter storms and snow and other attributes that establish nostalgic pathways back to that realm are preferred, because the alternative actually causes them discomfort.  

I mean, it doesn't have to black or white... it's all about tendencies and degrees of it therein.   So, when someone is off on summer dominating this that or the other thing, ..it's going to rub folks the wrong way.

[CoastalWx]

Although the sun has the biggest say, the years with little to no frosts through October really make the leaves stubborn. But once that frost or freeze comes...boom. I don't radiate on this mini hill and have a lot of oaks, so the leaves are stubborn. But after the 10/30 snow last year, it was amazing how the leaves just said "eff this" and fell off almost totally in 10 days. 

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even up on the mountain, the wildflowers and grasses start going dormant and brown/golden in later August.  Temperatures have very little affect there, it’s all sunlight.  The ground cover starts to go to sleep even if it’s humid and 80F.  That’s why the grooming team mows then.  It’s over then for ground growth regardless of weather.

I don’t know, I find the claims that stuff is really early or really late might mean a shorter or longer foliage season but in the end, the peak occurs within a similar 7-10 day time frame annually.  You won’t see much more of a difference than that.

CAR does their 10/2 foliage picture every year. And there are differences on the specific date, but overall most years are pretty similar. Warmer than normal definitely holds peak off like 2015, but dry can lead to early drop like 2020. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Time sensitive but if you loop this .. .you get the distinct impression that there is a bit of a secondary momentum/'tuck' moving into NE zones...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Although the sun has the biggest say, the years with little to no frosts through October really make the leaves stubborn. But once that frost or freeze comes...boom. I don't radiate on this mini hill and have a lot of oaks, so the leaves are stubborn. But after the 10/30 snow last year, it was amazing how the leaves just said "eff this" and fell off almost totally in 10 days. 

I think Oak leaves would survive a nuclear winter the way they reman on the trees all winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even up on the mountain, the wildflowers and grasses start going dormant and brown/golden in later August.  Temperatures have very little affect there, it’s all sunlight.  The ground cover starts to go to sleep even if it’s humid and 80F.  That’s why the grooming team mows then.  It’s over then for ground growth regardless of weather.

I don’t know, I find the claims that stuff is really early or really late might mean a shorter or longer foliage season but in the end, the peak occurs within a similar 7-10 day time frame annually.  You won’t see much more of a difference than that.

Maybe on the magic Mtn it’s like that. But for most of the rest of the laymen .. it’s about 70% related to the weather conditions. Early ad cool falls like last year things pop and fall weeks ahead.. warm humid falls with little in the way of cool nights and warm sunny days means weeks late such as 2011.

[snowman21]

Growing season is extending in the fall by about 0.5 days per year, and Septembers overall have been warming by a steady 0.1F per year going back 35-40 years.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

Growing season is extending in the fall by about 0.5 days per year, and Septembers overall have been warming by a steady 0.1F per year going back 35-40 years.

Add those numbers to the already overflowing CC data pool ...

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

So statistical tie with 2016, 2019, and 2020 for the hottest ever? 

True didn't see NOAA or media walk it back, indeed NOAA still has the headlines up in its Climate data section. NBD but let's be fair, when you say hottest ever then say well it wasn't you should correct the record. You know follow the science and all. Scientists like accurate information.  Their maps always bug me.  One if these things is not like the other.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I guess we are comparing different things with back broken.  There is no doubt it has been much different than August IMO.  I was running my A/C consistently and it hasn’t been on once in September and I haven’t been swimming once either… that’s what I think of when back broken.

Just because we carry +1.5 in October or November doesn’t mean its still summer.  I’m not sure when the cut-off happens but most months are above normal these days.  We’ve stepped down a good 5-10F from August on average it seems at most stations.

Maybe 10-15F lower than August will break the back.

my avg temp in Aug was 73. so far in Sept, it's 67. I'd say that's a change.

[forkyfork]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Excuse me, I said the world is warming but won't take non facts thrown out like candy off a firetruck at a parade. Fact is for BDL for the period 9-1 to 9-16 the normals went up .3 degrees. Go home little man your forum is calling you.

1981-2010: 64

1991-2020: 65

thanks for playing

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

True didn't see NOAA or media walk it back, indeed NOAA still has the headlines up in its Climate data section. NBD but let's be fair, when you say hottest ever then say well it wasn't you should correct the record. You know follow the science and all. Scientists like accurate information.  Their maps always bug me.  One if these things is not like the other.

Well yes one of these things is not like the other because they are two different datasets with two different resolutions, pretty colors aside. 

Where have you even seen info about this walk back of July 2021? Personally do I believe stories should be corrected yes, but it's also a fraction of a degree so I don't expect newsflashes from the media to report the change in September. They could barely cover it for more than a day in July.

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Although the sun has the biggest say, the years with little to no frosts through October really make the leaves stubborn. But once that frost or freeze comes...boom. I don't radiate on this mini hill and have a lot of oaks, so the leaves are stubborn. But after the 10/30 snow last year, it was amazing how the leaves just said "eff this" and fell off almost totally in 10 days. 

Yeah I think it affects the length of colorful fall foliage.  But the end will come at a similar time each year.  Maybe you drag color out for a month or they are stubborn and stay green then all go at once…. But there’s a point that is very consistent up here when trees finally say “we done” regardless of weather.  It’s around the 2nd week of October.

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not an arborist by any means, but there's just a window where trees will keep their chlorophyll. We're not going to shift peak peeping by a month.

Vegetation has a shelf life. Very obvious now with weeds, grapes, vegetables all dying that slow death. Lots of leaves falling as well. Chlorophyll will change based on light and water its inevitable.