IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[hudsonvalley21]

[doncat]

Canadian models more south with u.s. and 6z euro north.

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, doncat said:

Canadian models more south with u.s. and 6z euro north.

Ukie also went south but not as dramatically as the Canadians 

 

[sferic]

Would winds >30mph be an issue for Long Island with Ida's remnants or are flooding rains the main threat?

[nycwinter]

i also doubt any 90's will happen again until next spring..

[uncle W]

meh...even the years with record lows the end of August ahd a warm up close to 90 in September...1986 comes to mind...it had one of the coolest endings to August and one of the warmest endings to September...

[Newman]

[Brian5671]

Wow Euro

[NYGiantsFan99]

33 minutes ago, Newman said:

uhhhhhhhh… this is starting to get real serious real fast

[SnoSki14]

45 minutes ago, Newman said:

Seems like a compromise between the south/north models would put the NYC metro in the crosshairs.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6” of rain after the the recent rains will cause major problems. When we had 10+ inches in October 05 on the island the whole water table rose on my parents block and flooded everyone’s basements 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

6” of rain after the the recent rains will cause major problems. When we had 10+ inches in October 05 on the island the whole water table rose on my parents block and flooded everyone’s basements 

There won't be 10" of rain from this but the 4-6" here for most would definitely cause problems. Probably lots of flooding near any rivers which I'm sure are still full from runoff during Henri. 

[wdrag]

Have no changes to previous days outlooks and as highlighted in the thread headline through the 12z/30 op data and 123z/30 GEFS/EPS qpf data. Do have to account for some non GFS/EC modeling south, but for now the ENS dictate the concerns. PLEASE follow NWS watches/warnings/statements, especially RIVER/small stream/basement flooding that is likely for portions of our area. Wind gusts still an unknown so not playing that up.

Tomorrow morning, if everything is on track will highlight MODERATE to possibly ISOLATED Major impact. We will have seen worse in the past decade.

PRE: I think is likely though it may stray slightly from the 1000KM 24 hr separation requirements. I still need to recheck those requirements in a PPT that I haven't yet found, on line.   AND we need a 4+" requirement, which am unsure will be met-am not following local data there along the OHIO River.  Still,  i see guidance that successfully pointed to what I think is a PRE near the OHIO River (slightly further s of where i thought this morning, but do see there attached). It should reform in southern PA tomorrow and drift into NJ by 4AM Wednesday, drifting ene from there. Whether it colocates with the subsequent TC torrential rainfall???

 

 

 

[uncle W]

the amount of rain we get will depend on the exact track of Ida and the speed she is going...in any event it will be wet...

[MJO812]

I feel like I'm living in Seattle this past week

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I feel like I'm living in Seattle this past summer

FIXED

[matt8204]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

meh...even the years with record lows the end of August ahd a warm up close to 90 in September...1986 comes to mind...it had one of the coolest endings to August and one of the warmest endings to September...

Heck, I remember a Giants/Jets game in October of 2007 where it was about 85 degrees at kickoff.  I think it nearly hit 90 on Columbus Day the following year as well.

[bluewave]

The best shot of 10”+ will be where the front stalls out. Mesos should be interesting tomorrow. Very impressive stationary torrential banding signal showing up.

 

[nycwinter]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I feel like I'm living in Seattle this past week

seattle usually cooler in the summer then nyc..

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

seattle usually cooler in the summer then nyc..

And far drier. Dewpoint is 48 right now

[wdrag]

Bluewave posted a favorite of mine... showing the high likelihood of banded rainfall pert the NAM later Wednesday.

Below I add what I think is more than enough NAFGEN in the 800-600layer and also the 900-500 layer to get sizable qpf convection going in southern PA by late in the day tomorrow-Tuesday.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, sferic said:

Would winds >30mph be an issue for Long Island with Ida's remnants or are flooding rains the main threat?

I think any big winds would be behind the system.  NNE winds gusting in the 30s are standard here so the tree roots would tolerate it decently well, even with soaked ground.  Question would be if we clear a bunch late Wed Am/Thu aftn..if we do and the Euro is right with those wild 45-55kt 925 winds we could mix it down.  Its on its own though at the moment.  I feel based off ensembles that the warm sector punching in here is becoming less likely, the low will probably go south or close to overhead.  Even if we did warm sector in the hypothetical scenario the low somehow went over NE PA or SE NY it would occur during the hours of like 3-7am which would make it harder to mix down any strong S-SW winds

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

6” of rain after the the recent rains will cause major problems. When we had 10+ inches in October 05 on the island the whole water table rose on my parents block and flooded everyone’s basements 

Yep….same happened to me. I had water coming through the cracks of my basement for 2 straight days. That was a crappy weekend.
 

I was renting at the time and my landlord did nothing so me and a few buddies stayed on water patrol until this guy finally showed up on Monday morning. Needless to say, I gave him a rent check that was half the amount because I figured that was about the amount of work I did. He bitched about it and I dared him to take me to court. I’d estimate I had a good 9-10”. I lost about 90% of my baseball cards and all my vinyl. My wife lost a lot of her family pics. I learned a rough lesson…don’t pack valuables in cardboard boxes. 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Yep….same happened to me. I had water coming through the cracks of my basement for 2 straight days. That was a crappy weekend.
 

I was renting at the time and my landlord did nothing so me and a few buddies stayed on water patrol until this guy finally showed up on Monday morning. Needless to say, I gave him a rent check that was half the amount because I figured that was about the amount of work I did. He bitched about it and I dared him to take me to court. I’d estimate I had a good 9-10”. I lost about 90% of my baseball cards and all my vinyl. My wife lost a lot of her family pics. I learned a rough lesson…don’t pack valuables in cardboard boxes. 

That was crazy here too-remember it well.  Yep, pack the stuff in rubbermaid totes with lids....

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

meh...even the years with record lows the end of August ahd a warm up close to 90 in September...1986 comes to mind...it had one of the coolest endings to August and one of the warmest endings to September...

what the heck happened in 1983?

JFK had 5 90+ days in September?  even came close to hitting 100....

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Newman said:

NEWMAN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  @!#%$^y&&*u

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Seems like a compromise between the south/north models would put the NYC metro in the crosshairs.

Dont you wish we get this kind of output in winter.....with snow of course.

 

[Brian5671]

18Z wet like the Euro....

---

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

18Z wet like the Euro....

I saw a 10" pop in there, not looking good

 

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The best shot of 10”+ will be where the front stalls out. Mesos should be interesting tomorrow. Very impressive stationary torrential banding signal showing up.

 

What’s the gray area mean? (Slightly sarcastic). The Passaic/Pompton/Rockaway, etc. are going to cause problems.