IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wagons north 

Not yet 

Gfs time 

[Neblizzard]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not yet 

Gfs time 

It’s going to be further south than the 18z EURO and 0z NAM. An absolute soaker for the metro. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

It’s going to be further south than the 18z EURO and 0z NAM. An absolute soaker for the metro. 

 

[SI Mailman]

I'm fine if the bulk of the rain falls between 0z and 12z, which looks like what the models are showing.  I have no desire to work in an all day monsoon.  

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

It’s going to be further south than the 18z EURO and 0z NAM. An absolute soaker for the metro. 

It also has a lot of rain Wednesday whereas the nam holds off most of the rain until late at night

[gmendevils8204]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Sheeesh. Good excuse to stay in bed or stay home and binge watch something Wednesday and Thursday.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

That was my first winter with a drivers license. I used to borrow dads car after dropping him at the train station. At least once a week I'd leave from there to go skiing rather than to school. I'd drive up to Hunter and ski all day then get back in time to pick him up. I almost missed a few times  It was a good winter on LI but only in relation to the times, it was an average (which meant pretty good) winter in the Catskills. 

Sorry all for the thread drift...

lol I used to walk to school 2 miles and back 2 miles I hated all the icy roads.  We had back to back 4-5 inch  snow storms both at night and I never saw a flake of either because I was sleeping and lots of cold which is what the 80s were known for (in January anyway)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Canadian models are south. Ukie and gfs are in the middle.  The Euro and NAM are north. 

well the relative positions of the models have stayed the same, but they have all shifted north of where they were before.

 

[Rtd208]

[dmillz25]

40 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I wonder if they’ll highlight an area for high risk today?

[EasternLI]

Ooof 00z Euro

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Ooof 00z Euro

So much for the wagons North comments. The RGEM has been consistently too far South and other than a blip run here or there the rest of the models have been locked in on a solid 4-6” here with locally higher amounts.

[Rjay]

Ukie

 

[Rjay]

6z gfs

 

[Rjay]

0z NAM

 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

NAM

 

That's the 0z map. The 6z has 4"+ for the area from I-80 and Tappan Zee bridge south. It definitely shifted south with the rain. So did the GFS. 

[MJO812]

6z Nam

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That's the 0z map. The 6z has 4"+ for the area from I-80 and Tappan Zee bridge south. It definitely shifted south with the rain. So did the GFS. 

I meant to post the 0z and 6z.

 

6z NAM

 

[jm1220]

Looks like there's consensus forming which unfortunately looks like the heaviest rain across the metro area/NJ/LI. RGEM shifted north at 6z when it's been south for a while. 5" for the south shore and 4" elsewhere around NYC/LI. 7" rain in Monmouth/Ocean Counties. Hudson Valley/N NJ mostly 1-3". 

[Brian5671]

many places will get 1 month plus of rain in 12-18 hrs...

[uncle W]

just like snow maps these might be over done...but even half the amounts shown will cause some flooding in the usual spots...

[wdrag]

Little to add: My own expected tomorrow morning rainfall of 1/2-iso 3.5" of rainfall between 4A-Noon in I78-I80 NJ-NYC metro cannot be a PRE since just below criteria in distance, timing, and amount but this will be precursor event (plenty of banding support).  The 03z/31 SREF ensemble qpf for LGA is appended...total ~4" there.   The action between PIT and MRB at 750A (now), is a start and only with modest lift. That lift intensifies early Wed in our area. 

Continuing thread as initiated last week with minor title change confirmations. For now staying with max 8". Power outages a wild card dependent on wind gusts exceeding 40 knots... for now I expect some power outages but this is not an easy parameter to predict due to uncertainty on wind gusts but this risk exists.

TOR: My guess from modeling is that central NJ may see a TOR early THU morning per modeled SIG TOR PARM nearing a value of 1 on the our southern edge. Needs further review in future times.

River flooding will be significant with potential for a couple MAJOR in NJ/PA dependent on River BASIN ensemble qpf equaled or exceeded.  

Worst of remnant IDA should occur 4A-Noon Thursday.  Leave plenty of extra time time, if driving. Expect detours, cars stuck in water in your typical flood prone areas, and then coming home Thu eve, the river rises will have started their bigger impact.   Thursday is probably a good day to be more careful weatherwise.  

[SnoSki14]

52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So much for the wagons North comments. The RGEM has been consistently too far South and other than a blip run here or there the rest of the models have been locked in on a solid 4-6” here with locally higher amounts.

Wagons south then? 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wagons south then? 

6z euro  is a SNE special 

[NJwx85]

Just like before big convective snowstorms the axis of heaviest totals will shift a little each run. Last night it was North, this morning it's a little bit South. Consensus puts the heaviest totals between the LHV region and Northern NJ spreading eastward into SNE and Long Island. 

The real killer here is that some areas could see in excess of 6" in under 12 hours and this could occur over a widespread area. Several river systems in NNJ are in trouble.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Just like before big convective snowstorms the axis of heaviest totals will shift a little each run. Last night it was North, this morning it's a little bit South. Consensus puts the heaviest totals between the LHV region and Northern NJ spreading eastward into SNE and Long Island. 

The real killer here is that some areas could see in excess of 6" in under 12 hours and this could occur over a widespread area. Several river systems in NNJ are in trouble.

The water table for most areas must be high enough that basements will flood with those kind of totals even away from rivers. Not good. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The water table for most areas must be high enough that basements will flood with those kind of totals even away from rivers. Not good. 

Reminiscing of August 2011 for sure but obviously not quite as extreme. 

[JerseyWx]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The water table for most areas must be high enough that basements will flood with those kind of totals even away from rivers. Not good. 

Definitely expecting basement flooding.  I haven't had to add water to the pool all summer, maybe just once.  That never happens.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro prolongs the event like 6-8 hours longer than any model.  The fact the NAM which is normally a turtle with everything is faster than the Euro tells me this is mostly done by 11am Thu vs 2-4pm as the Euro has shown

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro prolongs the event like 6-8 hours longer than any model.  The fact the NAM which is normally a turtle with everything is faster than the Euro tells me this is mostly done by 11am Thu vs 2-4pm as the Euro has shown

The 12z nam looks done by 3 am