NORA remnant moisture (low impact? or more than that) into the NYC subforum between Sept Sun 5th-Mon 6th

[wdrag]

512P/3 hitttled topic header to the 5th-6th. Further topic update Saturday morning.

 

 

NORA's life as TC will end as it nears AZ late next week,  but its vorticity and PWAT infusion can be tracked across northern Rockies then northern USA,  near and north of I80 (near and north of latitude 40N). The associated 500MB wind max appears to track across our area late on the 4th, but the moisture infusion is stretched to possibly lay out arross our area the 5th-6th. If the cold front stalls in our area,  then the moisture release could be of 3" interest.  Just need to wait a few more days to figure out if its just 1/4" convective showers or a stripe of 3" rainfall somewhere in our subforum.  If the front does not stall passing through our area, then the impact will be nominal-all of this presuming the model track of NORA's remains is reasonably accurate. So, am not guaranteeing big impact but I do think this merits monitoring in our wetter than usual summer pattern. IF this does come into better focus as a significant player here, headline and tags will be upgraded.  

[gravitylover]

Wam, bam, the soaking rains just keep coming. If we can stretch this out a day or two maybe it can be a rainout for my birthday on the 7th.

[wdrag]

Am not ignoring NORA potential for enhancing rainfall potential ~ the 5th-6th.  More on NORA Monday morning. 

[wdrag]

NORA remnants: see the EC PW changes near WY as PWAT 

through a previously very dry atmosphere, then extends east from the Plains into our area by the 5th or 6th with showers near Labor Day here. 

 

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leaks 

[wdrag]

The above should be just 4 images...  It seems as one scrolls it repeated the first.  If you take the time and advance you can see the evolution east.  CO folks are starting to hope they get some of that RH as showers. 

[winterwarlock]

Is this happening? I see forecasts of sunny and 80 all3 days of Labor day weekend 

[wdrag]

I think it is happening... we get a piece of NORA RH and a band of showers on Sunday or Monday. I haven't forgotten.  The monthly contribution will be a pittance compared to Sept 1 rainfall... and not as many people as hoped to enjoy Labor Day will notice since we'll be cleaning up from this mess...flood waters/trees. I haven't forgotten NORA.  

My first goal tomorrow morning is to CoCORAHS the amounts and radar analysis as well and be done with IDA remnant. Then figure out the rest of the month... if thats possible. 

[wdrag]

Nora remnants - minor but coming. Added PW axis seen in Rockies aligning east and shooting to the mid Atlantic States by Sunday. Amounts small and may only be scattered but showers are coming Sunday the 5th.  If the timing delayed from Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon and the modeled CAPE increased, we'd be looking at a pretty decent band of convection but for now, ensembles are under 0.2 inches.  

[wdrag]

While this remnant TC moisture plume is probably hard to discern and am sure most if not all are reluctant to ascribe the coming Sunday-early Monday shower event to Nora's RH, I will. The initial burst is Sunday morning and how much elevated convection remains as it crosses the area is debatable but have to think there will be some showers in the associated instability burst (850 MB sw speed max crossing PA-NYS). 500 MB winds are not favorable for a large event here.  There could be another burst of showers in the leftover moisture late Sunday or Monday morning.  All totaled, as per WPC, probably less than 1/4".  Should be a non player in leftover receding waters of Post Trop IDA.

[wdrag]

Well,  I don't know yet what to believe, but the potential exists for anywhere from a trace to isolated 1" rains Sunday early Monday. Minor in comparison to IDA impact here.  In my mind Nora's PW has influenced the weather in in the central Rockies-into central Plains and we'll see a piece of it by Labor Day.  I think it's worth tracking tropical PWATS as we do Atmospheric Rivers across the Pacific for the western USA in winter. We'll see what happens. It obviously is not major but it to me appears to be coming with 850 MB wind core and an increasingly favorable 500MB jet core diving down to 40N to sweep the PWAT east toward Delmarva/NJ/LI. 

[gravitylover]

So you're not thinking rain potential Sunday morning now? 

[wdrag]

There should be showers or sprinkles Sunday morning and then if the 06z/4 HRRR is to be believed late day I95 east, and then possibly later Sunday night whatever survives with the frontal passage  from the west. 

 

I dint have much to add this morning...models differ.  

 

Nora contribution impact this morning from CO to MO, attached. Use the legend for a little more assistance.

[wdrag]

So we dawn this Sunday with leftover Nora's showery moisture approaching from the west giving sprinkles in some areas by daybreak Monday, while others have 0.1 to possibly isolated 1".  See WPC qpf for the general coverage today-tonight in 2 or three bands of 1/2-3 hours duration. It is what has been trackable for many-many days, obviously far removed from its Baha source region, having been clipped a bit by the Rockies, but will affect haying-corn retrievals here in nw NJ the next 24 hours.

[wdrag]

So even though amounts are miniscule, it is wet and not too sunny. 0.02 here in Wantage NJ at 1121AM.  Two things about this minor (so far) event,  it's trackable and I sort of wish those that are showing 10 day forecasts, would look at PWAT changes and ensembles to minimize these optimistic longer range outlooks.  Basically it rains a bit, every 3 days. Therefore if its not, we need to be sure about ridging and no instability -moisture encroachment.  For now much of nw NJ, nePA and distant interior se NYS have measured .01-.05 a bit more along the northern fringe of the NYC subforum. 

This day is far from over, and modeling continues to spew a narrow 1/2+ stripe somewhere in our NYC subforum by tomorrow morning. PWAT axis looks a little larger to the south of I80 so I suppose it can miss the region north of us, but there is likely to be a little bit of convection rolling across parts of I84 tonight.  

[gravitylover]

Another soggy day

[wdrag]

Spotty 1/2" occurred the past 24 hours... CoCoRAHS posts around 10AM.

[wdrag]

So, here is generally what happened via CoCoRaHs reports thru 930A/6 and the muted SRH Rainfall mutisensor estimates which tend to be a little on the low side in the core of the heaviest qpf.