IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[Brian5671]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

The 12z nam looks done by 3 am

12z is quicker but still a drencher.   JP over central PA with 10 inches.   Most models have hit that area hard for several days

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

The 12z nam looks done by 3 am

Yeah I just saw that.  Not sure about that one.  Will have to see what other models show.  It also shows that evolution with the metro “dry slot” most of the afternoon tomorrow.  That will probably verify more with drizzle and continued spotty showers 

[psv88]

In the Poconos now. On my drive here the road passed over many streams and creeks which were already out of their banks. I’m definitely not getting out of here on Thursday 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Just like before big convective snowstorms the axis of heaviest totals will shift a little each run. Last night it was North, this morning it's a little bit South. Consensus puts the heaviest totals between the LHV region and Northern NJ spreading eastward into SNE and Long Island. 

The real killer here is that some areas could see in excess of 6" in under 12 hours and this could occur over a widespread area. Several river systems in NNJ are in trouble.

When I lived in NNJ the "3-P" system (Pequannock/Pompton/Passaic) would flood if 3 people flushed toilets at the same time.  After the late May deluge in 1968, Rt 23 was closed for more than a week.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I just saw that.  Not sure about that one.  Will have to see what other models show.  It also shows that evolution with the metro “dry slot” most of the afternoon tomorrow.  That will probably verify more with drizzle and continued spotty showers 

It's basically a 6 hour event on the nam

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's basically a 6 hour event on the nam

The 3km sure appears headed for a similar evolution.  

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's basically a 6 hour event on the nam

That's all it takes sometimes to get 6"+ rains especially when you're getting 1-2" per hour rates.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's all it takes sometimes to get 6"+ rains especially when you're getting 1-2" per hour rates.

If that’s the case there is going to be major flash flooding. I’m very concerned about water table rise as well. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If that’s the case there is going to be major flash flooding. I’m very concerned about water table rise as well. 

one saving grace at least for commuters is that most of this is  later Wed eve/Thur early am before the commute

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If that’s the case there is going to be major flash flooding. I’m very concerned about water table rise as well. 

There likely will. The rains are from a once powerful tropical system not a nor'easter. 

The 10"+ amounts in PA happen in 6-10hrs. 

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

When I lived in NNJ the "3-P" system (Pequannock/Pompton/Passaic) would flood if 3 people flushed toilets at the same time.  After the late May deluge in 1968, Rt 23 was closed for more than a week.

I grew up in Pequannock/Pompton Plains. It's not as bad as it used to be but we had a stretch in 2011-2012 where we had five or six significant floods in less than a three year period. Been relatively quiet since then. 

This storm has the potential to be the most significant flood in the last 10 years.

[NJwx85]

Most of the rain falls in short order but it's not necessarily in and out in 6-8 hours.

For example the 12z 3K NAM brings rain into the area late tonight before the main convective precipitation even forms. 

Either way it looks like light to moderate rain at times well out ahead of the main show.

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There likely will. The rains are from a once powerful tropical system not a nor'easter. 

The 10"+ amounts in PA happen in 6-10hrs. 

It's a pretty prolonged event for them. Rain comes in late tonight there and goes thru at least late Wednesday afternoon. But either way 10" in 8 or 12 hours is going to be a disaster 

[Stormlover74]

Last 3 nam runs

 

[jm1220]

NAM back north again but wow at the 3k. Basically 5-9" rain for the whole subforum. 

[qg_omega]

what time does this start?  I thought tomorrow night but now looks like by 8am?

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

what time does this start?  I thought tomorrow night but now looks like by 8am?

the main show is late tomorrow night.   Lighter rains from tomorrow AM throughout the day....

[gpsnavigator]

This could really suck for the area.  One issue that is particularly bad here of late is the bugs.  We don't live in a low or wet area prone to standing water either.  But walking the dog anytime after about 7:30 requires virtually every piece of skin covered along with a bug net for my head.  If you're wondering who the fool is out with jeans and long sleeves when it's 80 degrees and humid, well that'd be me and bugs would be the reason.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

This could really suck for the area.  One issue that is particularly bad here of late is the bugs.  We don't live in a low or wet area prone to standing water either.  But walking the dog anytime after about 7:30 requires virtually every piece of skin covered along with a bug net for my head.  If you're wondering who the fool is out with jeans and long sleeves when it's 80 degrees and humid, well that'd be me and bugs would be the reason.

it's odd-I'm in a different area than you but I have not noticed it being buggy here this year-actually seems less buggy which makes no sense given all the rain since Memorial day weekend

[forkyfork]

as always we're in the biggest threat zone but banding location won't be known until it develops

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's odd-I'm in a different area than you but I have not noticed it being buggy here this year-actually seems less buggy which makes no sense given all the rain since Memorial day weekend

I got like 5 mosquito bites last week at a Mets game.  I don’t think in my life I was ever bitten inside the stadium before 

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I got like 5 mosquito bites last week at a Mets game.  I don’t think in my life I was ever bitten inside the stadium before 

Thank you, SG69. I was wondering why they started winning. As always ..

[NJwx85]

12z WRF-ARW High res. Pockets of 6"+

[kat5hurricane]

29 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

This could really suck for the area.  One issue that is particularly bad here of late is the bugs.  We don't live in a low or wet area prone to standing water either.  But walking the dog anytime after about 7:30 requires virtually every piece of skin covered along with a bug net for my head.  If you're wondering who the fool is out with jeans and long sleeves when it's 80 degrees and humid, well that'd be me and bugs would be the reason.

Same here and it's really bad in my area of Whitestone because I live right near the water so, even more bugs. I feel like I'm smacking my arm and/or legs at least a few times every time I take my dog for his late evening walk. It's the night time walks that are the worst. This year is particularly bad because of all the rain and humidity that we've had.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem has a swath of 8 to 10" from Philly to Western suffolk

[winterwx21]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem has a swath of 8 to 10" from Philly to Western suffolk

 

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem has a swath of 8 to 10" from Philly to Western suffolk

Yeah heaviest just slightly to the south of us on the RGEM. It brings the really heavy rains in around 6pm and the really heavy stuff falls in about a 6 hour period.

[NJwx85]

Quite a big shift North on the RGEM. Coming into a consensus now. I suspect it might not be finished correcting. The trough has been trending more amplified. 

[SnowGoose69]

I had not checked but someone just pointed out to me how the 06Z Euro moved towards the faster solution idea and the 12Z models have all joined that.  

[Snowlover11]

so it might rain? jesus.  some of these rainfall totals are down right scary, we could be talking about widespread flooding come thursday.

[jm1220]

Looks like overall a trend back north here. RGEM shifted quite a bit. GFS has the heaviest rain along I-84.