IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[NJwx85]

New HRRR. Locally up to 10" over NNJ and SE NY.

We need less location specific posts. The NYC metro is larger than your backyard.

[jets]

Just FYI 6z nam is suppose to have me at 71-72 degrees now.  I am at 67!. Again models being over aggressive on northward push 

[jets]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

New HRRR. Locally up to 10" over NNJ and SE NY.

We need less location specific posts. The NYC metro is larger than your backyard.

Wouldn’t shock me if higher amounts correct a bit more south since warm front is not in a hurry

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jets said:

Wouldn’t shock me if higher amounts correct a bit more south since warm front is not in a hurry

where is the front currently?

[SnowGoose69]

With a a 998mb surface low the warm front won't have any issue reaching up to LI/NYC.  Only in the absence of a surface reflection will it get hung up down near BLM/TTN.  There is some tendency for them to hang up more at night but given the surface low pushing through in the evening its realistic for the front to get up to JFK/EWR roughly.

[Dark Star]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Practice for the winter

People already calling a storm a bust before it starts

Some models called for the bullseye of the precipitation to be over NYC metro area, others called for it to be north of the area.  Models that called for the heaviest totals north of the area look like may be correct, while the other models will not.  In the winter, us Snow Geese would call this a bust.

[jets]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where is the front currently?

Extreme southern ocean county just north of Atlantic City to upper delmarva 

[Rtd208]

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, jets said:

Extreme southern ocean county just north of Atlantic City to upper delmarva 

Correct.  You won’t see it move much til 17Z when it should then blast up close to BLM by 20z or so.  It’ll then hang up there til the surface low gets far enough north to force it up to around Staten Island to southern Queens and LI around 00z 

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, jets said:

Euro is matching current obs?. Not buying it. Whoever is just north of front will get hammered. To say it’s no big deal is ridiculous 

Oh it’ll be a big deal somewhere. But the trend is for it to be N of NYC. 1-3” rain there is no big deal. Henri was 8” in Central Park. I’ll gladly take a pass on this one. Not in any way saying it’ll be a bust. The Hudson Valley, Catskills etc will get slammed for sure. 

[larrye]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

They're not weenie posts. They're posts based on current radar observations and model pattern changes.

[larrye]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Practice for the winter

People already calling a storm a bust before it starts

vs. those who wishcast.

[Stormlover74]

The nam gfs and Euro vs ukmet and the Canadians that insisted the heaviest would be central NJ to LI

[rclab]

1 minute ago, larrye said:

vs. those who wishcast.

Good morning larrye. Well at least with each other, they are both in good company. As always …

[Brian5671]

some of the mets in the NE thread sounding the alarm for a serious event SE NY/CT

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

some of the mets in the NE thread sounding the alarm for a serious event SE NY/CT

CT is in for some serious flooding 

[Allsnow]

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A large portion of the NYC metro will get nailed. Look at Bluewaves map of the metro area. Just because Edison NJ won’t jackpot doesn’t mean it won’t be a big deal. 

[Rjay]

Idk wtf so many of you are talking about.  The Euro was awful if NYC only gets an inch of rain.  Here's the last bunch of Euro runs.

 

 

Also, this was not always supposed to be a nyc and north event.  I have no idea why it's so hard to be objective.  

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Oh it’ll be a big deal somewhere. But the trend is for it to be N of NYC. 1-3” rain there is no big deal. Henri was 8” in Central Park. I’ll gladly take a pass on this one. Not in any way saying it’ll be a bust. The Hudson Valley, Catskills etc will get slammed for sure. 

Agree.  

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

A large portion of the NYC metro will get nailed. Look at Bluewaves map of the metro area. Just because Edison NJ won’t jackpot doesn’t mean it won’t be a big deal. 

Still a chance the heavy rain makes it a little further south and gets the northern part of NYC/our area especially with 4-6” rain. The Nam 3K would certainly do it. We’ll have to see what happens overnight. But yes CT and Hudson Valley look to get slammed here. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Idk wtf so many of you are talking about.  The Euro was awful if NYC only gets an inch of rain.  Here's the last bunch of Euro runs.

 

Also, this was not always supposed to be a nyc and north event.  I have no idea why it's so hard to be objective.  

Actually it was supposed to be for a few runs 

[psv88]

I’m currently in the Southern Poconos and it’s been pouring for hours. There is already minor flooding on the lawns and grassy areas. I’d imagine the streams etc are already over their banks. Can’t imagine what it be like later

 

 

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Actually it was supposed to be for a few runs 

2 runs.  It's clear there's a north trend on most of the models the past 24hrs but it's bs to say it was always supposed to be north. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

2 runs.  It's clear there's a north trend on most of the models the past 24hrs but it's bs to say it was always supposed to be north. 

Yup. Yesterday at this time it looked like a consensus was bringing the heaviest rain over NYC/metro area. 

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Idk wtf so many of you are talking about.  The Euro was awful if NYC only gets an inch of rain.  Here's the last bunch of Euro runs.

 

Also, this was not always supposed to be a nyc and north event.  I have no idea why it's so hard to be objective.  

Lets not call awful before the event 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Lets not call awful before the event 

You literally can't read

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup. Yesterday at this time it looked like a consensus was bringing the heaviest rain over NYC/metro area. 

Still could verify that way.  Look at Henri with it's 7-9 inches of rain near NYC-no model had that.  Tropical systems can be unpredictable and also dump much more rain that forecast

[nycwinter]

ih

10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's not dry it just takes the heaviest north and west

i hope we get 4 or 5  inches in central park so we can be well on our way to the third straight month of 10 inches of rain.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, nycwinter said:

ih

i hope we get 4 or 5  inches in central park so we can be well on our way to the third straight month of 10 inches of rain.

That’d be a nice head start....