September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

Not sure if this is the place for this but…

I vividly remember tracking lake effect streamers in October hoping they would clear the berkshires …had to be like 10, so mid 90’s. Like that was how we got our first snow- every year. I remember rushing home from school to get football games organized in the snow. My question is- am I losing it or have things changed?

No you aren’t losing it....there were definitely some frigid autumns back during that period. The mid-1990s actually had some very cold Novembers which were absent for a while until we’ve recently matched them in years like 2018 and 2019. 

We had some brutally cold Septembers in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We haven’t seen those since. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No you aren’t losing it....there were definitely some frigid autumns back during that period. The mid-1990s actually had some very cold Novembers which were absent for a while until we’ve recently matched them in years like 2018 and 2019. 

We had some brutally cold Septembers in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We haven’t seen those since. 

3 straight record low mins last September is about as close as we've come to those late 80s/early 90s Septembers lately, but the month wasn't exactly cold overall.

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

A little chilly now but what a night 

Quite the ratio.

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We had some brutally cold Septembers in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We haven’t seen those since. 

Those are the years I see the snowfalls for Mansfield from… like a 4” event in Sept 1986, 1” in 1989 and 2.5” in 1991.

There was 5 measurable September snows in a decade there from early 80s to early 90s… not a single measurable September snow since the 1990s.

Looks like a trace in 2009 but other than that, nothing even remotely close to September’s from 1981 to 1991 when it seems snowfall in that month was almost regular.  I’ve seen freezing mist, super-cooled droplet clear icing in September up on the hill, but I always look at those past records like how the hell were they getting 1-4 inch events in September with some frequency.

[powderfreak]

The funny thing though is most of those snow seasons that featured September snows at the picnic tables in the 1980s were terrible winters on the whole.  Must’ve been cold September’s and then meh winters.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Larry looking annular

[ma blizzard]

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The funny thing though is most of those snow seasons that featured September snows at the picnic tables in the 1980s were terrible winters on the whole.  Must’ve been cold September’s and then meh winters.

if october snow is bad, september snow is worse?

[Torch Tiger]

59.9 crisp. winter is almost here

[Ginx snewx]

Perfection 

[Damage In Tolland]

More warmth enroute to AN overall 

16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looks like warming w respect to normal begins to normal... whether its continuous or interrupted by the next trough midweek, unknown but overall September looks to be heading to the warmer than normal side of the ledger by mid month.

Continue to look to the period after the 17th for opportunity for possibly more significant TC moisture. For now, am seeing the midweek tropical moisture in the se USA just passing se of us. So Larry's swells-rip current impact is the apparent biggest TC related action this week for our asubforum, with Nora's moisture contribution noticeable today-tonight but small.

 

[CoastalWx]

18 hours ago, weathafella said:

Long weekend shitty wx streak has been broken 

Nope. 

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

More warmth enroute to AN overall 

 

Congrats NYC, we normal 

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope. 

This weekend is infinitely better than Memorial Day or July 4th weekend.   Not perfect but we take 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This weekend is infinitely better than Memorial Day or July 4th weekend.   Not perfect but we take 

 

Two sunny days sandwiched in between a mostly cloudy day. Today’s fine other than a sprinkle or light shower especially north  I bet he’s at Winni with kids stuck inside . Can always tell lol

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Those are the years I see the snowfalls for Mansfield from… like a 4” event in Sept 1986, 1” in 1989 and 2.5” in 1991.

There was 5 measurable September snows in a decade there from early 80s to early 90s… not a single measurable September snow since the 1990s.

Looks like a trace in 2009 but other than that, nothing even remotely close to September’s from 1981 to 1991 when it seems snowfall in that month was almost regular.  I’ve seen freezing mist, super-cooled droplet clear icing in September up on the hill, but I always look at those past records like how the hell were they getting 1-4 inch events in September with some frequency.

Seeing 1986 and 1991 reminds me of 2 very different events on 9/30 of those years.  In 1986 straight line winds flattened 600 acres about 15 miles south of Fort Kent, half on Parks and Lands Eagle Lake tract and half on J.D. Irving, and ending by blowing trees into the NW end of Square Lake.  Damage was consistent with winds 90-100 mph, but I don't know if the CAR folks made a survey.
Five years later on the same date folks woke up to see 2-5" of snow, CAR's largest (only?) measurable Sept snow with 2.5".  St. John Valley sites didn't record any snow but our airphoto project, flown on 9/30 in that area, shows white ground and white trees in those areas.

[ineedsnow]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Two sunny days sandwiched in between a mostly cloudy day. Today’s fine other than a sprinkle or light shower especially north  I bet he’s at Winni with kids stuck inside . Can always tell lol

Sprinkle or light shower have you looked at the radar this morning?

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Sprinkle or light shower have you looked at the radar this morning?

Won't be a total washout all day   Again, not perfect but better than the other two long weekends

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Sprinkle or light shower have you looked at the radar this morning?

I see a few light showers near and north of pike falling into a dry atmosphere. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I see a few light showers near and north of pike falling into a dry atmosphere. 

Umm it's definitely  more than a light shower here.. the stuff in eastern NY looks even better

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Umm it's definitely  more than a light shower here.. the stuff in eastern NY looks even better

I know you want a rainy cold day so you can sit inside and look out and smile , but that is not what is occurring . I bet you don’t even get .10

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

3 straight record low mins last September is about as close as we've come to those late 80s/early 90s Septembers lately, but the month wasn't exactly cold overall.

Yeah it’s like pulling teeth to get merely a below average September these days...nevermind a -2 or -3 like we could pull back in the day. 

I feel like the last true cold September was prob 1995. 2009 was kind of chilly iirc but not like some of those others. I feel like ‘09 was chilly during day but didn’t have those biting frosts. I think 2000 had some cold nights...that whole autumn was really cold actually. Last year’s cold shot (even if it didn’t represent the month as a whole) was impressive though for sure relative to current climate. 

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know you want a rainy cold day so you can sit inside and look out and smile , but that is not what is occurring . I bet you don’t even get .10

It's  what occurring.. I don't  care if it rains I'll  still go out lol.. honestly hope you stay dry if that's  what you want I'll enjoy my cool rainy day got a lot of running  around to do.. 

[PowderBeard]

Time to "drive out the damp." Low 50s this morning, showers, house is only 64.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Time to "drive out the damp." Low 50s this morning, showers, house is only 64.

 

You have a fire going????

[PowderBeard]

11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You have a fire going????

Yup, just a small one. Everything in the house is damp. Run a small load of wood through, dries the entire house out in a half hour. Can't exactly turn on the central air to do it when the house is in the mid-60s. 

[Typhoon Tip]

We could be +1 this September, but as an artifact against climatology, not against the circumstances of the larger scales. 

not meaning to lecture here.  Observations i've come across, so fwiw - 

Simple version:  +1 against climate;   - 2 relative to that larger hemispheric circumstance.   This distinction is important, hugely

More deterministic obs: the GEFs have been highly concerted in the nightly EOFs as of late, pointing to a robust positive PNA mid month. 

Granted the index/modes are supposedly less correlated now then they will be later on in OND ... and so on. I have a problem with that assumption, however. 

Many who are sick of my harangue on the subject matter ..might know that I have been pushing an idea for years really: the HC expansion is speeding up the geostrophic medium near the slope into the Ferrel latitudes. There is empirical proof of this ... which in the interest of brevity ( haha, too late!) I won't get into.. but, the implications of a faster atmosphere: for one, it materializes/organizes into R-wave structures earlier - that's just basic wave mechanical arguments.  Understanding that modulating force ... I'm not sure we can dispense of a +PNA mode that looks like recent as mere seasonal noise.

Looking at the behavior of the mass fields between Hawaii and "Californication" (heh) among the individual 30 members ( between D7 and 14 ), some minor suggestion for prototype R-wave distribution that more coherently fits/leads the +PNAP extension downstream over N/A.

That's a cooler look for the NP/GL/OV/NE ... Noted, we put up at least one heat wave this year during a positive PNA mode, possibly related to summer index, poorer significance.  But with the actual circumstance of the trough between Hawaii and CA, that's rattling that assumption just the same. We'll see if that emerges more or fades.

The operational ends up with an ablated ridge and no heat swell above 35 N across the U.S. as of the 00z run at all. Yet it has little trough over that region of the Pacific ... so it may be flag of model instability there.

Lastly, the last 4 cycles of the EPS means have been pancaking the 'camel hump' non-hydrostatic ridge signal in the mid CONUS D7-10.  That's lending to the operational Euro being a bit of a warm outlier with +3 SD 850 mb air layer it's sending to Detroit D's 9/10. 

I don't have as much/a lot of confidence in a warm mid month...  the ultra short version ha!  I'm just not sure that the offset will be relative to climate, or relative to the hemisphere - again, there is a crucial distinction there.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Yup, just a small one. Everything in the house is damp. Run a small load of wood through, dries the entire house out in a half hour. Can't exactly turn on the central air to do it when the house is in the mid-60s. 

Most years I do not even turn the heat on till late October..

[PowderBeard]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Most years I do not even turn the heat on till late October..

I try to avoid ever turning it on unless we are not home, didn't even go through 3/4 of a tank of oil last year. My buddy lives on an island in Maine and essentially every house has a fire going any time its under 65* at night to "drive out the damp" as they call it. Thought it was nuts but works real well, better than turning on the heat.

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

More warmth enroute to AN overall 

 

Yes, you're probably going to be right...  that would fit the opportunity for our NYC attempt at 10+.  

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Yes, you're probably going to be right...  that would fit the opportunity for our NYC attempt at 10+.  

Most folks on same page it seems of a warm month starting the 15th or so