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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Let’s extend the shorts wearing season as long as possible… above normal run sounds fantastic right now.  These nights with 12-hours of 50s followed by a spike into the mid-70s in the afternoon are excellent top-10 contenders.

Except you'll be in the 80s ... but sure. 

Well okay .. .if your hangin' out with Red Tail hawk aeries up there above 2K elevations ... sure.  But this is everyone S-E of the ST L. Seaway bathing in a deep, homogeneously (through the vertical integral) warm anomaly.   I bet its positive anomaly from 200 mb all the way down lol..

I also think DPs will be too high to shed temperature that much at night - even this late.  Might be interesting to test the seasonal dew ringing, vs the (CC + pattern anomaly)/2.   I almost visualize morning's so dew that the soil beneath the feet get real watering and small puddles form in the gutters. 

 

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Let’s extend the shorts wearing season as long as possible… above normal run sounds fantastic right now.  These nights with 12-hours of 50s followed by a spike into the mid-70s in the afternoon are excellent top-10 contenders.

Loving the forecast on the ensembles....do not want cold yet.

In early/mid October, I'll take a short-lived hard freeze to kill the rest of the bugs, but otherwise, keep the above average stuff this time of the year. I got no use for those days where it's 57/37 hi/lo until maybe I have to bother to do a lot of yard cleanup when leaves fall. Then having it cooler is nice.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Loving the forecast on the ensembles....do not want cold yet.

In early/mid October, I'll take a short-lived hard freeze to kill the rest of the bugs, but otherwise, keep the above average stuff this time of the year. I got no use for those days where it's 57/37 hi/lo until maybe I have to bother to do a lot of yard cleanup when leaves fall. Then having it cooler is nice.

This. Give me 75/50 hi/lo for the next 2 months. Then 55/35 in mid November.

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe I'm not searching right but this is actually not so easy to find.

Trying to find the 'latest in a calendar year a heat wave took place' ... etc, but it's not apparently a very popular observation -

Latest I can find for BOS is 9/21-9/23 in 1914.

 

LEt me see what BDL had....

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe I'm not searching right but this is actually not so easy to find.

Trying to find the 'latest in a calendar year a heat wave took place' ... etc, but it's not apparently a very popular observation -

As far as I can tell these are the latest in SNE:

BDL 9/21-23/1914

BDR 8/28-9/2/1953

BOS 9/21-23/1914

ORH 9/14-16/1915

PVD 9/7-9/2015

 

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that is a warm look on the EPS. 

No shit, man -

I just saw that 192 hour look. 

 this,

image.thumb.png.20bc3acdfb7e9c690679e9ade74c70d0.png

is anchored so deeply in every statistical inference method there is it'd need a planetary root canal not to succeed. 

But it's not just the y-coordinate of the non-hydrostatic height field, as it's rollin' through the OV/ southern Ontario.  I mean that's probably only 1 or maybe 2 SD in actual vertical anomaly.   It's the 'longitude' of that wave structure/ x-coordinate.  It's very massive in that west-east aspect. That thing is like a tsunamis wave out at sea, where the energy is all in the lateral, such that when it hits land it piles up ... and become vertical?

Sort of a metaphor for the real surface temperature potential. 

A more "intangible" aspect: with so much ballast in the 'length' aspect of the larger synoptic wave, that means it is got too much momentum and will likely need to degenerate over longer time. 

In other words, that's not looking like just a 2 day misty warm sector there.  I mean sometimes these dramatic warm signals ... particularly post August 15's, will tend to over balloon ...and then the westerlies come along and dictate them as short duration warm sector intrusions ... etc.  But that really looks it has a pretty solid and confident chance to be more than that.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Loving the forecast on the ensembles....do not want cold yet.

In early/mid October, I'll take a short-lived hard freeze to kill the rest of the bugs, but otherwise, keep the above average stuff this time of the year. I got no use for those days where it's 57/37 hi/lo until maybe I have to bother to do a lot of yard cleanup when leaves fall. Then having it cooler is nice.

Anything to avoid the highs in the 50-65F range… do 65-85F as long as possible and then jump straight to 40s/20s :lol:.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Anything to avoid the highs in the 50-65F range… do 65-85F as long as possible and then jump straight to 40s/20s :lol:.

Yeah when i was typing my post, I was trying to figure out when I actually like a high of 50-60F....the only answer I came up with was when I'm doing strenuous yard work or something during leaf cleanup season. Then I think it's better than 75F. But other than that, bring on the warmth until the rubber band snaps and the snow falls.

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Latest I can find for BOS is 9/21-9/23 in 1914.

 

LEt me see what BDL had....

Farther north, central/western Maine (LEW/Gardiner/Farmington/Bridgton) all had a heatwave on those same dates in 1895.  Farmington recorded 100 on 9/22 but I'm skeptical of some of their warm-season maxima 1893-97.  However, Bridgton reached 95, LEW 96 and to the northeast, Orono had 97 (but only 2 days 90+).

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I dunno -

I like those nostalgia afternoons though, from Oct 20 to Nov 15 or so... You know, where it's 44 F with sloped tepid sun in between virga blobbed CUs passing near-by, that send spritzers of cold rain drops along with those teeny packing pellets.  Not enough to wet the air or Earth, but in the air. And it's accompanying the deodorizing polar air aroma that we come to recognize as that 'smell of snow.' 

Completing the picture, while doing the particularly loathsome chore called raking, the wood smoke curls around the stacks to add some cinnamon to the air.  Baked chicken and mashed taters with gravy .... Or, en route to crew with dudes for b-wings and Patriots games ... In either one of these two settings, knowing you have 3 or 4 months of winter weather phenomenon to switch gears finding inspiration.   I don't like that packing pellet days in early May, no LOL.

Maybe those autumns are gone forever.

After that shit show yesterday, the Pats part of it may not contribute again - haha.  But also, I think we are in trouble for those 'transition weeks' anyway. It is hard to steady state the seasonal migration when we have this CC stuff more and more so proving to be a disruption on circulation structures and pattern this and that, when trying to move the hemisphere colder.  It seems it's like 70 F or ...advisory snow.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah when i was typing my post, I was trying to figure out when I actually like a high of 50-60F....the only answer I came up with was when I'm doing strenuous yard work or something during leaf cleanup season. Then I think it's better than 75F. But other than that, bring on the warmth until the rubber band snaps and the snow falls.

Yeah for me it’s in March and April is the only time… those 55F sunny days in later March are almost euphoric.  Aside from spring time coming out of a cold winter, highs in the 50s are pretty un-inspiring to me.  Manual labor probably the only thing good about it.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah for me it’s in March and April is the only time… those 55F sunny days in later March are almost euphoric.  Aside from spring time coming out of a cold winter, highs in the 50s are pretty un-inspiring to me.  Manual labor probably the only thing good about it.

This is perfection for Sept. Lock it up.

download (11).png

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah for me it’s in March and April is the only time… those 55F sunny days in later March are almost euphoric.  Aside from spring time coming out of a cold winter, highs in the 50s are pretty un-inspiring to me.  Manual labor probably the only thing good about it.

50F with 10 feet of base on the ski slopes is totally fine...lol.

I get Tip's nostalgia for the graupel showers and 45F, and I'm ok with it too....but after one day of it, I don't really want anymore of it. The first pellets/flakes of the season are a novelty that are fun, but then you are ready for real winter....or just go back to 70F. Everyone's got their own preferences though.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno -

I like those nostalgia afternoons though, from Oct 20 to Nov 15 or so... You know, where it's 44 F with sloped tepid sun in between virga blobbed CUs passing near-by, that send spritzers of cold rain drops along with those teeny packing pellets.  Not enough to wet the air or Earth, but in the air. And it's accompanying the deodorizing polar air aroma that we come to recognize as that 'smell of snow.' 

Completing the picture, while doing the particularly loathsome chore called raking, the wood smoke curls around the stacks to add some cinnamon to the air.  Backed chicken and mashed taters with gravy .... Or, en route to crew with dudes for b-wings and Patriots games ... In either one of these two settings, knowing you have 3 or 4 months of winter weather phenomenon to switch gears finding inspiration.   I don't like that packing pellet days in early May, no LOL.

Maybe those autumns are gone forever 

2018 2019 Oct 15 to Nov 15 beg to differ

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those charts have been brutally bad this month. Calling for cool and BN. Do people really use those? 

Where do you see cool and BN on that chart Ginxy just posted?

Theres literally a climo line on them for easy reference.  Almost every day looks to average AN on that prog.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Where do you see cool and BN on that chart Ginxy just posted?

Theres literally a climo line on them for easy reference.  Almost every day looks to average AN on that prog.

They had 50’s for lows and like 68-74 for highs for the last week . They were just way too cool. Same as winter .They always are too cool

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1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

As far as I can tell these are the latest in SNE:

BDL 9/21-23/1914

BDR 8/28-9/2/1953

BOS 9/21-23/1914

ORH 9/14-16/1915

PVD 9/7-9/2015

 

That Worcester one there ..that must have been before the 1K move up the ladder.  I don't see that altitude doing those dates when we cannot hardly ever get July to do that there.   Just guessin' 

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That Worcester one there ..that must have been before the 1K move up the ladder.  I don't see that altitude doing those dates when we cannot hardly ever get July to do that there.   Just guessin' 

 

Probably downtown.  It’s not like they had airports in 1915.

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Yeah to each his/her own...

Bottom line is, I have a lot of patience for 40 to 50 drab weather in Autumn than I do not for that kind of weather in April. And in a way ...although I start getting excited for snow as Octobers move on, I also have patience for warmth/Indian summery fare as well, just because we have winter still coming, either way.

That's basically it.  

If we wanna break it down further, ...obviously it's situation-relative.   Like, if its 44, gloomy cloudy slate skies on Sunday at 2:14 pm on Nov 13, and the models have an interesting scenario with hints of cold profiles waiting for Half Time scrolling,  that 44 almost seems charming - lol...

But if it's May 3rd, and green up is clearly 2 weeks late and we're on the verge of chopping down solar max days with it, that may as well be rectal plaque.

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