IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's where I'm leaning. Less rain more severe potential.

We have to see where the warm front sets up. Models could tick back south with it. I'd say the best shot of anything excessive now though is N/W of the city. 

[uncle W]

The ole rain gauge from 1990… since I took it out of retirement I got 8” of rain…

[donsutherland1]

NWS Upton forecast map:

[doncat]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

The ole rain gauge from 1990… since I took it out of retirement I got 8” of rain…

Good grief...The important thing is it still works!

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah never doubt a tropical origin system

Models might be underestimating that for our area

[Rjay]

Wagons actually north now

[Rjay]

18z rgem

 

[doncat]

Just now, Rjay said:

Wagons actually north now

That gradient though!

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

18z rgem

 

Wagons south

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wagons actually north now

 

Icon too

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon too

That's not a real model.  It's the metsfan of models.  Or maybe that's the Cras *shrug*.

[Rjay]

Imagine someone asking what the 18z Metsfan shows

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

The ole rain gauge from 1990… since I took it out of retirement I got 8” of rain…

Looks like a ooffee mug

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Imagine someone asking what the 18z Metsfan shows

lots of rain, lots of snow, the Mets winning and the Yankees losing lol

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's not a real model.  It's the metsfan of models.  Or maybe that's the Cras *shrug*.

My favorite is the "upside down" Korean model

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, doncat said:

That gradient though!

weenie suicides in the winter no snow for us!

 

[EasternLI]

22 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's not a real model.  It's the metsfan of models.  Or maybe that's the Cras *shrug*.

I thought this damn thing was discontinued lol. Apparently not 

[Rjay]

Just now, EasternLI said:

I thought this damn thing was discontinued lol. Apparently not 

It never dies.  I busted it out in the NE subforum during Henri. 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

Good grief...The important thing is it still works!

I measured the blizzard of 96 with that...

[SnowGoose69]

54 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wagons actually north now

Yeah if this is one of those cases where the late trend continues to game time this will be like 2 inches tops near the coast 

[MJO812]

Anyone  have the FIM?

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah if this is one of those cases where the late trend continues to game time this will be like 2 inches tops near the coast 

Awesome. Keep it going north. 

[NortheastPAWx]

Thread is useless without the KMA and Brazilian.

[Rtd208]

How much for Philly? 

[Allsnow]

I think the biggest rain totals miss the majority of the metro to the north. 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think the biggest rain totals miss the majority of the metro to the north. 

We'll get tornadoes instead.

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think the biggest rain totals miss the majority of the metro to the north. 

Hopefully the models trend southward 

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully the models trend southward 

Be careful what you wish for!  Lol.

[SnowGoose69]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll get tornadoes instead.

The bigger concern would be if it went too far north there could be strong SSW winds but certainly being we would be warm sectored at night and the system isn’t particularly deep we probably would only see those winds on the south shore of LI with gusts to 35-40 at worst.  I feel though at the moment we won’t see a big enough NW shift to get fully warm sectored but perhaps ERN LI could 

[Rtd208]

Will wait and see what the 00z runs do as far as heavy rainfall but I am also curious to see what the SPC does with the new day 1 outlook overnight. Maybe slight risk for portions of the NYC metro since things seem to be shifting north a bit currently??