IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The latest HRRR shifted slightly North again with heaviest totals over extreme NNJ and the LHV. I don't buy that scenario. I think it's already too far North with the precipitation shield and way underdone in the I-80 corridor. 

The models seem too far north. Look at all the convection in SNJ.

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models seem too far north. Look at all the convection in SNJ.

That supercell to the West of Toms River blew up fast.

[Snowlover11]

huge storm near toms river

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

huge storm near toms river

 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That supercell to the West of Toms River blew up fast.

Yep just told my friend who lives there to get the dogs ready. Poor dogs

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The latest HRRR shifted slightly North again with heaviest totals over extreme NNJ and the LHV. I don't buy that scenario. I think it's already too far North with the precipitation shield and way underdone in the I-80 corridor. 

it does look like a bit of a dry slot coming for NYC and south based on current radar

[greenmtnwx]

Those northerly solutions are looking good. Aside from scattered heavy rains in storms this will generally be a non-event for heavy rain and flooding NYC south.

[Allsnow]

Looks like nyc and nnj will dry slot for a while after the morning rains. Should be a extended break until whatever happens tonight. 06z euro and icon were less then a inch for nyc 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

 

Yep just told my friend who lives there to get the dogs ready. Poor dogs

It’s on the warm front

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Reminds me of models trying to jump the warm front too far north into the CAD during a winter storm.

The activity is
focused in an elevated fashion northeast of a quasi-stationary
front draped from central VA east to the Delmarva, and along the
north side of a well-defined instability gradient pooled along it.

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0919&yr=2021

NYC could see less than one inch total

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

Those northerly solutions are looking good. Aside from scattered heavy rains in storms this will generally be a non-event for heavy rain and flooding NYC south.

Yup. Nyc is caught between the heavy rain to the north and the severe threat in the mid Atlantic. The euro did a great job with this 

[NortheastPAWx]

So...bust for NYC?

[Snowlover11]

the dryslot was a given, nyc heavy rain doesnt come till late afternoon/evening

[NJwx85]

New SPC outlook is out. The 10% tornado threat has been expanded Northward to about Staten Island.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[NJwx85]

We always knew it wasn't going to rain all day. The question is, when the convection comes in later, will it be focused more over Central, Northern NJ or will it be more of a North Jersey, Hudson Valley focus.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like nyc and nnj will dry slot for a while after the morning rains. Should be a extended break until whatever happens tonight. 06z euro and icon were less then a inch for nyc 

This was always supposed to play out like this. Have to get some clearing for awhile if we're going to destabilize enough to support the convection. 

[Brian5671]

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

Facts

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

In agreement... we'll let the #s decide what model did best tomorrow morning at 10 or whenever we get a chance to post.  I think its highly premature to bet on NORTH of HPCHREF HRRR being the more accurate.  Suggest be ready for the a lions worth coming 5P-midnight.  I'll live with WPC forecast which also highlights HPC HREF etc. Will check back late today. Enjoy the midday break along I80, if it occurs. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We always knew it wasn't going to rain all day. The question is, when the convection comes in later, will it be focused more over Central, Northern NJ or will it be more of a North Jersey, Hudson Valley focus.

The NYC metro and LI might fluke their way to 3-4 inches anyway because you may get rogue cells in the 02-08z period which could drop like a half inch in 20 minutes on the southern end of the precip shield that move through.  So while they spend most of the night south of the worst activity by a decent margin they could just pile up the total amounts via those brief bouts of heavy rain.  The Euro continues to have stupid 925 winds out of the NNE in the 09-12z period which I do not buy.  Models finally coming into some agreement in the 00-04z period on 925 winds of 30-42kts it so.  Only the HRRR shows over 50 now.  I think JFK east to west Suffolk could see some gusts 160-18025G38 or so in that 4 hour window, mostly within 3-5 miles of the coast.  Middle island and north shore probably not unstable enough/more frictional effects won’t mix as well

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

The precipitation in Pa is moving NNE into sne. We will get whatever swings through as the remnants of IDA pulls away. So basically a 2-3 hour window after 8pm to pull off heavy rain totals in nyc. IMO this will be no big deal around the area. We shall see what happens 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The precipitation in Pa is moving NNE into sne. We will get whatever swings through as the remnants of IDA pulls away. So basically a 2-3 hour window after 8pm to pull off heavy rain totals in nyc. IMO this will be no big deal around the area. We shall see what happens 

Perhaps from NYC south.  Many models crush the northern part of the Metro area.  Will be a close call.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

And this makes sense given the radar.

This isnt a coastal storm.

A lot of people are looking at this thinking the radar is going to magically fill-in like it’s a Low forming off the Delmarva in January

[qg_omega]

Euro may have the rare victory here

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

And this makes sense given the radar.

This isnt a coastal storm.

A lot of people are looking at this thinking the radar is going to magically fill-in like it’s a Low forming off the Delmarva in January

I would shift those heavy totals in northern nj about 100 miles north west 

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

I’m not saying anything was wrong.

I’m saying I agree with the drier model by looking at the radar and movement of cells.

 

 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

Practice for the winter

People already calling a storm a bust before it starts

[Stormlover74]

I'll gladly take 1 to 2" of rain over 5

[Snowlover11]

alot of  tossing in here, im sure you guys will be singing a different tune in 6-8 hours from now.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

 

5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

And this makes sense given the radar.

This isnt a coastal storm.

A lot of people are looking at this thinking the radar is going to magically fill-in like it’s a Low forming off the Delmarva in January

You're making it sound like this storm is going to Buffalo. Long Island was never forecasted to receive the highest totals and it was always a close call for NYC proper. With that being said, the further North the warm front makes it the greater the severe threat.

[jets]

Euro is matching current obs?. Not buying it. Whoever is just north of front will get hammered. To say it’s no big deal is ridiculous