Hurricane Ida Forecasting Contest

[yotaman]

On 8/27/2021 at 7:50 PM, yotaman said:

Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): 150 mph
Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): 140 mph
Pressure at Landfall (mb): 942 mb
Landfall Location: Port Fourchon

Well 2 out of 4 ain't bad.

[WxWatcher007]

Congrats to @yotaman, @sojitodd, and @Eskimo Joe who correctly forecasted the Port Fourchon landfall location. 

Congrats to @Cashtown_Coop for accurately predicting the minimum pressure of 930mb. 

Congrats to @alexderiemer, @cheese007, @MillvilleWx, @Jonah Cashtown_Coop, and @AU74 for correctly predicting the maximum sustained wind at landfall.

Finally, congrats to Yotaman, Cheese007, @WinterWxLuvr, and @BuffaloWeather for correctly predicting maximum sustained wind overall. 

[JC-CT]

On 8/28/2021 at 10:35 AM, JC-CT said:

Max Sustained: 155

Max Sustained at Landfall: 135

Landfall Pressure: 960

Landfall Location: Cocodrie

B+

C

F-----

B

[Floydbuster]

On 8/28/2021 at 11:54 AM, Floydbuster said:

Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): 110
Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): 110
Pressure at Landfall (mb): 954 mb
Landfall Location: Morgan City, LA

 

 

I had a few hours where I began to doubt strengthening. 

[etudiant]

Honestly, you guys should take a victory lap, you did good.

That said, I think we did not look beyond landfall enough. This storm killed way more people up here than down there, because people here got surprised.

I know the mets were screaming, but the leaders were not listening, they could not tell the difference.

[sojitodd]

14 hours ago, etudiant said:

Honestly, you guys should take a victory lap, you did good.

That said, I think we did not look beyond landfall enough. This storm killed way more people up here than down there, because people here got surprised.

I know the mets were screaming, but the leaders were not listening, they could not tell the difference.

Apparently out of 59 direct deaths 50 were in the strip from Virginia to Connecticut. only 7 in Louisiana and 2 in Mississippi. 

[yotaman]

16 hours ago, etudiant said:

Honestly, you guys should take a victory lap, you did good.

That said, I think we did not look beyond landfall enough. This storm killed way more people up here than down there, because people here got surprised.

I know the mets were screaming, but the leaders were not listening, they could not tell the difference.

Leaders were listening but the people were not. Many of those who died lived in basement apartments. People were driving thru flooded roads like the water wasn't there. 

[etudiant]

6 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Leaders were listening but the people were not. Many of those who died lived in basement apartments. People were driving thru flooded roads like the water wasn't there. 

I'd like to believe that, but I don't recollect any actions by the NYC government taken in advance. No road closures, no suggested evacuations, not a hint of concern about the impending downpour. Just post storm blather about global warming.

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

I'd like to believe that, but I don't recollect any actions by the NYC government taken in advance. No road closures, no suggested evacuations, not a hint of concern about the impending downpour. Just post storm blather about global warming.

They should have treated an extreme flood event like this similarly to how they treat a blizzard (besides the Dec 2010 one). Close all roads except for emergency personnel 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Cocodrie is quite close to Fourchon.  By water, not by car.  I was high on pressure and low on winds.  I think I was low Cat 4.