IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The always part is the short term correction north by the models that we have been accustomed to. We can remember Henri PRE was supposed be located in Philly but instead was focused in Brooklyn. This frequent model correction north may be related to the stronger WAR and record SST warmth east of New England. 

That's fair but you're the only one to word it that way today.  

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The always part is the short term correction north by the models that we have been accustomed to. We can remember Henri PRE was supposed be located in Philly but instead was focused in Brooklyn. This frequent model correction north may be related to the stronger WAR and record SST warmth east of New England. 

Yes. The storm amplified more at the end, and as always the ridge seemed to get stronger and drive everything north. A few days ago actually may have been more accurate in that models were trending north of NYC for the heaviest rain, but then we had the head fake back south for a day. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC Metro Is much wider than Central Park. Not sure why so many IMBY posts. This is how winter storm threads get derailed. Posters from the whole region should feel welcome to post here. This forum would be much too small if the focus was artificially narrowed to a very small geographic region.

 

I wouldn't put Ocean County, Pike,  Sussex, or Orange, Putnam, Ulster Dutchess, or Litchfield Counties in NYC metro area for forecasting purposes (especially in winter).  

[jm1220]

Well …. RGEM still has a ton of rain, 4-6” some spots more for I-95, NYC/LI and less NW. It’s either in for a huge coup or slamming flat on its face. 

[Rmine1]

No rain or 10”, just be done with the humidity already! I’m running two dehumidifiers 24/7 and I’m starting to grow mold on my bald head. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Well …. RGEM still has a ton of rain, 4-6” some spots more for I-95, NYC/LI and less NW. It’s either in for a huge coup or slamming flat on its face. 

it's generally been south the whole time-2 days ago it had the best rains in S NJ and little up here.  So have to factor that in....

[NJwx85]

4-6" for everyone.

Some will get a little less and some will get a little more.

It's really not hard.

The problem is most of it will fall in a very short period of time and it will be widespread.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

4-6" for everyone.

Some will get a little less and some will get a little more.

It's really not hard.

The problem is most of it will fall in a very short period of time and it will be widespread.

everyone wants the jackpot in their backyard....

[donsutherland1]

Through 11 am, Scranton has picked up 1.77” of rain. Much lighter amounts have been recorded in and around New York City and Newark. However, the main event will be tonight as Ida comes eastward.

The 12z RGEM remains super aggressive. The 12z HREF shows the heaviest rains somewhat to the north and west of the RGEM. The National Blend of Models still shows 3.5”+ of rain overnight in EWR and NYC.

So, considering the other guidance and somewhat discounting the RGEM as a worst-case scenario, it appears that NYC and EWR will probably see 3”-4” of rain. North and west of those regions, including northern New Jersey, Westchester/Rockland/Putnam/Dutchess Counties, into Connecticut, 4”-6” of rain with local amounts near or above 8” appears likely. Islip will probably see 2”-3” of rain, but some locally higher amounts are possible in Nassau and Suffolk Counties.

[Brian5671]

looping the temp maps on some of the models the warm front gets to about Long Island and that's about it.   My area never gets out of the 60's while its 75 on LI this evening....

[forkyfork]

maybe look at the CAMs before declaring bust

[bluewave]

HREF has its localized 10”+ potential just north and west of a line from Philly to NYC and NE into SNE.

 

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

everyone wants the jackpot in their backyard....

This is rain we're talking about. 

Haven't people had enough rain this summer.

I'm glad things trended drier and the north trend means more severe potential which is more exciting than a rain storm imo.

However I still think we get nailed later on. I'd be shocked if we get less than 2"

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

That's fair but you're the only one to word it that way today.  

It also happens in the winter.  I'm trying to remember when I first noticing this.....probably the 1993-94 winter?  It was more pronounced in 1995-96 and of course really got going in 2005.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is rain we're talking about. 

Haven't people had enough rain this summer.

I'm glad things trended drier and the north trend means more severe potential which is more exciting than a rain storm imo.

However I still think we get nailed later on. I'd be shocked if we get less than 2"

Hopefully we get neither, I'm way more excited about the dry and cool period coming up.

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully we get neither, I'm way more excited about the dry and cool period coming up.

so am i.. i cant wait for cool days chilly night dry temps.. but i would not mind one last hurrah for a real soaker gloomy late summer day..

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

HREF has its localized 10”+ potential just north and west of a line from Philly to NYC and NE into SNE.

 

Is that 10-15 just south of Allentown or is that 15-20?  How is that even possible when the storm will be long gone by tomorrow?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, nycwinter said:

so am i.. i cant wait for cool days chilly night dry temps.. but i would not mind one last hurray for a real soaker gloomy late summer day..

Yeah, as long as Labor Day weekend is as awesome as it looks, we might finally be in store for a run of nice weekends, great timing for early Fall too.

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah, as long as Labor Day weekend is as awesome as it looks, we might finally be in store for a run of nice weekends, great timing for early Fall too.

 

At least one of the 3 summer long weekends appears to have nice weather....

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I’m currently in the Southern Poconos and it’s been pouring for hours. There is already minor flooding on the lawns and grassy areas. I’d imagine the streams etc are already over their banks. Can’t imagine what it be like later

 

 

ugh Lake Harmony right?  Keep us posted, I'm worried about my house over there.

The grass was already waterlogged last weekend

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

ugh Lake Harmony right?  Keep us posted, I'm worried about my house over there.

The grass was already waterlogged last weekend

 

Albrightsville technically. We have had about an inch so far, but its really pouring now. The yard is already getting flooded. Its going to be really ugly here tonight. 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is that 10-15 just south of Allentown or is that 15-20?  How is that even possible when the storm will be long gone by tomorrow?

 

Localized 10”+ where the best training of convection sets up. Since the rainfall rates will be so extreme, areas near and west of NYC could see most of their rainfall accumulation between 0z and 6z. The storm should be well to our east by early on Wednesday.

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is that 10-15 just south of Allentown or is that 15-20?  How is that even possible when the storm will be long gone by tomorrow?

 

10-15. Orographic enhancement likely contributes.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, psv88 said:

Albrightsville technically. We have had about an inch so far, but its really pouring now. The yard is already getting flooded. Its going to be really ugly here tonight. 

wow we are (temporarily) neighbors!  I'm within about 10 min of the Albrightsville Post Office.  If you do any shopping there go by Pine Point Plaza, it's on Rte 309.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Localized 10”+ where the best training of convection sets up. Since the rainfall rates will be so extreme, areas near and west of NYC could see most of their rainfall accumulation between 0z and 6z. The storm should be well to our east by early on Wednesday.

For some reason this reminds me of the overnight part of the storm we had in January 2011.....we had 5"/hr rates for a few hours and ended up with 19" when most were calling bust because precip was light or nonexistent during the day.

 

[psv88]

Flash Flood Warning for my area now. Here we go

Flash Flood Warning
PAC025-089-012015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0065.210901T1607Z-210901T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1207 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Carbon County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Western Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 1207 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
  have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly. A few inches of additional rainfall is expected through
  the afternoon.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
  Lehighton, Mount Pocono, Tobyhanna, Jim Thorpe, Nesquehoning,
  Weatherly, Meckesville, Albrightsville, Lake Harmony, Jonas,
  Blakeslee, and Pocono Raceway.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 277 and 302.
Interstate 380 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 12.
Northeast Extension between mile markers 73 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4082 7589 4091 7599 4101 7573 4105 7577
      4109 7577 4113 7569 4112 7563 4122 7554
      4125 7513 4118 7515 4094 7544 4079 7568
      4076 7579

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

[Intensewind002]

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

 

NJ has become a mini tornado alley in the past few years

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

10-15. Orographic enhancement likely contributes.

That's an interesting region for that to happen....Don, think that corrects further north where the higher peaks are?  I'm thinking from around Hazleton to Mt Pocono.

 

[Maureen]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

everyone wants the jackpot in their backyard....

Only if it’s cash or coins!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, psv88 said:

Flash Flood Warning for my area now. Here we go

Flash Flood Warning
PAC025-089-012015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0065.210901T1607Z-210901T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1207 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Carbon County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Western Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 1207 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
  have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly. A few inches of additional rainfall is expected through
  the afternoon.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
  Lehighton, Mount Pocono, Tobyhanna, Jim Thorpe, Nesquehoning,
  Weatherly, Meckesville, Albrightsville, Lake Harmony, Jonas,
  Blakeslee, and Pocono Raceway.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 277 and 302.
Interstate 380 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 12.
Northeast Extension between mile markers 73 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4082 7589 4091 7599 4101 7573 4105 7577
      4109 7577 4113 7569 4112 7563 4122 7554
      4125 7513 4118 7515 4094 7544 4079 7568
      4076 7579

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Ugh!